A new Calculus poll suggests that any gains made by the PM after Liz Truss's disastrous spell in charge have been wiped out, with Labour recording a 21 point lead as Tories turn on Rishi Sunak
Do you really think they’re going to try and hold an election in January 2025 at the last possible moment for a general election?
Traditional wisdom is that for the incumbent party, spring/summer is a better time to hold the election because people are generally happier with their lot in the warmer months, and are thus more likely to vote for the status quo. In January, everyone is broke after Christmas, and miserable from the cold, wet and dark, thus more likely to vote for a change of government. All the more so if energy prices continue to be sky-high.
Personally, I’d be surprised if it’s more than a year until the election.
Traditionally true, but I think they see the writing on the wall. They are now just breaking as much stuff as they can in the time that they have, so they can try to blame Labour for the fallout. They can break more things with a few extra months.
They won’t hold an election if they think they are going to lose either. They will wait until the tide turns. If it doesn’t turn, they will wait until January '25.
Do you really think they’re going to try and hold an election in January 2025 at the last possible moment for a general election?
Traditional wisdom is that for the incumbent party, spring/summer is a better time to hold the election because people are generally happier with their lot in the warmer months, and are thus more likely to vote for the status quo. In January, everyone is broke after Christmas, and miserable from the cold, wet and dark, thus more likely to vote for a change of government. All the more so if energy prices continue to be sky-high.
Personally, I’d be surprised if it’s more than a year until the election.
Old people don’t come out in the cold either, and that’s their biggest demographic.
Traditionally true, but I think they see the writing on the wall. They are now just breaking as much stuff as they can in the time that they have, so they can try to blame Labour for the fallout. They can break more things with a few extra months.
They won’t hold an election if they think they are going to lose either. They will wait until the tide turns. If it doesn’t turn, they will wait until January '25.