• 0 Posts
  • 45 Comments
Joined 3 months ago
cake
Cake day: April 22nd, 2026

help-circle







  • I can never make archive.ph links work, so here’s that Bloomberg article publicly available at Yahoo! Finance. The lede:

    Four-week average seaborne crude shipments were almost unchanged at 4.21 million barrels a day in the period to July 12, according to tanker-movements data compiled by Bloomberg. That was down by just 10,000 barrels from the highest since Russian troops invaded Ukraine in 2022, before which about 600,000 barrels a day was piped to refineries in Europe.

    But soaring crude exports aren’t being matched by deliveries, leaving the number of barrels at sea back near the highs from around the start of the year as cargoes of Russian oil build up off Mersa El-Hamra in Egypt and in the Riau archipelago, east of Singapore, tanker-tracking data show. A growing proportion of those supplies are on ships that appear to be idling, rather than in transit.

    I’m not sure if these numbers include any changes to export volume due to the recent halt of shipping in the Sea of Azov, but it’s still a little disappointing that they can still get the oil shipped even if it it’s not selling.

    Hopefully there’s new US sanctions that make potential buyers less willing, but Trump has been yapping about some trade deals and a blockade so maybe prices go way up.













  • Cyberboroshno’s analysis of satellite imagery tracked the shadow fleet’s collapse in numbers. Around 1 July, about 100 vessels sat north of the Crimean Bridge in the Azov Sea, with roughly 100 more to the south near the Taman port. By 6 July, the northern group had thinned to about 40. By 8 July, some 20 remained in the north, one of them burning, with massed movement toward the bridge.

    The northern vessels are mostly small river-class tankers, the analysts found. They shuttle fuel south, where cargo is transshipped onto much larger ships for direct Black Sea runs to importer countries. The vessels belong to Russia’s so-called shadow fleet, used to circumvent sanctions.

    I hadn’t seen this detail elsewhere, but it seems like disabling these smaller tankers would have a wider effect on Russia’s oil exports than just taking down ocean-going tankers. They hit a bunch of oil depots in that supply the tankers, too.