I maintain that you have to look at the big picture here. The war isn’t between Russia and Ukraine, it’s between the west and the east. And the principle players are the US and China. So, the real question is which bloc can maintain discipline longer. As I’ve said many times before, Russia collapsing or becoming politically unstable would be a disaster for China. They rely on Russian food and energy imports, and Russia protects China’s western flank. If Russia was destabilized or balkanized, then it would become China’s Ukraine. Therefore, it’s obvious that China cannot allow that to happen under any circumstances. If Russia was genuinely in trouble then China would do everything in its power to bail them out. There’s no two ways about it.
To you, Russia’s defeat means Russia’s capitulation—something that is hardly likely. Yes, you’re right.
For me, Russia’s defeat means having Nazis left in my city.
Yes, you are absolutely right: China won’t allow Russia to be defeated, but it has no need for a strong Russia, either.
Freezing the conflict would be quite acceptable to China. It is also not in China’s interest for the West to lift sanctions on Russia; that is a fact.
And another fact is that China is profiting handsomely from this war. It sells dual-use goods to both sides of the conflict.
Yes, I agree that China acts solely in its own interests… its GDP is skyrocketing. China is prospering—that is indisputable.
Given this unarguable fact, the next question is who is in a better position to provide support. Can the US help Europe more than China can help Russia?
Yes, if it wanted to, China could help Russia win. But let me repeat: if it wanted to!
You can see that the US and Europe have essentially gone all-in right now; they are stretched to their limits—especially considering the war in Iraq. Meanwhile, China is taking it easy. Confucianism advocates for victory without a fight. That’s certainly wise.
I’d like that too—sitting on the couch with popcorn, watching a brutal slaughter, and winning in the process. That’s not something I know how to do; I guess you have to be really smart for that… )))
If I’d made smart moves like that in my life, I swear to you, I’d be a millionaire by now! There was a time when I could have climbed the ladder of success by stepping right over the heads of my loved ones and partners. I could have shortchanged my workers while raking in huge profits. I thought that was the right way to do things—that somewhere up in heaven, it would be duly recognized… what a naive fool I was!
But when I suddenly found myself cast aside by life, I had an epiphany. First, I stopped going to church because I realized it only “helps” the rich and successful. Second, I realized that in the capitalist world, you won’t get anywhere if you’re honest, open, and decent—you simply won’t survive. That’s a dogma, Comrade! A Biblical one, at that. ))))
The capitalist world is a three-headed serpent; the names of those heads are cunning, meanness, and betrayal!
And I don’t see what they can do to get out of Iran now. The problem is that Israel is now in an existential crisis, and they will not allow the US to leave. Given the amount of influence Israel has over the US, they will continue to drag them into deeper conflict with Iran. We can already see how the war has restarted and likely to escalate now that the US is attacking stuff like water facilities in Iran.
Yes, I fully agree—however cynical it may sound—that Russia was lucky in this regard.
but once the global energy shock hits
In southern Russia, especially in Crimea, people are facing major fuel shortages. I agree with you that this won’t be fatal for the situation at the front, but for the people, it’s a huge problem.
Listen to this guy—he’s Russian; I’ve marked the spot. Just keep in mind that he might be downplaying the issue, since he’s a Komsomolskaya Pravda correspondent.
https://youtu.be/hGi66DHc5TI?t=309
He’s a war correspondent of this caliber:


In Russia, Marx is inseparable from Lenin.
By the way, listen to the story of how Russian officials, together with their Chinese counterparts, are selling a massive Soviet factory to China for scrap metal. It’s a disgrace!
When Platoshkin exposed this criminal scheme, a local official simply blew up the factory to cover his tracks…
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/qsA-IegBgcg
And once again, capitalism is doing harm—this time, to the advancement of progress.
As I understand it, during the Iron Curtain era, the only information that reached us from the other side was propaganda. And as I’ve come to realize decades later: Soviet propaganda told 90% the truth about the West, whereas Western propaganda told 90% lies about the USSR.
That is why people in the West are only now beginning to understand what socialism actually is—now that advanced Western capitalism has gone into a tailspin. I remember when I first joined Western forums back in 2015; people’s jaws would drop at the stories I told. At first, they didn’t believe me—they thought I was making it all up! I became very popular very quickly on that first Western forum.
Comrade, those are just Western tall tales… )))) Деревянные игрушки, скользкий подоконник, каляска без дна))) I was never a homebody as a child. There was a sports ground in every courtyard; we played soccer there every day—it was impossible to get me to come home. In the winter, they’d flood the area to make an ice rink, and we’d play hockey. When my parents bought me a computer—a ZX Spectrum—I went wild and started skipping school, but even so, there was always a book on my nightstand; I read every day before bed.