Vice President Kamala Harris' refusal to break with the Biden administration's support for Israel's assault on Gaza cost her millions of potential Democratic voters. Will the Democratic Party learn from this and listen to its voters who want leaders to oppose sending more weapons to Israel? #Gaza #ElectionImpact
Another article that uses the same poll that says 19 million people who voted for Biden didn’t vote despite not having any sources for that number. The Harris and Biden vote difference was under 6 million. 19 million is multiplying that times around 3.
Edit: I also find it interesting that so many of the polls we have had about the reasons people didn’t vote for Harris have different reasons. Some say Inflation, this one says Gaza. Just interesting how different polls can be conducted. This one was also backed by the Institute for Middle East Understanding so, while I don’t think they necessarily rigged it, I am not surprised that a poll backed by a Middle East organization showed support for Gaza was a deciding reason for a lot of voters. Regardless, Gaza had some impact that can’t be disregarded.
Second edit: to be clear, I’m not saying the poll says 19 million, I’m saying the article does with no evidence. I’m keeping the original wording and correcting it in this edit for clarities sake.
It also addresses issues raised in your edit (e.g. “Across the six battleground states that flipped from Biden to Trump, 20% of these voters said “ending Israel’s violence in Gaza” was their top issue in deciding not to vote for Harris, the second-most cited reason behind only the economy (33%).” - to your point about how they didn’t discuss the economy).
That’s what I’m saying about the 19 million figure. But the articles second paragraph is this
A YouGov poll backed by the Institute for Middle East Understanding (IMEU) Policy Project and released on Wednesday showed that among the 19 million people who voted for President Joe Biden in 2020 but did not vote in 2024, nearly a third named Israel’s U.S.-backed war on Gaza as a top reason for staying home.
My point is that that 19 million figure makes no sense/has no evidence to support it and isn’t mentioned anywhere in the poll.
Yes an edit: Also that’s a good point about the battleground state stats, thanks for pointing it out. I know Gaza had an impact, its just interesting seeing how much of an impact it actually had, which other polls show as much lower. Again, different polls, different methodologies, and different ways of getting the poll participants with Yougov doing purely online polls.
There were 3 that I found but apparently, when i looked them back up for this comment, two were written by the same person on different news sites so may as well be the same article so you’re right, there aren’t a many articles about it, although i wouldnt be surprised if more are written over the next few days.
And if they’re just copying the IMEU press release then that brings into question where are they getting that 19 million figure? Moves the issue from the news organizations to the IMEU, which is probably worse than just a news org being wrong.
The biggest reason is that voter turnout wasn’t repressed, the 2020 turnout was artificially inflated by emergency vote by mail rules due to the pandemic.
2012 - Obama 65,915,795 Romney 60,933,504
Total - 126,849,299
2016 - Trump 62,984,828 Clinton 65,853,514
Total - 128,838,342
2020 - Biden 81,283,501 Trump 74,223,975
Total - 155,507,476
2024 - Trump 77,303,573 Harris 75,019,257
Total - 152,322,830
I would say those numbers mean every election where voters are not able to vote by mail is an election with repressed voter turnout. Because now we know what turnout can be if vote by mail is an option.
No, I know that, but that still doesn’t provide evidence for what the article states, that 19 million people who voted for Biden stayed home. That’s my problem because there is no evidence for that figure.
I agree! At most this shows 6 million stayed home, not 19. You could increase it to 9 million if you assume the Trump +3 million was a flip instead of staying home.
The 19M could add up if there were 13M voters who either voted for the first time or voted for Trump in the last election. Say if Harris’s total was 56M Biden voters, 8M first time voters, and 5M Trump 2020 voters.
That still seems like a stretch, but it’s not outside the realm of possibility. Someone would need to do some work to show that though, not just say it and be expected to be trusted.
That’s a massive stretch with 0 evidence to support it so is just speculation. Not literally impossible, but multiple new orgs saying 19 million without that evidence is fucking weird.
To piggyback on this, left-leaning echo chambers tend to underestimate the impact of turning on Israel amongst older voters, who tend to be more religious.
From the other article covering the poll, Biden-Harris respondents were also asked how a change in policy would have affected their enthusiasm. 5% said it would make them less enthusiastic, 35% said more.
lol so this is cherry-picked data. They link to a source that shows if Kamala had been more conservative in these areas, she would’ve had more support:
It also said that 14% said her support of Israel made them more likely to vote for her. 9% said it made them less likely.
Maybe MOST importantly is that the issues the polled on, in order of importance to voters, shows Gaza ranks LAST in importance. Shame on Common Dreams, I expected better.
It’s so easy to lie with data, thanks for illustrating that
Edit: okay, this is hilarious. Even the source they linked is wrong: “New Poll Shows Gaza Was #1 Issue For Biden 2020 Voters Who Did Not Vote For Harris”
Then the actual data disproves this. Neither for Biden voters who switched or Biden voters who backed Harris, it was not the top. For those who switched, it was NEAR the top. For others, it was dead last.
I definitely agree with that. We can argue about whether Harris would have benefited from saying she’d stop arms being sent to Israel, but to say it wouldn’t have hurt her as well is ignoring how much of the public supports Israel. There’s also a lot of people on the left who would have simultaneously said they’re glad she supports stopping arms sales to Israel and yet still find some other reason not to vote for her. The decision on which way for the campaign to go on the Palestinian genocide isn’t as easy or clear cut as many seem to think.
Another article that uses the same poll that says 19 million people who voted for Biden didn’t vote despite not having any sources for that number. The Harris and Biden vote difference was under 6 million. 19 million is multiplying that times around 3.
Edit: I also find it interesting that so many of the polls we have had about the reasons people didn’t vote for Harris have different reasons. Some say Inflation, this one says Gaza. Just interesting how different polls can be conducted. This one was also backed by the Institute for Middle East Understanding so, while I don’t think they necessarily rigged it, I am not surprised that a poll backed by a Middle East organization showed support for Gaza was a deciding reason for a lot of voters. Regardless, Gaza had some impact that can’t be disregarded.
Second edit: to be clear, I’m not saying the poll says 19 million, I’m saying the article does with no evidence. I’m keeping the original wording and correcting it in this edit for clarities sake.
The poll doesn’t say 19 million anywhere
It also addresses issues raised in your edit (e.g. “Across the six battleground states that flipped from Biden to Trump, 20% of these voters said “ending Israel’s violence in Gaza” was their top issue in deciding not to vote for Harris, the second-most cited reason behind only the economy (33%).” - to your point about how they didn’t discuss the economy).
That’s what I’m saying about the 19 million figure. But the articles second paragraph is this
My point is that that 19 million figure makes no sense/has no evidence to support it and isn’t mentioned anywhere in the poll.
Yes an edit: Also that’s a good point about the battleground state stats, thanks for pointing it out. I know Gaza had an impact, its just interesting seeing how much of an impact it actually had, which other polls show as much lower. Again, different polls, different methodologies, and different ways of getting the poll participants with Yougov doing purely online polls.
I don’t see how an error in a news article reporting on a poll done by a separate organization invalidates the results of that poll
Fair. But I also never said anything about it invalidating the poll.
Yes yes i do edits: i do want to say though it’s not just this one article mentioning the 19 million, each article about this poll has mentioned it.
I believe there are only two articles, which are presumably just sourcing from an IMEU press release for their poll.
There were 3 that I found but apparently, when i looked them back up for this comment, two were written by the same person on different news sites so may as well be the same article so you’re right, there aren’t a many articles about it, although i wouldnt be surprised if more are written over the next few days.
And if they’re just copying the IMEU press release then that brings into question where are they getting that 19 million figure? Moves the issue from the news organizations to the IMEU, which is probably worse than just a news org being wrong.
The biggest reason is that voter turnout wasn’t repressed, the 2020 turnout was artificially inflated by emergency vote by mail rules due to the pandemic.
2012 - Obama 65,915,795 Romney 60,933,504
Total - 126,849,299
2016 - Trump 62,984,828 Clinton 65,853,514
Total - 128,838,342
2020 - Biden 81,283,501 Trump 74,223,975
Total - 155,507,476
2024 - Trump 77,303,573 Harris 75,019,257
Total - 152,322,830
I would say those numbers mean every election where voters are not able to vote by mail is an election with repressed voter turnout. Because now we know what turnout can be if vote by mail is an option.
This is the answer. Colorado has long had vote by mail. This should be available in every state, and it’s criminal that it is not.
Oh, definitely, the participation in vote by mail states is roughly double states where voting in person is the only option.
Did you look at your own numbers? Trump did better than he did in 2020, while Harris did substantially worse than Biden.
Substantially worse, but not 19 million worse.
Trump was +3 million, Harris was -6.
No, I know that, but that still doesn’t provide evidence for what the article states, that 19 million people who voted for Biden stayed home. That’s my problem because there is no evidence for that figure.
I agree! At most this shows 6 million stayed home, not 19. You could increase it to 9 million if you assume the Trump +3 million was a flip instead of staying home.
Millions of people have voted by mail for decades, that doesn’t explain why more people voted for Biden in 2020 than anyone in 2024.
Millions more had the option available to them with no restriction due to Covid.
The 19M could add up if there were 13M voters who either voted for the first time or voted for Trump in the last election. Say if Harris’s total was 56M Biden voters, 8M first time voters, and 5M Trump 2020 voters.
That still seems like a stretch, but it’s not outside the realm of possibility. Someone would need to do some work to show that though, not just say it and be expected to be trusted.
That’s a massive stretch with 0 evidence to support it so is just speculation. Not literally impossible, but multiple new orgs saying 19 million without that evidence is fucking weird.
To piggyback on this, left-leaning echo chambers tend to underestimate the impact of turning on Israel amongst older voters, who tend to be more religious.
From the other article covering the poll, Biden-Harris respondents were also asked how a change in policy would have affected their enthusiasm. 5% said it would make them less enthusiastic, 35% said more.
lol so this is cherry-picked data. They link to a source that shows if Kamala had been more conservative in these areas, she would’ve had more support:
Immigration Fossil fuels Ukraine (withdrawing support)
It also said that 14% said her support of Israel made them more likely to vote for her. 9% said it made them less likely.
Maybe MOST importantly is that the issues the polled on, in order of importance to voters, shows Gaza ranks LAST in importance. Shame on Common Dreams, I expected better.
It’s so easy to lie with data, thanks for illustrating that
Edit: okay, this is hilarious. Even the source they linked is wrong: “New Poll Shows Gaza Was #1 Issue For Biden 2020 Voters Who Did Not Vote For Harris”
Then the actual data disproves this. Neither for Biden voters who switched or Biden voters who backed Harris, it was not the top. For those who switched, it was NEAR the top. For others, it was dead last.
Also, the poll is exclusive to swing states.
Skimmed the article and I’m still confused. Why can’t people just link to the actual data?
I definitely agree with that. We can argue about whether Harris would have benefited from saying she’d stop arms being sent to Israel, but to say it wouldn’t have hurt her as well is ignoring how much of the public supports Israel. There’s also a lot of people on the left who would have simultaneously said they’re glad she supports stopping arms sales to Israel and yet still find some other reason not to vote for her. The decision on which way for the campaign to go on the Palestinian genocide isn’t as easy or clear cut as many seem to think.