Can states tax the hoards created by military spending? Ofc they can’t (or won’t). :P

Why Tuesday? Stock market manipulation proly

Russia still has ‘Visa’ and ‘Mastercard’ branded cards, they just use local payment rails instead. Even before 2022 this was the case for local transactions albeit less so.

VISA/MC have advantage that you can use them for foreign transactions, it’s widely accepted provided your country isn’t sanctioned. So a hybrid approach like what Russia did between 2014-2022 may be good for Europe. Worst case, US sanctions you and you lose ability to do some foreign currency transactions, but Euro and similar transactions work just fine.

But I know its legally and politically difficult in Europe. Even the CBDC plan listed in the article has banks pissed about losing deposits from their balance sheet to the Central Bank (since Digital Euros are central bank liabilities) and fees.

That’s why

Despite the substantial progress, two major issues remain: ‘holding limits’ and ‘compensation’. Holding limits determine the maximum amount users can keep in a digital euro wallet, while compensation mechanisms concern the fee models for commercial banks that provide digital euro services.

to prevent too much deposit flight, and btw you won’t get paid ECB interest rate with CBDC unlike the banks who hold reserves.

and VISA/MC cards still have two other advantages. i. it’s widely accepted worldwide, you can use it for foreign exchange. ii. chargebacks are possible. The latter can be fixed with locally branded cards (eg Russia has Mir) or I suppose CBDC can be made to support it, but does the EU want to?

Also “Belt and Road” and donation money could end up in china again because of China’s export surplus …

True, but the country at least gets something real ie Chinese and foreign goods.

The question to be asked is where the countries are getting the Yuan from. Not whether the trade is settled in Yuan.

Natural way of obtaining Yuan would be i. China has a trade deficit with your country ii. China buys your assets/give you Yuan. For many countries neither is the case, or at the least the latter isn’t sufficient to cover their trade deficit. So, the other way is exporting to other countries with which Yuan has enough liquidity with (Dollar, Euro, Pound) and exchanging it for Yuan.

The reason why China Russia trade works so well is because they both want each others real goods (for China, mainly oil), and Russia wants to accumulate Yuan, get Chinese goods. China Iran trade works well too, China wants crude, Iran wants Yuan both for importing from other countries and China and to accumulate as reserves.

If your country has a trade deficit with China (ie your country can’t provide what China wants), if you didn’t export to others ie countries excl China/didn’t obtain capital flows from others, your trade with China will be limited to the amount of Yuan you can obtain by exporting to China (much lower than what you are currently importing), via remittances (not a lot), net income, capital flows from China.

There’s some good parts such as Chinese loans, investments and so on which finance part of it but not enough to cover trade deficits as they currently exist.

The irony is all the countries have to swap their own currency for Dollars in the forex market, then swap those for Yuan (alternatively swap Dollar reserves they hold for Yuan) to pay the toll. So, the actual ‘source’ for earning Yuan is via Dollars which countries get by exporting to the US or capital flows from the US.

True de-dollarization would involve China supplying the world with Yuan via trade deficits (not what China wants) or capital flows (eg. Chinese Gov or private sector buys shares or debt abroad using Yuan, they’ll have to create a window for all this).

Iran could also ask foreigners to pay the toll in Iranian Rial, the underlying effect is similar, countries swap their Dollars for Yuan (whichever currencies have liquidity against Rial), or the Central Bank themselves accepts these and provides Rial at rate they fix (the Central Bank can always provide Rial), the CB path will be likely one since Iranian Rial doesn’t have deep forex markets.

Yep someone else has to buy it, with futures there is clearing house in between but there is always matching counterparty, when the contract expires you’ll be paid in cash using spx spot price at that point in time (it’s marked to market every day, they give/take money from your brokerage account).

So during market hours, the price of the futures ontract is derived from spot price, arbitrage (you get free money if the price drifts but timing is next to impossible for regular people) prevents futures from drifting too much spot (plus costs).

When spot markets are closed, they trade on what spot price should be if market were open, given that when market opens the prices snap to spot due to arbitrage (other way happens too). There are complexities like dividends are uncertain and there are carry costs like interest and expected dividends.

Yea Idk what stock market gamblers were thinking considering Polymarkets gamblers had priced US-Iran ceasefire at 38 cents (38% “chance” for ceasefire by April 30th).

Now it’s 32 cents.

Afaik their Central Bank is providing a quite a bit more Lebanese Pounds for Dollars. It’s been fixed at ~89,500/$ since 2024. The rate appears sustainable for now since it’s likely undervalued.

Good article on events in Lebanon, I do not agree with the author entirely, but it is mostly good.

It doesn’t help him. He loses one boatload of oil.

Wow so he understands exports are a cost? Unless of course, it’s the world giving the U.S. treats in exchange for Dollars in which case everyone’s looting the U.S. somehow.

Treatlers and capitalists are getting cheap foreign goods and currencies due to Government stablizing the Peso. This cannot work long term. Eventually, capital flows will reverse and you’ll run out of reserves, Peso crashes and so does his 35% favorablity.

Tautology?

Language gymnastics, when pressed they’ll say it’s not Iran doing airstrikes but airstrikes in Iran. Done by who? No one knows.

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Glide path for fuel prices is a good way to control price level and demand while adjusting to new supply constraint. Very good to see.

Basically Clavicular’s argument

cw (?): fat shaming

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Idk why but my Instagram reels is basically r/watchpeopledie or ai slop

Demand compression

For a second I thought irony poisoning