Good read. Seems on the level.

I think we’re going to move directionally that way, toward more tariffs, but I don’t think it will be anywhere near the magnitude, certainly not on a sustained basis, of some of the things that have been proposed.

I wish I had his optimism. He’s probably right that it won’t be sustained, but how that looks in practice I suspect will be worse than he thinks. He’s making that judgement off of a presupposition of sane choices from the White House, and that’s just not how Trump does things, especially not this time around, and he does not have people advising him who are skilled in economics.