The poll would have to be about a specific candidate. Not voting third party in general.
Third party in general just means that most people are sick of the two candidates in top. This could mean that we are splitting The 60% between five third-party candidates. This means the Democratic and Republican candidates are still on top?
Now if 60% of the people were interested in voting for the green candidate specifically. Then I’m very interested and a big funny is about to happen to the Republican or Democratic candidate.
When polls ask people who they intend to vote for, they would tell them that they intend to vote for the Democrats, because they consider the Greens nonviable.
But I now that I am re-reading it I see that I had misinterpreted it. I thought you were implying that polls only ask questions about voting and not option. This was my bad. Sorry.
It’s an important point, because you presented it as a form of evidence that could be used to show when “it’s time” for everyone to switch to a third party, and then completely rejected it for that purpose right after. Which leaves us back at square one, which is that there is no means of coordinating a sudden switch or recognizing when such a switch would be viable. And without that, your whole position collapses.
Your argument boils down to “We would need a thing that easily could exist and maybe currently doesn’t exist and that’s why this is an unsolvable problem.”
So, in your mind, if someone did this favorability poll you want, and it showed, say, 60% favorability for the Green Party, you would vote for them, and you imagine that the majority of Democratic voters would all spontaneous switch their votes over together?
Go ahead and ask that to people you know, irl or people online: “If there was a poll showing a third party with 60% (or higher!) favorability, would that cause you to switch your vote? Would you expect it to cause others to switch their votes?” I can already tell you the answer you’ll get.
I hate to say this, but the fact that you think this is such a trivial problem tells me that you must be young, and there are no words I can say that are a substitute for experience. I recognize your mindset because I’ve had it myself, you want to drive a rational answer and the world can simply bend around to what you come up with. You want an answer that’s simply correct, because you don’t want to face a difficult decision, you don’t want to deal with the fact that both courses of action have some validity to them and either one comes with potential negative repercussions.
Let me give you a piece of advice - there are two types of ideas, ones that are molded around reality, and ones that are molded around psychological needs. The ones molded around psychological needs are always more appealing (assuming you have the needs it’s designed for), but they’re also not real. The ones molded around reality are often less smooth and neat, and less appealing - because they’re not designed for you, they’re designed to represent reality. The task of anyone seeking truth is to learn how to recognize what both types of ideas look like, what they’re “shaped” like, what they feel like. Your idea that you can get all the benefits of supporting a third party while also getting the benefits of voting Democrat - it’s shaped around what you want to be true. Essentially, it’s motivated reasoning convincing you that there must be some way for it to work, in order to avoid facing a difficult decision.
Seek truth from facts. Put aside how you think the world ought to operate and look at how it does. You can’t make a map before you’ve seen the territory. When you do that, you’ll see that this sudden spontaneous shift as the result of some random poll is never going to happen.
That’s all I have to say to you about this topic. I’m sorry if that comes off as condescending, but it’s genuinely from the heart. I can’t force you to see something you’re dead-set on not seeing. I don’t see anything productive coming from continuing this.
So, in your mind, if someone did this favorability poll you want, and it showed, say, 60% favorability for the Green Party, you would vote for them, and you imagine that the majority of Democratic voters would all spontaneous switch their votes over together?
Not Democratic voters (assuming you mean the party). Just voters.
If you’re a Democrat and you feel like the Green Party has a candidate polling at a majority that represents your interests more than the Democratic candidate, why would you vote for the Democratic candidate instead? It goes against your interests. I know some Democrats are brain damaged, but I think that is only a small percentage (1 - 3 %).
This is like saying the majority of the population is leftist and has a chance at a bloodless revolution, but they decide to not take it because of shits and giggles.
If you’re a Democrat and you feel like the Green Party has a candidate polling at a majority
Polling as in “intends to vote for” or polling as in “has a favorable opinion of?”
If favorability: Multiple candidates can have positive favorability, so in that case most Democrats would stick with Democrat candidates because they don’t expect the third party to win.
If voting intention: The only way for a third party to be polling at a majority in terms of voting intention would be if people really did intend to vote for them (which would require some people to intend to vote for them before it was clear they had a real chance), or if people lied to pollsters about their intentions.
You’re not going to find some clever solution that allows you to bypass the problem of coordinating a mass switch, that problem is fundamental. This is tiresome.
That’s not not how you spell ad-hominem or what it is.
If the poll is not meaningless to you, then what number would it have to be for it to make you to vote third party?
The poll would have to be about a specific candidate. Not voting third party in general.
Third party in general just means that most people are sick of the two candidates in top. This could mean that we are splitting The 60% between five third-party candidates. This means the Democratic and Republican candidates are still on top?
Now if 60% of the people were interested in voting for the green candidate specifically. Then I’m very interested and a big funny is about to happen to the Republican or Democratic candidate.
Then why did you link it?
It was a counter to this statement.
But I now that I am re-reading it I see that I had misinterpreted it. I thought you were implying that polls only ask questions about voting and not option. This was my bad. Sorry.
It’s an important point, because you presented it as a form of evidence that could be used to show when “it’s time” for everyone to switch to a third party, and then completely rejected it for that purpose right after. Which leaves us back at square one, which is that there is no means of coordinating a sudden switch or recognizing when such a switch would be viable. And without that, your whole position collapses.
Or a poll that shows favorability over voting.
Your argument boils down to “We would need a thing that easily could exist and maybe currently doesn’t exist and that’s why this is an unsolvable problem.”
So, in your mind, if someone did this favorability poll you want, and it showed, say, 60% favorability for the Green Party, you would vote for them, and you imagine that the majority of Democratic voters would all spontaneous switch their votes over together?
Go ahead and ask that to people you know, irl or people online: “If there was a poll showing a third party with 60% (or higher!) favorability, would that cause you to switch your vote? Would you expect it to cause others to switch their votes?” I can already tell you the answer you’ll get.
I hate to say this, but the fact that you think this is such a trivial problem tells me that you must be young, and there are no words I can say that are a substitute for experience. I recognize your mindset because I’ve had it myself, you want to drive a rational answer and the world can simply bend around to what you come up with. You want an answer that’s simply correct, because you don’t want to face a difficult decision, you don’t want to deal with the fact that both courses of action have some validity to them and either one comes with potential negative repercussions.
Let me give you a piece of advice - there are two types of ideas, ones that are molded around reality, and ones that are molded around psychological needs. The ones molded around psychological needs are always more appealing (assuming you have the needs it’s designed for), but they’re also not real. The ones molded around reality are often less smooth and neat, and less appealing - because they’re not designed for you, they’re designed to represent reality. The task of anyone seeking truth is to learn how to recognize what both types of ideas look like, what they’re “shaped” like, what they feel like. Your idea that you can get all the benefits of supporting a third party while also getting the benefits of voting Democrat - it’s shaped around what you want to be true. Essentially, it’s motivated reasoning convincing you that there must be some way for it to work, in order to avoid facing a difficult decision.
Seek truth from facts. Put aside how you think the world ought to operate and look at how it does. You can’t make a map before you’ve seen the territory. When you do that, you’ll see that this sudden spontaneous shift as the result of some random poll is never going to happen.
That’s all I have to say to you about this topic. I’m sorry if that comes off as condescending, but it’s genuinely from the heart. I can’t force you to see something you’re dead-set on not seeing. I don’t see anything productive coming from continuing this.
Not Democratic voters (assuming you mean the party). Just voters.
If you’re a Democrat and you feel like the Green Party has a candidate polling at a majority that represents your interests more than the Democratic candidate, why would you vote for the Democratic candidate instead? It goes against your interests. I know some Democrats are brain damaged, but I think that is only a small percentage (1 - 3 %).
This is like saying the majority of the population is leftist and has a chance at a bloodless revolution, but they decide to not take it because of shits and giggles.
Polling as in “intends to vote for” or polling as in “has a favorable opinion of?”
If favorability: Multiple candidates can have positive favorability, so in that case most Democrats would stick with Democrat candidates because they don’t expect the third party to win.
If voting intention: The only way for a third party to be polling at a majority in terms of voting intention would be if people really did intend to vote for them (which would require some people to intend to vote for them before it was clear they had a real chance), or if people lied to pollsters about their intentions.
You’re not going to find some clever solution that allows you to bypass the problem of coordinating a mass switch, that problem is fundamental. This is tiresome.