I saw, no particular theories. Iran still operates lots of Russian equipment, so it could be ammunition for that.

It helps prevent easy geolocation with the blurs (and yes it would be possible to geolocate without them), but to be honest US infrared early warning satellites probably picked up the launches.

Also nice shot of a Fateh Mobin in action.

Russia also sold their most advanced air defence system at the time, the S-300VM/V4, to Egypt from 2014-2017. An S-300V4 battery is more expensive than S-400, over double the price if I remember correctly. The S-300V and S-300P systems are completely different systems, despite sharing a similar name.

The only foreign operators of the S-300V4/VM are Egypt and Venezuela. Ukraine operates the S-300V1 variant from Soviet era stockpiles. China has their own version, known as HQ-18 or HQ-29, though HQ-29 could be a different system.

Egypt also has the export variant of the S-300V4 though, an advanced mobile anti ballistic missile defence system from Russia, they obtained a few years ago. (The S-300V and S-300P systems are actually completely different systems, that share a similar name). The S-300Vs will almost certainly be providing cover from ballistic threats for the HQ-9Bs in an integrated air defence network (at least I hope they will). The combination of the two systems makes sense. Iran’s S-300PMU-2 fire control radars, a similar system to the HQ-9 (the HQ-9 is a direct descendant of the S-300PMU-2/SA-20, but with western radars and command and control technology/philosophy, including track via missile guidance similar to the Patriot system), were likely taken out by Israel’s air launched ballistic missiles in attacks in April and October last year. So having a system to cover against ballistic threats is very important if the adversary is Israel. Israel are likely the world leader in air launched ballistic missiles with a vast arsenal only rivaled by China.

For those wondering, Iran did try to get S-300V systems in 2013, but Russia said no. They got upgraded to S-300PMU-2 in the end, but not S-300V. The clown Dmitry Medvedev was responsible for this shambles.

But your overall point is definitely correct, China can provide military hardware just as good (or better) than Europe or Russia, for considerably cheaper. And unlike Russia who are currently at war with Ukraine, there’s no need to overpay, pay upfront, or wait for deliveries. Russia is falling behind in the advanced military technology department vs China and the USA.

The whole situation is just weird, more questions than answers.

It seems to be a newly refurbished aircraft. Maybe it was been worked on in Ukraine and is being evacuated now? Very weird because the closest distance between Kyiv/Kiev and Russia is about 200km via the Chernihiv direction, and 300km via Sumy, where the frontline is active. Such a large and immobile target should be well within range of a high altitude R-37M launch by a MiG-31, or a 40N6E launch from S-400 or S-300V4.

A Ukrainian Antonov AN-124 transport/cargo aircraft was spotted flying over Kyiv/Kiev today, and made it’s way to Poland shortly afterwards, in other words it was not shot down. The first time a rearward Ukrainian assest has been seen flying over the Ukrainian capital since the start of the war.

Source

Over three years into the Ukraine war, Russia has finally stopped using lower frequency long wavelength radio for communications between strategic bombers . They are now using higher frequency shorter wavelength radio, suggested to be UHF, for communications. UHF radio is propagated by line of sight and has a much shorter range. This means Ukrainian hobbyist radio operators can no longer listen in on the communications of the bombers (for example, the bombers announcing the launch of cruise missiles and launch location on radio), and can no longer announce the launch of missiles on their telegram channels. These telegram channels only know that the missiles are on their way when they get detected and enter Ukrainian airspace. This change has affected all monitoring channels.

How long before Russia uses SATCOM radio for long range secure communications on strategic bomber and refueling aircraft, so they can’t be tracked at takeoff and can operate “radio silent”. Do we have to wait another three years?

The system was first unveiled at the MAKS 2011 air show. Test firings have been conducted, and Russia is currently building Navy Corvettes that can accommodate these containers as part of the design. The Project 22160 is one such ship.

Has it been used operationally yet? That is unknown. The Project 22160 ships have seen combat in Ukraine, but it’s unknown if this system was equipped on them. Obviously putting the system on a warship is different from a perfidious attack using cargo ships.

This is unironically the reasoning. I think Russia was the first to come up with such a system, in Club K, and even conducted test launches.

Video

Test launch

Russia did it first with club K as far as I remember. All sides engage in this.

Unfortunately, that’s not true and the claim came from some telegram channels and twitter accounts that did sloppy geolocation work, and ignored other angles (Menchosint in particular). Lots of Iranian and resistance aligned sources did this as they were desperate for something.

The headquarters of the ministry of the interior is in Jerusalem, not Haifa.

The missile did not hit or directly impact the tall skyscraper building that’s labeled as the ministry of the interior building on Google maps. It hit a mixed use commerical building around 50-100m away, next to a parking lot. If the target was the tall building, the missile missed by over 50m. (Corrected, initially stated distances in ft)

Geolocation and multiple angles here, highly recommend ignoring political commentary and replies

The mosque did take minimal damage from the shockwaves, mainly debris and blown out windows.

During the Iranian attack on the US military base in Qatar just before the “end” of the Israeli-US war against Iran, the one ballistic missile that was not intercepted (“set free” according to Trump) hit a radome at the US base, as revealed by new satellite imagery. Likely the most accurate Iranian ballistic missile strike of the entire war. I’d guess a Hormuz missile, a Fateh-110 or even potentially 313 ballistic missile with an anti radiation seeker. The much shorter range compared to targeting Israel, plus the anti radiation seeker locking on to the largest emission source of electromagnetic radiation, would explain the high accuracy.

Source, with satellite imagery and before and after video

European defence strategy has very much been doing the minimum to deter Russia (while needlessly poking the bear) and relying on the US for everything else. This is how Europe was able to keep their welfare state functional under the capitalistic model, they were not responsible for their own security for the most part and Russia provided cheap natural resources for say Germany, and France had the neo colonies in Africa. For example, the entirety of Europe’s 5th generation stealth fighter fleet is F-35s. Not a single domestically produced European 5th generation stealth aircraft is flying, and won’t be for at least a decade. Even aviation powerhouses like France don’t have anything more than CGI renders at this point.

Wouldn’t you want to keep building them, even at a reduced rate of production, just to keep that tooling/skilled workforce/institutional knowledge around?

France did that, making missiles for export orders, and all the tooling is still around. The UK was doing updates and maintenance on already built missiles, the factories weren’t shut down. There were no orders from the French or UK militaries, so no need to make missiles no one is buying from the perspective of MDBA. That has changed.

Airbases again. Russia is starting to get concerned about the Ukrainian Air Force.

I have unfortunately seen footage of female Ukrainian troops that have died in APCs and tanks

MDBA have restarted SCALP-EG/Storm Shadow subsonic low observable/stealth cruise missile production lines in Stevenage, United Kingdom, for the first time in over 15 years, previously they were only doing mid life updates on already made missiles. French production lines were doing low rate production to fulfill export orders (such as India). This is the first time France or the UK has placed an order for new missiles in over 15 years too.

Source

More Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG cruise missiles for Ukraine.

The US Navy usually doesn’t get close enough for these weapons to be used against them, they usually have to be engaged with longer range weapons. So they are very effective in area denial. The last time a US Navy warship, an Arleigh Burke class AEGIS equipped missile destroyer, transited the Bab al-Mandab Strait, it had to be escorted by F-35C fighter aircraft, which helped with destroying the missiles on the ground before firing, and using it’s advanced radar and DAS/EOTS systems to track the ballistic and cruise missile launches and pass on this information to the AEGIS system so it could intercept. This was actually the combat debut of the F-35C.

As for the numbers of missiles, the Fateh 110 has been produced for over 20 years by Iran, and the Fateh Mobin guidance kit was revealed in 2018 and can be equipped on any Fateh 110 variant. There are potentially many of these missiles that can easily be converted to Fateh Mobin.

The Fajr-4CL is a newer weapon, first unveiled in 2020 by the IRGC. But it shouldn’t be too difficult to produce, given it’s an extended range 333 mm guided artillery rocket. Iran has been producing 333mm artillery rockets since the 1990s, the electro optical terminal guidance and extended range is the new part.

Iran has been operating Noor/C-802 missiles since the early 2000s, Hezbollah struck two ships, including one Israeli Navy warship, during the 2006 war with this missile. There should be plenty in the stockpiles.

HQ-9B survivability is also an issue, Iran had very similar systems in the S-300PMU2 batteries (the HQ-9 is a direct descendant of this system), and the fire control radars were likely taken out in Israel’s April and October 2024 attacks by air launched ballistic missiles. To defend against these threats, you need interceptor missiles specifically designed to intercept ballistic missiles, the HQ-9Bs will need to be protected by systems that offer that, or have that capability themselves. I haven’t seen a single image online of the HQ-9 systems with the kind of interceptors you’d ideally need for that threat. What Iran would need from China is a Patriot PAC 3 MSE (used in Patriot and MEADS) or 9M96E2 (used in the S-400 and S-350) class kinetic interceptor, which China has in an unmanned HQ system, for now called the land based HQ-26 (different from the naval HQ-26). It looks like this, basically the Chinese equivalent to MEADS and the S-350.

Alternatively, a S-300V series, or HQ-18/HQ-29 for the suspected Chinese version, anti ballistic missile system is needed. These don’t use kinetic interceptors, but large area effect warheads and are designed with a specific focus on intercepting ballistic missiles. Israel has a similar system in this philosophy called Arrow 2.

If the HQ-9s aren’t protected by such a system or have the capability themselves, they might end up facing the same fate as the Iranian S-300PMU2s.

Twitter source, retweeted by the official Yemeni Armed Forces account

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