Who’s winning POTUS? Will it be called on election night or drawn out? Congress? Etc
It’s a toss up and I have no special crystal ball, but if I had to do arbitrage on it I think the risk of a 2000-style tie is even higher than projected (already 10% per Nate Silver), just based on the vibes I’m hearing.
Violence.
I mean, we’re already a capitol storming and a few assassination attempts in. You need to be a bit more specific.
Trump seems to always exceed expectations, so I fear he will almost certainly win unless a health condition forces him out of the race.
However, I have consistently under estimated Harris, so maybe I’ll be wrong yet again and she will be the one to overperform…
It’s gonna be a shitshow.
The current betting odds aggregations have trump at 58%, harris at 41%
https://www.realclearpolling.com/betting-odds/2024/president
Well that’s disheartening. Can’t believe that many people prefer a racist con man to a competent woman.
A 34 time convicted felon child rapist pussy grabber racist con man
You could keep adding to that.
People are big mad and think electing a brain-damaged version of Mussolini makes some kind of point.
Betting markets don’t really have any predictive value. It’s all vibes.
Wikipedia lists Real Clear Politics as having become more conservative and right leaning in recent years. Their polls may not be as accurate.
That’s not a poll. It’s an aggregate / average of betting markets.
Without question Trump is winning. It feels like it should defy logic, but it actually matches with the current mood in the nation, and the state of the ‘culture war’.
Before all ballots are counted, Trump declares himself a winner and starts sounding the alarm about illegitimate counts. Trump then contests battleground states and has enough alternate electors that the final score gets escalated to the Supreme Court, who grants Trump the win while they “figure it all out”. They declare widespread “issues” with the election and localized protests ensue. Trump declares martial law and tells the police to “be tough”. Several injuries and deaths set more riots and protests. Trump orders the national guard to help with crowd control. An overzealous soldier opens with live fire on the crowd, killing several due to stampedes and general chaos.
Trump blames chaos on Democrats and claims illegal immigrants were behind the violence, begins his mass deportation exercise. Numerous non immigrants are rounded up “as sympathizers” and taken to holding facilities in Texas and several other border states where they are held indefinitely without trial.
Trump creates a tip line to report “illegal aliens” and people start reporting their neighbours and anyone else they find “suspicious”. People are always keeping their eyes out and keeping their lives to themselves out of fear they may be reported.
Trump and his regime create a committee to oversee and overhaul elections “due to all that bad corruption” and suggests a moratorium on elections until “they figure it out”.
They don’t ever figure it out.
Very plausible. If you need any recipes for when the California vegetables stops coming HMU, I’ve made a project out of it.
So basically “how to speedrun dictatorship”
The 1% will benefit.
2016 2: electric boogaloo. Harris loses PA and MI due to campaigning on continued genocide, leaving her with a popular vote victory but electoral college loss.
That’s what I’d bet on if I were a betting man.
My rational side wants to see Harris win, but the anarchist in me wants to see Trump win, just to see what would happen. Not living in the US, obviously.
Trump winning could be a disaster for the whole world since US is such a major player in basically everything, but my anarchist side does not listen.
You’re a piss poor anarchist if you want the the orange fascist to win
They’ll both be disasters for the USA.
Trump will be a disaster because millions of Americans who are currently on the brink of poverty will sink into poverty under his policies, amplifying all kinds of social problems and civil unrest.
Harris will be a disaster because she will escalate unpopular military conflicts, overextending the military, further lessening the prestige of the US, and encouraging countries to de-dollarize.
The next four years are going to be rough. There’s no avoiding it.
What does Trump winning have to do with Anarchy?
They mean in the “chaos” sense, not the Lemmy-friendly sense.
Same story we saw in 2016, Trump has no policy other than destroying American institutions and the status quo, so people get this sort of collapse fetish and pick him for that reason alone.
Would U.S.A. foreign policy be drastically affected by who becomes the president?
As a non-American, I think it’d have more impact on the people of the U.S.A and maybe immediate neighbours like Mexico.I don’t know, to quote someone I read here: “The world shits when the US farts”
US electing an authoritarian might encourage authoritarians all around the world (even more)
US electing an authoritarian might encourage authoritarians all around the world (even more)
That maybe a consequence but US foreign policy might improve or remain unchanged under Trump.
Haha, u kidding?
They will improve with authoritarians, where Trump can personally benefit from.
For everyone else it will worsen and set global policies back by at least one decade.
Improve in the sense it will stop butting it’s nose everywhere.
My prediction is that every other country will watch with a mix of concern and popcorn
Canadian here. Mostly concern. Anybody here that thinks it’s a fun show hasn’t thought very far ahead.
As a Brazilian, this too. Also, some PTSD from remembering recent Brazilian elections (sometimes USA and Brazil are so similar that they seem like brothers separated at birth, your Trump was our Bolsonaro, your Biden is our Lula, I wouldn’t be surprised if your Harris is our Dilma without the “stockpiling of wind” thing).
As a non-American, this. And I honestly don’t understand why so many people in our neck of the woods aren’t more concerned about this. You guys are such a heavy hitter from a socio-economical standpoint, that anything which goes down in your country will inevitably affect everyone else.
Civil war, because Trump won’t accept the result and Musk will be fueling the hate.
I don’t know, somebody would have to start shooting back. The only real candidate is the existing military, and I’m not sure they or the Democrats are up for it.
The material conditions aren’t ripe for a civil war just yet, nor for a revolution. Things have not gotten dire for the US Empire abroad just yet.
Jill Stein comes from behind to take the surprise win. Dems and Republicans both claim it’s stolen.
Right now I think Harris is more likely to win than Trump, but it would also not be an enormous surprise if Trump wins.
