• 0 Posts
  • 3 Comments
Joined 12 days ago
cake
Cake day: July 30th, 2026

help-circle
  • Not a direct answer to the question but some more context.

    As well as many of the factors people have already highlighted (underproduction, Ukraine, arrogance amongst the sycophants and alpha male warhawks of the Trump cabinet), asymmetric warfare has heavily limited the level of degradation that the US can do to the IRGC. Iran have planned for this for decades and built missile cities buried under granite mountains with production lines compartmentalised (e.g. so fuel and warheads can be separated in blast-proof storage facilities) and hidden within mountain saddles that helps protect them against US strikes. Iran is able to continue firing at the same speed and strength as at the start of the war, China/Russia are providing satellite intel of US military installations across the Middle East and months of Iranian attacks are really thinning out radar and interceptor batteries.

    It’s also pretty clear that the US target bank is quite depleted. The US promised to strike Iran hard for every ship they fired at in Hormuz, but it was only limited to small radar/launch sites along the coast that have little strategic value. The only way for the US to escalate this is to start striking Iran civilian infrastructure (power plants, bridges, water desalination plants), but I’m sure the gulf states have big objections to that. The Houthis on their own have been fucking up Saudi oil production for the last month with small missile/drone waves.

    I think the US plan is to just pretend the war isn’t happening any more. They’re no longer responding to Iran destroying ships in Hormuz and are giving no real objections to the new Iran/Oman agreement to control the strait, despite it literally blacklisting US/Israeli ships and giving Iran full power over ingoings/outgoings.