NATO’s proxy war in Ukraine is morphing into a direct EU-Russia war. And the war hawks in Brussels are further escalating by attacking civilians in the Donbas and Russia proper. The doves in the Kremlin, including Vladimir Putin, are running out of options to keep their own hawks under wraps. As things stand now, an all-out EU-Russia war is not only a possible, but by now a likely scenario. But to what end?

  • DonLongSchlong@lemmygrad.ml
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    6 days ago

    How capable even is the EU at taking on Russia? I don’t think they will have an easy time, but Russia has been using up their own arsenal and soldiers against NATO powered up Ukraine.

      • DonLongSchlong@lemmygrad.ml
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        5 days ago

        I assume you mean by gaining experience against NATO weaponry and tactics and experience on using drones and other new equipment? Did russia also built up their military industry?

        Western propaganda tells me that Russia is about to collapse and normally they only overstate negatives and understate positives, but this time it seems to be a complete opposite and fabricated lie with no basis at all. I wonder how much of a shock the eventual message of Ukraine surrendering will be to the people that fully bought into that lie, then.

        So the EU de-industrialised, gave up cheap energy, gave a bunch of weapons to Ukraine, is being hit by an energy and food crisis due to their zionist attack against Iran and all they got in return is a better and stronger Russia with stronger ties to their other mortal enemies Iran and China?

        The level of happiness about the downfall of the west is only ever dampened by my white ass knowing that i am going down with it and that my girlfriend is truly in love with me and so she will not leave my side until the end either.

        • cfgaussian@lemmygrad.mlOP
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          5 days ago

          I mean everything. Not just more experienced but expanded and entirely reorganized. Structurally it is almost an entirely different military. Before it was organized as a peacetime military.

          They had practically no drones integrated into either their units or their doctrine before, now they have dedicated drone units and an increasingly sophisticated doctrine of integrating them at every level of combat. They have developed an entire state led drone industrial sector that is, as we can see from the frequency and size of the drone strike waves, not just larger than Ukraine’s but also very innovative.

          They have restarted and modernized many old military industrial facilities that had been unused for decades. Their production is many times higher than before the war. Their stockpiles rather than dwindling have been growing in practically every kind of equipment and ammunition.

          Old equipment that would otherwise have been decommissioned has been refurbished and used up while stockpiles of newer equipment have been growing. Missile technology as well as interception technology has also rapidly advanced as Russia learned how to counter Western missile systems. Also entirely new Russian weapons systems exist now that didn’t exist before.

          The overall size of their military in terms of manpower has at least doubled, and all this from volunteers, not even proper mobilization, and they are much better equipped and better led than before. The overall defense industrial sector is more efficient and less corrupt as the conflict has forced them to clean house and a number of corrupt officials have been arrested and tried.

          This isn’t so say that they don’t still have major problems to sort out and things to improve, or that the conflict hasn’t been painful, but overall it is incomparably stronger military than it was before the conflict (which is not unusual historically, as the USSR also emerged from WW2 militarily much stronger despite the immense loss and destruction). NATO is not.

          NATO, and not just in Ukraine but also with the conflicts the US has had to supply in the Middle East, has greatly depleted its arsenals and has been largely unable to ramp up production. The privatized military industrial complex is extremely slow to expand when there is no clear profit motive and operates with huge amounts of waste, spending sometimes ten times what a state led defense sector like Russia’s spends to produce the same things.

          The US is busy trying to keep its own arsenals from emptying while Europe is dysfunctional and with the rising energy costs entirely unable to fulfill its absurdly ambitious plans. Also there is a ton of graft and just outright running off with the money and never actually delivering when it comes to private Ukrainian or Ukraine-related contractors (usually all with personal ties to the Kiev junta who get kickbacks from all this corruption).

          Ukraine’s own defense industry that it inherited from the Soviet Union is now largely destroyed and they are almost entirely reliant on being supplied by Europe and the US. Domestically the main thing they have left are small, dispersed drone production workshops hidden in apartments so Russia can’t target them with missile strikes like they do the big industrial factories.

          Air defenses are severely depleted and the US has stopped deliveries because they need them against Iran, so Ukraine is now practically unable to intercept the vast majority of what Russia fires at them. And this is with Europe having given them virtually everything they could scrounge up. Not to mention the fact that their entire government and army runs on money “loaned” to them by the EU.

          And of course Ukraine’s manpower is severely depleted and what they do have is of increasingly low quality: old, poorly trained, poorly motivated. Where in 2022 Ukraine outnumbered the Russians at least two or three to one, now Russia actually outnumbers Ukraine. This is particularly shocking since Russia only relies on volunteers and Ukraine is forcibly mobilizing practically every able bodied adult male they can drag off the streets.

          It is hard to say what the casualty ratios are but the mutual exchanges of bodies and prisoners are consistently in Russia’s favor by at least ten to one. Of course that is also a result of Russia controlling the battlefield and Ukraine being particularly uninterested in collecting or even documenting its own casualties (to avoid bad PR and also avoid paying the families) but nonetheless it is indicative of favorable ratios for Russia.

          Russia keeps advancing despite Ukraine constantly throwing more and more bodies into the trenches to prevent PR-damaging breakthroughs (Ukraine is particularly sensitive to PR since it relies on perception of “holding out” to get a constant stream of money and military equipment from the West). Ukraine tends to hold out to the last for every position, which also favors Russia in maximizing the casualty imbalance by creating cauldrons that are hard to reinforce or resupply without casualties.

          Now Ukrainian front lines are increasingly porous, manned by very few actual soldiers, and are mostly being held by drones, which despite being very useful and able to slow down smaller scale advances, are not a replacement for real combined arms warfare and actual boots on the ground. Drones can be countered by EW and overwhelmed by a continuous dispersed assault that bypasses a poorly manned frontline and disrupts the drone teams.

          Russia has also developed a doctrine of using cheap but plentiful and by now very accurate glide bombs to systematically dismantle Ukrainian fortified positions over longer periods of time, minimizing Russian casualties, which they are able to do because Ukraine has practically no air force and depleted AD.

          Ukraine is also totally reliant on the US and its satellites for ISR, targeting and communications where Russia has actually increased its own military satellite coverage since the war began.

          Overall the Russian military is stronger now not just compared to Ukraine but compared to NATO as a whole than it was in 2022.

          And a very similar thing happened with the economy. The sanctions forced them to rapidly adapt and develop import substitution while reorienting away from the West and toward the much more dynamic and growing Asian economies. Here there also are a lot of problems, mainly because Russia’s current government refuses to let go of its liberal economic brainworms and go back to the state led approach, but at least a lot of avenues by which wealth was being extracted out of Russia and taken by the West have been closed off.

          • DonLongSchlong@lemmygrad.ml
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            5 days ago

            Holy mother of replies, damn. I thank you for the effort!

            I truly have no idea how America will get out of this hole and even less of a clue for Europe after this reply haha

            Do the EU leaders know about their own level of strength? It seems like either they are delusional because the old way of the world is being dismantled and they have no other buttons to press anymore or they are using Russia to re-militarize in order to turn their militaries inwards against the communists and masses that will show up when shit gets real bad.

            I am impressed with how Russia has been dealing with this situation tbh. I was still libbed up when the SMO started and saw Russia as a less bad USA. Now i am able to actually have some hope due to Russia, DPRK and China no longer being just another bad guy winning in my mind.

            • cfgaussian@lemmygrad.mlOP
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              5 days ago

              EU leaders are deeply delusional and live in an ideological echo-chamber where they just talk to each other all day, but they also have no political way out. Like an addicted gambler their only option is to keep doubling down until they go completely broke. They will keep escalating and crossing all red lines until Russia has no other choice but to hit back.

              It seems they believe that the best way out of the political crisis they have created for themselves, where they ruined their own economies on the promise of defeating and plundering Russia, is to provoke a large European war against Russia that will drag in the US to bail them out (kind of like what Israel always does).

              Because if they were to admit to their own populations that all the sacrifices they forced Europeans to make and all the freedoms they curtailed on the pretext of the Russian threat were for nothing, they would be thrown out of power, at a minimum.

              And many of them have deeply tied personal financial interests in the continuing of the war and in European rearmament. Others have generational grievances against Russia going back to WWII or before, and others are just true believers in Western supremacy/liberal hegemonism, being products of the US NGO-academic Atlanticist pipeline.

              So they are growing more desperate the more they see the US pulling out of Europe and leaving them holding the Ukraine bag and facing a now very pissed off and empowered Russia.

              In Russia it is already clear that Ukraine is only a matter of time. The debate there now is how to respond to the increasingly aggressive Europeans who are already complicit in launching direct attacks on Russia.

              Putin is one of the last liberal/moderate holdouts but more and more in the Russian public and the Russian elite are now looking at how Iran has struck back proportionately against all sources of aggression against themselves, regardless how “uninvolved” they pretended to be, and are asking why Russia is not doing the same to restore deterrence.

              I think, unless Europe comes to its senses and pulls back, that hardline faction will eventually win the debate in Russia.

    • PolandIsAStateOfMind@lemmygrad.ml
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      5 days ago

      In last joint Ukraine-NATO maneuvers, Ukraine demolished NATO units, and while this might pass unnoticed among the warmongers like von der Leyen or Kallas, everyone paying attention noticed that Ukraine war shaken the entire modern battlefield concept and European armies are now not only badly coordinated and unprepared for peer conflict as before, but also obsolete, and no real complex modernisation is possible due to deindustrialisation and USA meddling.