I can’t find this video anymore, but I watched something with this guy who elucidated a lot of this. The main points were that a country in the global south is likely to do some kind of cheap solar irradiation management to turn down the heat, which is a couple million a year, so countries like Bangladesh or Venezuela could do it relatively cheaply.

I think the main gist of the lecture was the cynical idea that “people loot before they starve”. So, central america will likely see migrations into the states and canada in a way that we are only seeing the beginnings of today. Right now the border is open because capitalists like cheap labor. in the future, they might close the border, but apparently the only way we know how to do that effectively is through the credible threat of killing those who trespass.

Furthermore, the idea was that europe will be extremely divided since the sahara will park itself on spain and italy, so that extreme desertification will cause those landmasses to be abandoned, which will be a problem for parts of west eurasia that are further north