Plum@lemmy.worldM to Wikipedia@lemmy.worldEnglish · 5 days agoMonty Hall problemen.wikipedia.orgexternal-linkmessage-square25linkfedilinkarrow-up191arrow-down13
arrow-up188arrow-down1external-linkMonty Hall problemen.wikipedia.orgPlum@lemmy.worldM to Wikipedia@lemmy.worldEnglish · 5 days agomessage-square25linkfedilink
minus-squarezout@fedia.iolinkfedilinkarrow-up7·5 days agoThis is not how it works, this way you wouldn’t improve your chances by switching doors.
minus-squareValmond@lemmy.worldlinkfedilinkEnglisharrow-up2arrow-down1·edit-25 days agoWell explain how it works then. Because you know, it does work.
minus-squarezout@fedia.iolinkfedilinkarrow-up4·5 days agoOk, assume you pick door number one. There’s three possibilities; the car is either behind door number one, two or three. Now: First scenario, the car is behind door number one. Monty opens door two or three, you switch doors and don’t win a car. Second scenario, the car is behind door number two. Monty opens door three, you switch doors to number two and win a car. Third scenario, the car is behind door number three. Monty opens door two, you switch doors to number three and win a car. So two out of three times, you’ve won a car by switching doors. So you have a 2/3 chance of winnin by switching, or a 1/3 chance by not switching.
minus-squareValmond@lemmy.worldlinkfedilinkEnglisharrow-up2·5 days agoVery good explanation, thanks! I didn’t provide the exact numbers, but stated that because the odds are now better for a random selection, is the reason for switching. Am I that bad at explaining 😭
This is not how it works, this way you wouldn’t improve your chances by switching doors.
Well explain how it works then. Because you know, it does work.
Ok, assume you pick door number one. There’s three possibilities; the car is either behind door number one, two or three. Now:
So two out of three times, you’ve won a car by switching doors. So you have a 2/3 chance of winnin by switching, or a 1/3 chance by not switching.
Very good explanation, thanks!
I didn’t provide the exact numbers, but stated that because the odds are now better for a random selection, is the reason for switching. Am I that bad at explaining 😭