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Cake day: 2026年3月18日

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  • Russia cannot meaningfully compete against American naval dominance in the Caribbean. Their navy has been in decline for so long. Russia is incapable of projecting power in Cuba. Even the Soviets were - they couldn’t and didn’t attempt to break the blockade during the Cuban missile crisis.

    Only a small portion of Russian naval vessels are capable of traversing the Atlantic without refueling to Cuba in the first place. They no longer have carrier strike groups as the Soviets did. Their submarine fleet has also diminished considerably, and what’s left is needed elsewhere for the very important task of maintaining nuclear deterrence and cannot be spared. Submarines are also not offensive instruments. If a submarine makes its presence known, it is a sitting duck.

    If the US decides to attack Russian escorts to Cuba, then that is reason for the warmongerers at NATO to active article 5 and attack Russia on land. And Russia is not going to win naval battles either - the offensive capabilities of the US Navy are unmatched (perhaps except by China, due to their extensive collection of anti ship missiles, but they only work near China)


  • When the Soviet Union fell, the US constituted 22 percent of the world GDP. American allies constituted, depending on who you ask, up to 80 percent of world GDP. Many crucial components, raw materials and services that the world needed could only be bought from the US.

    Today, the US is rapidly reaching single digit percentages of the world GDP. It is not even the largest economy anymore. Countries outside the US sphere of influence, (eg. China) now hold monopolies on crucial components and goods (electronics, certain minerals).

    Nobody has so far collectively exercised this power that they have garnered against US interests, and the US is still able to blockade and sanction countries at will with impunity (DPRK, Cuba, Iran, Russia etc.). But the foundation for this to eventually happen has been made, and the brickwork is being laid. At least with Russia, while China did comply with sanctions, they did not cut off trade as much as the US had hoped for, and the US’s ability to declare sanctions was demonstrably weakened as they seemed unwilling to impose harsher official sanctions on Russia.