IT’S OFFICIAL, FOLKS! Trump thinks he can just slap tariffs on our friends abroad and watch us ‘compete’ again? Newsflash: this only hurts the little guy (and the planet). Just got word from Acer CEO that those tariffs have already led to a 10% price hike for laptops in the US. That’s right, we’re paying more for the very devices that are supposed to help us succeed in an era of ‘American greatness’. Meanwhile, Trump is too busy coddling his corporate pals to care about the real American people. Wake up, sheeple! It’s time to stop voting for politicians who only look out for their buddies on Wall Street.
I hope there is a prediction market on this at some point because I do not think it’s likely that they will be able to block elections. I’d love to put my money where my mouth is.
Oh they won’t stop / block the elections initially they’ll hold that first one & just conveniently get 75+% of the vote like every dictator before him.
I’m happy to put money on it if you can find a market. I’ve been unfortunately right too much, not because I’m smart but because you can literally pull out a history of Nazi rise and map it onto MAGA and the last 10 years. The only hard bit is guessing the timings, not what, just when.
I’d really like you guys to break out of this and prove me wrong
Here you go friend: this is a prediction market on whether the Republicans or Democrats will win the house next year: https://kalshi.com/markets/controlh/house-winner
If your prediction is right and there are no more elections this will be easy money for you.
Ok, but this isn’t a betting site, this is an options contract, which given the current price split of 73c:28c is not a good buy (winning isn’t profitable and you’re tying your money up for 2years).
The price however is inline with my statement - that market considers a GOP win a near certainty.
I’ve checked the mainstream betting sites and GOP are solidly odds on (4/6 on through 8/13on) which isnt hugely profitable but I guess it’ll shorten even further
Edit to add odds screencap
You are reading the results backwards - Kalshi predicts a Democratic win at ~70% (as of now) probability. I agree the payback isn’t huge… but if you’re SURE then it’s easy money!
<shrug> whatever. I don’t know who kalshi are and I don’t trust anything American. Betting agencies in my own country have it at a bit worse than evens. I trust paddypower or bet365 who have been around decades to pay out a lot more than some US tech bros. Ignoring the fact it’s not a bet, it’s an options contract.
And yes, you can keep circling around poking at it but I stand by the assertion that there won’t be a fair election in 2026 because a) trump has been running line by line down the Hitler playbook and b) he said the quiet part out loud (after nov24 i wont need your votes) and c) musk’s kid outright said the same thing too and 4year olds dont drop clangers like that unless someone has said it in front of him
Ping me in two years
What’s stopping you from placing a wager on your favorite platforms then? You seem to feel quite confident it’s going to happen, yet for some reason aren’t willing to get that “easy” money…
Already have. The biggest delay was I dont normally bet so had to create an account
Good luck out there! I am taking up the opposing position, and I am curious who will win.
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