• Triasha@lemmy.world
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    22 days ago

    China has 4-6 months national use in their oil reserves and they have a pipeline to Russia, but if this goes long enough they will starve and their economy will crash.

    Currently, China is watching America set itself on fire, but those flames are spreading.

      • Triasha@lemmy.world
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        22 days ago

        They are buying Iranian oil, but they are cut off from gulf state suppliers, except for the fraction of Soudi oil that goes to the red sea.

    • shawn1122@sh.itjust.works
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      22 days ago

      China has more options than you let on. They are in no way dependent on Iranian oil. Global inflation and a global recession will certainly effect them but that will effect everyone. If it gets to that then the world may well turn on Israel for starting this.

    • humanspiral@lemmy.ca
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      22 days ago

      Venezuela is “allowed” to sell oil to China, now. Russia, China, US, Canada, Venezuela, Brazil do relatively well in global collapse. Though US/Israel loses ally loyalty due to being directly responsible for it.

      China is best positioned of all due to alternative energy dominance, huge reserves, and priority for imports due to geopolitical power of destroying US/Israel ships/bases. Their economy will crash far less than rest of world, solar/EV exports will surge significantly, and all countries need stronger alliance with China after this fiasco.

      US collapse despite oil export capabilities will be extremely visible as inevitable. Dedollarization and definancialization of its markets led by higher GCC country priorities, including diversification of alliances with their best customer, anti-US sentiment by colonies including NATO, absurd supplementary War replenishment funding bill, facing a stagflation environment. Japan and other US ally collapsing debt levels means further definancialization of US bubble. Skynet all in market strategy requires helium from GCC, Asian allies, and government financing credibility.

      • Triasha@lemmy.world
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        20 days ago

        Even if China electrified their transport systems, they haven’t, but if they had, they still need fossil fuels for fertilizers. The US will not go down quietly. A single carrier squadron could blockade china from middle eastern oil.

        That said I hope no such conflict ever happens. The US and China do not have to be enemies.

        • humanspiral@lemmy.ca
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          20 days ago

          A single carrier squadron could blockade china from middle eastern oil.

          Declaring war would be a weak move, and a nuclear missile power can sink a carrier group easily if it deserves to be. China also has real friends to help with anything it truly needs.

          The US will not go down quietly.

          The last gasps of this is flailing against Iran. A permanent war state prevents GCC from switching mid stream. GCC alliance to US/Israel was always based on CIA/Mossad colour revolution coups threats, but if the war ever stops, they will align with their customers and those who assist in reconstruction. There’s not much the US can do about its decline spiral causing allies to leave it.

          • Triasha@lemmy.world
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            20 days ago

            China doesn’t have allies, only business partners.

            Nuking a carrier group would probably doom humanity.

            I hope that the war in Iran is the last gasp of American empire, but gravity of international relations remains centered in North America, the only country with the wealth, navy, and air force to project power worldwide.

            If drones advance to change that, so any country can war on any other from anywhere on the globe, then we will see a global siesmic shift, and carriers will be as useless as battleships. But until then? The US remains the center of global power.

            Europe will move for negotiating power, so their militilaries are not dependant on the US, but the food production, fossil fuels, and navy will keep the money in North america for the rest of my life.

            • humanspiral@lemmy.ca
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              20 days ago

              China doesn’t have allies, only business partners.

              A better way to go through life, that also makes the business partners friendlier to your continued business.

              Nuking a carrier group would probably doom humanity.

              Sinking ships is permitted response to war declared upon you. MAD is only about ICBMs headed towards homeland to fire back before they land.

              Russia’s patience is only about enduring a proxy war that makes it stronger, with better political capital unity for rulership. Direct war fails containment restraints.

              • Triasha@lemmy.world
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                20 days ago

                The US would absolutely respond with a nuclear strike of our own, and with current leadership, way out of proportion.

                Cooler heads could prevail, but I’m not hopeful in that scenario.

                Of course, we should not be blockading them in the first place unless they try to take Taiwan.