I recently saw a post here commemorating Xi on his 70th birthday. Quite the accomplishment in terms of how well he is doing as a leader, and in terms of personal health.

However, this also got me thinking. What comes after Xi? Sadly he is not immortal, and is rapidly approaching an age where he will not be able to as effectively carry out his duties. Plus he deserves to retire at some point to also enjoy his life.

From this, are there plans for who will take Xi’s place? Who are the candidates with the most potential in terms of being elected? What will be China’s path after Xi’s resignation in terms of economic, geopolitical, military, and social development? Will Xi’s path be continued, or will a new leader decide to change course? Will a continuation of Dengist policies be committed to, as Xi did, or will there be a return to the policies of the Four?

Preferably Comrades who are Chinese, have ties to China, or are knowledgeable in the subject could give their observations and opinions, but for everyone else, what are your thoughts?

  • qwename@lemmygrad.ml
    16·
    1 year ago

    (Repost due to comments disappearing)

    Xi isn’t the first General Secretary (总书记) of the CCCPC (Central Committee of the CPC, 中共中央委员会) to serve a third term, Jiang served 13 years from 1989~2002 for 3 terms, and Xi is only in his 11th year since Oct 2022. Deng was General Secretary for 10 years in 1956~1966 (this was just 1 term), back when the Central Committee still had a President position.

    In short, serving 10 years for 2 terms as a General Secretary was never the norm, only Hu Jintao fits this description. As for the President of the PRC (中华人民共和国主席), Mao (1949~1959, and technically only 1954~1959 counts, he was President of the PRC People’s Government in 1949~1954, but we’ll let that slide), Jiang (1993~2003) and Hu (2003~2013) served 10 years for 2 terms, hardly a tradition/norm. Xi is indeed serving an unprecedented third term as President of the PRC, after limits were removed in 2018’s amendment to the constitution.

    Now for the various scenarios in 2027:

    1. Xi continues serving from 2027~2032 (5 years), not unthinkable.
    2. New leader in 2027~2032, and depending on the merits of the term, will continue serving until 2037/2042.

    If scenario 2 occurs, the candidates to look at are:

    1. Current 7 members of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the 20th CCCPC. (中央政治局常委)
    2. Current 24 members of the Political Bureau of the 20th CCCPC. (中央政治局委员)
    3. Current 205 members of the 20th CCCPC. (中央委员)
    4. Current 171 alternate members of the 20th CCCPC. (中央候补委员)

    Link (in Chinese) to all the 205+171 candidates mentioned above, good luck finding the next leader!

      • qwename@lemmygrad.ml
        10·
        1 year ago

        From Article 22 of the Constitution of the CPC:

        Empty seats on the Central Committee shall be filled by alternate members in order of the number of votes they were elected by.

        Empty seats usually appear when members are expelled from the Party due to violations, less often when they pass away during the term.

        In the published list of alternate members, the names are listed in descending order by votes received, as opposed to the list of official members which list names by the number of strokes in their surnames. This is an important difference as you actually get to see the ranking by votes. (Tidbit: Xi was listed last out of 151 alternate members of the 15th CCCPC in 1997)

        There are also alternate members for other levels of Party committee, not just the Central Committee.