No one alive will experience a better climate than we have today. But young people will experience a much more dangerous and chaotic world in the future.
We can still make it better for people that are about to be born
Need more Luigi’s.
No one will experience a better climate than today, that’s true.
But the crucial part of this chart is the 3° gap between the best and worst possible outcomes.
Support for gay marriage went from less than 20% to over 80% in less than a decade. We can make major changes. Cynicism is acceptance.
Except that,
- We have already exceeded the “worst case scenario” path. We are quite literally in uncharted territory, as none of our climate models have been built for this scenario and we have no “prior art” to give any indications of what kind of climate changes might happen next.
- On this path, +3℃ will be reached within the next decade and a bit - likely between 2035 and 2038.
- At +3℃, lethally high wet bulb temperatures and chaotic weather will take out about 4 billion humans within a few short years. Chaotic weather itself will make industrialized agriculture impossible world-wide, as over 90% of all agriculture is shacked to rainfall. And too much is equally as devastating as not enough.
- The collapse of the AMOC - with a “most likely due by” in the 2050s - will supercharge this climate chaos, causing weather patterns worldwide to whiplash for up to a decade as the planetary climate tries to find a “new normal”. At this point, pretty much any agriculture aside from hydroponics - and less than 3% of crops can be successfully worked hydroponically - will simply be unviable.
We are fucked. Right now, the best we can do is limit the wider environmental damage. Entire ecosystems will collapse, as changes are happening too fast for them to migrate towards the poles. The fastest prior example of climate change that we discovered happened almost 100,000× slower, so entire forests had the opportunity to migrate instead of perishing.
I am all for massive action. Not for humanity - I see zero chance of us surviving as any kind of a going concern into the 22nd century - but for the planetary ecosystem. We must give it the best possible chance for recovery, so that whatever comes after us has the best opportunity to flourish.
And of course all those dictators will use the catastrophic events to throw shit at each other, tell the others are the reason for all this and can finally start their wet dream ww3 as well as get rid of all minority “parasites” that waste our now limited resources we all fight for
Very nice
😔
Ironically, only unrestrained nuclear war could possibly save us now.
- It would move untold gigatonnes of dust into the atmosphere, cutting down on solar radiation in the short term
- it would destroy high-tech fossil fuel consumption and most human-caused CO2 production in the short to medium term
- said dust would slowly fall out of the atmosphere over the next decade, most into the oceans, releasing phytoplankton from their limiting environmental factors (mainly a lack of iron)
- even with reduced sunlight, phytoplankton populations would explode, sucking significant CO2 out of the atmosphere
- an extended nuclear winter would produce thin ice sheets across most of the northern hemisphere, dramatically increasing the planet’s albedo once the atmosphere clears up, reflecting most incoming radiation back out and (hopefully) maintaining lower temperatures
- lower temperatures planet-wide would produce a much wetter climate, with much more snowfall and more precipitation in arid areas, encouraging increased carbon sequestration by plants.
- human populations would crash massively in the first year or three, but - especially in the southern hemisphere - would remain present in relative technological sophistication. We could conceivably stabilize in the very low billion level or high hundreds of millions, with the technological knowledge to rebuild a high-tech civilization without the extensive use of fossil fuels.
🤯🫡
I know. It’s an exceedingly horrible path, but the alternatives are turning out to be immeasurably worse, and we are rapidly running out of non-catastrophic options.
I am in the northern hemisphere, in a city that is virtually 100% guaranteed to be nuked if such a conflict arises. It’s not an option I want to reach for unless all the other ones are even worse. But “much worse” is likely to occur, sooner rather than later.
But the gay marriage was a no brainer because it cost nothing to anyone. Making the climate better requires sacrifice. Still think we should try to be positive.
that’s me in 2050 im out y’all
But never forget: it’s the immigrants fault!
- rich people
- rich people
well, yeah, but also the vroom-vroom assholes - there are so many who fight efficiency and buy the biggest truck our the loudest most ridiculous exhaust for their sports car, they literally derive enjoyment from making things worse. And then there’s the smooth-brainest, the coal rollers, who fuck up their shit intentionally to make it spew toxins they can maneuver onto peds and cyclists.
the world is burning, when are we going to turn some of this focus back to a modicum of personal responsibility?
Vroom vrooms don’t matter as long as we keep shipping shit around the world and burn coal for energy
nope. it all matters now. every fucking bit matters. we’re already at 2c.
it’s all got to matter from here out.
That’s all true, but the rich have outsized power to influence the system. They have an impact on education and politics that in turns breeds the “vroom-vroom assholes”, the coal rollers, the right-wingers, the anti-abortionists, the “my way or the highway”, the tankies, and so on.
More successful people are fine, but those super, mega, ultra rich fucks who play the system to fuck the world for the rest of us, those fucks have to be taxed back into normality or get a visit from Luigi.
More successful people are fine, but those super, mega, ultra rich fucks who play the system to fuck the world for the rest of us, those fucks have to be taxed back into normality or get a visit from Luigi.
hope springs eternal.
does anyone else think about this as assholes drive by vroom vrooming co2 into the atmosphere for fun?
I get pissed just seeing people idling their engine just to run the AC while their spouse shops or whatever.
Oh boy. Wait till you learn about long haul trucking…
Ever been to a truck rest stop? Each one has dozens of semi trucks, all idling their engines, all night. There are 10s of thousands of such stops across the US.
I’m well aware. Not sure what your point is. That’s also bad.
He thinks you’re a noob because you still let the fact that we’re all gonna get fucked in the end by the oligarchy doing nothing to better our one and only world embolden you to feel frustrated (for good reason) at your obtuse surroundings.
Nah, I was pissed at exhaust emissions long before it was cool. Trolls gonna troll, though.
The extent to which current and future generations will experience a hotter and different world depends on
choices now and in the near-termhow quickly we compost the rich.Wouldn’t composting just release more greenhouse gasses? We need a more effective means of carbon capture, or maybe directly repurpose them as some sort of nutritional paste
Composting sequesters much more carbon than it emits, if done properly. It’s not like we’re cremating the bodies, where the carbon is released to the atmosphere as CO2.
Oh huh, interesting… 📃✍️
A version edited for more clarity:
That’s very sad.
I’d recommend reading Stand on Zanzibar for a glimpse into a +4.8°C future that we’re headed into.
A book from 1968 about overpopulation among other things… that might be a sci-fi classic, but an accurate forecast of what is going to happen in the nearish future it is not 🙄
Yeah the population bomb fizzled (although family planning policy being widespread probably makes it another ozone layer) and upside down population pryamids are a more realistic scenario
We’re probably not heading into over 4.8 though. Probable outcomes are between 2.5 and 3.5 (both of which are horrific.)
We’re probably not heading into over 4.8 though. Probable outcomes are between 2.5 and 3.5 (both of which are horrific.)
Unfortunately, that kind of thinking is badly out of date, and no longer in line with the evidence.
Spoiler alert: it’s much, much worse than that.
If you add up the current CO2 level of 424ppm, the effect of CH4 and the other greenhouse gases (+100ppm), and the effect of “albedo dimming” (+100ppm). Then we are at a level of +624ppm(CO2e).
That’s about +6.5°C over baseline according to the paleoclimate record. The one that mainstream climate science DOESN’T use to calibrate CO2 levels to global temperatures from but that their “new numbers” for climate sensitivity are starting to match.
If the Rate of Warming follows the pattern of the last few years. Then La Nina years should warm about +0.1°C per year. With “spikes” during El Nino years of +0.2°C up to +0.4°C PER YEAR.
With 2 El Nino’s per decade and about 6 La Nina years we may be looking at a RoW of roughly +1.2°C of warming PER DECADE now.
Guess I’m going to kill myself. This shit is fucked up.
How should I kill myself, any recommendations?
If you wait long enough climate change will do it for you.
Ok, correct me if I’m wrong, but this guy doesn’t seem to have any credentials, which seems like a huge red flag to me. Especially since he spends a lot of this article shitting on mainstream climate science. I don’t know enough about climate science to know whether this is actually bunk, which is deeply distressing to me.
But either 1, its legit and we’re headed for the literal end of the world (not as we know it, like, all life goes extinct in the scenario he poses, there is nothing left).
Or 2, its not legit and we’re headed for the end of the world as we know it and the deaths of a distressingly large amount of the human population.
Either way, I’m going to be doing all the same things, and we all need to do all the things we’d do if we were heading for 6.5 as if we were heading for 3, this doesn’t change anything to me, and it certainly doesn’t change anything in the minds of the biggest polluters…
If we are lucky we will only experience the intermediate effects
yup. every time I read about private jets flying to get food, or see a car speeding down the street doing 60 in a 25, revving their shit at lights, I think: how much are you robbing your children?
don’t they love their own kids? how is our society literally burning - but people can’t make the obvious connection?
I know we can’t de-carbonize every source instantly, but the selfish pricks who burn it for fun need to be taxed at the very fucking least
Good infographic, looks like its part of a bigger piece though, have you got the source?
It’s a figure from the latest IPCC report
Thx for sauce!
Ah cool, cheers!
And that’s why we should resist and reject the works of these mofos
they’re boilng us alive like frogs sitting in a pot going to work everyday
Hence, it’s time to look for answers to act my friend! I personally suggest reading The Ecology of Freedom from Murray Bookchin
At some point a a super volcano will go off and we will turn back into a snowball.
Already 60°C in thermal sensivity in Rio de Janeiro yesterday. If the end comes, It will not be with a bang, but as a sloooooow cook. And it’s happening right now so: Time to act!
Gambling is part of the problem. You can’t rely on luck.
yawn
Depends on the definition of good. People like remote workers do seem to prefer warmer locations when given the opportunity to relocate
