Too Little, Too Unionist
farrellperks.substack.com
The latest anti-independence turn from the Lib Dems isn’t strategy - it’s surrender

There was a time, not too long ago, when the Welsh Liberal Democrats mattered. Never at the top, mind you, but they were at least part of the national conversation. A couple of Senedd seats, a smattering of MPs, a sense of progressive credibility. But that time is over. And after this week’s full-throated rejection of Welsh independence from their lone Senedd member, it’s hard to see them doing anything but fading quietly into political irrelevance.

Note - I am the author of this piece, any constructive feedback or criticism is welcome!

  • HumanPenguin@feddit.ukEnglish
    3·
    28 days ago

    Not OP.

    But one poll that still shows the majority against. And indicates a huge huge change in the younger voters over past polls.

    Seems to fail to back up most out your claims.

    You claim the young are not changing views as they get older. Unfortunately your one poll from march 25 is in no way enough to support that. When past polls all indicate it dose. Untill you have 2 or more polls over a longer period. All it shows is an increase in people of that current age groups.

    Personally it is none of my business. As an Englishman I feel both Scotland and Wales should be free to do as they want. Only when they have the internal support to do so.

    But your evidence is not enough to claim Welsh LD is making a mistake when all polling still shows a majority no with just one 1000 person poll showing a swing in under 35s.

    There is a good reason parties tend to rely on poll of polls rather then single results.

    A single 1000 person survey in a almost 3000000 population will always be at risk of anomaly.

    Not to mention any poll funded by a group hoping for one answer. Needs very close analysis. They are not all bad. But it is very possible and common for such groups to alter questions and demographic requirements to paint their own picture.

    • Navarian@lemm.eeOP
      1·
      28 days ago

      I appreciate the more balanced tone here, so let me respond in kind.

      You are absolutely right that a single poll, especially one commissioned by an advocacy group, should not be treated as definitive. That is why I did not base my argument solely on the March 2025 poll. It is part of a broader pattern that has emerged across multiple public polls over the past few years. YouGov, Redfield & Wilton and Omnisis, for example, have all shown support for independence gradually increasing, particularly among younger voters. The private poll simply highlights and reinforces that existing trend.

      I also agree that we need more consistent data to fully establish whether pro-independence views are retained as voters age. However, the evidence we do have suggests that this is happening. Those who were in favour at 25 still tend to be in favour at 35. While that trend needs more time to be confirmed definitively, it is already significant enough to warrant attention, at least in my opinion.

      The main point here is not that independence is guaranteed or inevitable, but that the Welsh Lib Dems have traditionally relied on younger voters, and younger voters are consistently more likely to support independence than older ones. Ignoring that shift may not matter today, but it is a strategic risk in the longer term.

      And just to add, I fully agree with your final point. Independence should only happen if it has clear and sustained support within Wales. That is the only democratic basis on which it could, or perhaps even should, proceed.