If the U.S. joins in it will only escalate the situation. Iran has repeatedly threatened to shut down the Strait of Hormuz, through which ~20% of the world’s oil transits, but has not taken any such action so far. However, the more desperate it is, the more likely that will occur. While oil prices have jumped a bit since the start of the war, currently ~$72 a barrel, if Iran blockades the strait (and presumably mines it), we’re looking at oil jumping to ~$130 per barrel. While the U.S. is currently teetering on the edge of a recession due to the tariffs, such an oil shock would almost certainly bring on a significant recession. Even more concerning is the potential for more escalation, and Trump has repeatedly shown interest in using nuclear weapons. I can easily envision a scenario where Trump thinks it’s a good idea to nuke Tehran to serve as a lesson for the world that he’s a big tough guy.
I genuinely think he’s got that “someone told me I’m not allowed to do something so now it’s my only thought and I will do it no matter what” mentality that 6 year Olds have.
Someone told him he’s not allowed to use nuclear weapons, so he wants nothing more than to have an excuse.
If the U.S. joins in it will only escalate the situation. Iran has repeatedly threatened to shut down the Strait of Hormuz, through which ~20% of the world’s oil transits, but has not taken any such action so far. However, the more desperate it is, the more likely that will occur. While oil prices have jumped a bit since the start of the war, currently ~$72 a barrel, if Iran blockades the strait (and presumably mines it), we’re looking at oil jumping to ~$130 per barrel. While the U.S. is currently teetering on the edge of a recession due to the tariffs, such an oil shock would almost certainly bring on a significant recession. Even more concerning is the potential for more escalation, and Trump has repeatedly shown interest in using nuclear weapons. I can easily envision a scenario where Trump thinks it’s a good idea to nuke Tehran to serve as a lesson for the world that he’s a big tough guy.
I genuinely think he’s got that “someone told me I’m not allowed to do something so now it’s my only thought and I will do it no matter what” mentality that 6 year Olds have.
Someone told him he’s not allowed to use nuclear weapons, so he wants nothing more than to have an excuse.
Krasnov was told to raise the price of oil to over $100/ barrel. Mother Russia needs high oil prices to fund the war.
So, pressure for Iran to mine the strait is coming from both adversary and ally. Poor Ukraine.