cross-posted from: https://lemmy.zip/post/794993
Archived version: https://archive.ph/YHzBc
Archived version: https://web.archive.org/web/20230728005938/https://www.reuters.com/world/us-intelligence-report-says-china-likely-supplying-tech-russian-military-2023-07-27/
A weak Russia wouldn’t distract the flailing US empire’s focus while China continues to overtake the US. China is absolutely interested in a strong Russia.
It’s currently under question whether China will ever overtake the US in GDP. If you’re solely projecting based on the assumption that current growth will continue that is a sensible conclusion, but it’s a faulty one. First and foremost, China has a much older demographic makeup that will be a drag on economic grow. Second, the birthrate is significantly lower than the US (1.28 in China vs 1.64 in the US in 2020), where 2.1 is replacement. Last, the US has decent amounts of immigration that help make up the difference between births and replacement, while China is experiencing negative migration rates. China and the US are both attempting policy changes, but haven’t had much success.
Russia has the GDP of Italy. It isnt a great way to measure productive capacity. China has overtaken the US in productive capacity already.
I’m not talking about Russia, though they have the same demographic issues without the strong economy and with high rates of corruption. China does indeed lead in manufacturing, but not in overall GDP. There is no guarantee they will retain that lead either.
I’ll breK it down for you.
GDP is not the best measure of how large an economy is doing. That was why I referenced Russia.
A joke to illustrate why:
Two economicists are walking down a sidewalk. They see a dog shit. One pays the other 20 dollars to eat it. A spectator asks in horror why the man ate dogshit. He says “I felt it was important to add 20 dollars to the GDP”.
Oh, I agree. At some point in the 22nd century a pan-african alliance will probably overtake them.
What is the best measurement, then? Manufacturing capacity alone isn’t a good measurement, since that is just one part of the economy. Most advice I’ve heard is to draw from many different indices to produce a fuller picture of an economy, keeping in mind the strengths and weaknesses of each individual number.
When I use the word manufacture here I am referring to commodity production. Food, heavy industry, washing machines, putting together your coffee order. Commodity production+ distribution is the best way to determine how big an economy is.
The problem is that it devalues services, which are very much part of the economy. Services typically form a larger portion of an economy it develops further. This is as true in China as well, where there’s been diversification away from being “the world’s factory” to having a larger service sector.
There are some economists who feel both measures devalue things like housework that often get done more by women.
Service work is connected to distribution and commodity production and housework is constant. Everyone in aggregate does the necessary amount of housework to maintain themselves. Can a country do more housework to expand its economy? Of course housework is undervalued but it isnt connected to this topic because it is a constant.