Yeah thats another good one. Its almost like it would be useful to see what each tracker would do in the following scenarios:
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Create a persona instance with a couple of accounts (like 3)
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See what each site says
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Create a post/ create comment/ upvote sample post.
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Ban an account (How many active users are now being counted? How many comments? Did that comment/post go away retroactively?)
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other such experiments…
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Let everyone know the results.
Wish I had more time.
Your probably right. And if an instance defederates with others, it may look like the number of users dropped without actually dropping.