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Cake day: July 1st, 2023

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  • This is probably a standard headline for reporting trends, but really it’s Steadily Poor:

    Republicans largely approve of the president’s handling of Iran, immigration, Israel, and the economy, while most Democrats and independents disapprove.

    President Trump’s overall job approval rating is holding steady. Thirty-seven percent approve of the way he is handling his job, unchanged from the AP-NORC poll conducted in May and similar to the 36% who approved in early February, before the war in Iran began. The public continues to disapprove of his handling of Iran, with 34% approving, also unchanged from May. The poll was conducted as Trump suggested a deal with Iran had been reached but before it was signed.

    Something I don’t quite get with these polls and what I wish to see more of is a trend of what percent of people self-identify as independent, Republican, and Democrat over time. One would expect that the concentration of die-hard Republicans would remain unchanged or even strengthen in time as the more dilute “moderate” Republicans abandon the party in switching to Independent. Put another way, if only 10 Republicans remained in the party, you can bet your ass they’d be the biggest zealots and he’d have 100% approval among Republicans. I’m sure weighting techniques factor this in, but I’d just like to see how party identity has changed over the years more in these polls.

    Interestingly, the methodology for this poll indicates an oversampling of Jewish respondents.