“The future ain’t what it used to be.”

-Yogi Berra

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Joined 3 years ago
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Cake day: July 29th, 2023

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  • Hottest take and speculative: Covid.

    And it kind of depends on how you think about the scale of impacts. Aspestos is horribly damaging for a few people directly exposed. The rate of exposure to covid is orders of magnitude higher.

    I think we’ve really only begun to see the long term impacts, and we know already of many of the long term issues related to decline in cognitive abilities, heart issues, all kinds of other stuff. But we right now, only know the small “near tail” behavior of those issues. It will take decades to find the “long tail” behavior of the disease.

    So if asbestos exposure is 100x as damaging as covid exposure, say… but 10,000x as many are exposed to covid… its overall impact is 100x that of asbestos.



  • As far as I can tell Trump is in no position to end this. He can only admit defeat or negotiate on Irans terms, because by controlling global trade, they control the terms.

    Also, afaik, oil prices should only just now start reacting materially to the previous month of events. The price shifts we’ve seen were preemptive. So buckle up ice vehicle drivers.

    What we can see is that the war machine has moved a significant number of bombers and personal into the region. What exactly they hope to accomplish with this… Far less clear.

    Iran can fairly easily mine the main channel of the straight. Mine clearing is a slow tedious exercise, and I’m not sure it’s ever been done under the threat of shahed before. Even if the US managed to both invade, and hold Kharg island, it’s own dubious speculation, it wouldn’t matter because you still couldn’t get the oil out of the straight.

    Alternatively, if Iran is able to maintain production of missiles and drones, which isn’t clear right now, but suggest they can; if they can get material support to the Houthis, then there is a clear path to them winning this war.

    Israel, fundamentally has the same flaws to it’s doctrine as the US. The highest of high tech, never commit troops until it’s basically a walk through rubble, battlefield omniscience, and total air supremacy. The key here, is that the Israeli aren’t willing to themselves due to support their military objectives.

    If the US leaves the region, and Iran controls the Hormuz while the Houthis control the Bab al Mandeb… Israels supply lines are massively cut off. And I do think if you see the US leave the region, you see the GCC countries, maybe only one or two at first, capitulate to Iran as the new master of the region. Then it becomes a competition between Israel and Iran, and without the US supplying them, Israel is cooked.







  • The point of the critique is that individuals have no power to make Twitter less important, or at least, not the audience of this show. Who she should be bringing that critique to is someone like Jon Stewart himself, not to Jon Stewart’s audience. And actually, Jon is a great example of someone who did exactly this, with his Crossfire video.

    Jon didn’t go on Crossfire and tell Crossfire’s audience to stop engaging with the content. He went on Crossfire and told the people in power to stop. Broadly, if you are ever doing something where you are shifting responsibility from those in power, to those out of power, you are doing the job of the oppressor.

    Literally, Lemmy does not matter whatsoever to reddit, and likewise, Mastodon does not matter whatsoever to Twitter. Those things do not matter. Moving to lemmy or mastadon might make you feel better, but it has made not one iota of difference to those platforms.

    Regulation, changes from those in positions of power, those can make a meaningful difference. But its utterly disingenuous to put things that require systemic reform as “collective reform”. Its utterly bonkers, and shields those in power, who can make different decisions, from needing to do so.