All the US markets are down today. Gary Marcus is declaring the GenAI bubble burst - I think that’s a little premature but I am smiling seeing Coreweave at -55% of their value at the start of the year.

The website puts expert consensus at 78% but does not disclose who those experts are. I have a PhD in computer science and natural language processing and I think this is horse shit. As do most of my peers and my PhD supervisor/prof who I still talk to. I don’t remember being asked and pretty sure my network weren’t either.

I suspect:

We got 10 of my EA friends together. Seven of them agreed and one of them got a bit waffly so I put them down for the 8%.

Many tech figures have spent the past few years relocating operations [to Texas], including former trillionaire Elon Musk.

Emphasis mine

Zing 🔥🔥🔥

If only the media would report it as “Altman is yapping some shit again” instead of breathlessly repeating his words like he’s a holy prophet

Reasonably good rebuttal

He links to comments on the orange site which are pretty predictable

At least we’ve moved past classifiers that we’ve had for 15 years Jev

I just don’t understand at all. Like I seriously don’t relate to any of this and don’t see the appeal whatsoever. What is this dumb shit?

Classic “apology in the small print” vibes 😂😂

Since all the attention is on Anthropic’s IPO, OpenAI claim to refuted the ETH hypothesis

Their usual strategy of “throw unsustainable amounts of compute at spaffing out lean proofs like infinite monkey theory and rope an army of humans in to validate the proofs” seems to apply here.

Oh nice I love badly edited fanfic. I’m assuming the big digital sneky boi eats all the non believing humans at the end? 🐍

Professional Rube

Kevin Roose

Kevin Rube - it was right there! 😯😄

And Palantir are… Oh right yeah

I am always bewildered trying to understand how Mayer achieved any level of success. In a just world she would be stuck in a middle management role in a cubicle somewhere. She started by achieving disproportionate success at Google

The other view, more common amongst long-time Googlers, is that Mayer is a publicity-craving, lucky early Googler, whose public persona outstripped her actual authority and power at the company, where she was once a rising star—thanks to a bullying managerial style

Then she took yahoo into a nose dive (love that this link is a yahoo link)

Since then she has pissed around with a bunch of investors money on shitty startups that don’t solve any real problems and apparently now joins the rest of the Fortune 500 CEOs in catching terminal AI Psychosis.

Its absolutely insane that anyone thinks these batshit people are “genius” or gives them money.

Of course not, they’re laying off 60k people because AI can totally do their job better than they can. I mean look at the roaring success of Copilot which is a superior product that sells like hot cakes pls ignore the shady bundling shenanigans that forced it into office packages people already purchased their CEO is a visionary who definitely doesn’t have terminal AI psychosis (hopefully unnecessary /s)

AHH remember the good old days when believing LLMs were conscious got you fired instead of huge multi-billion dollar investments and cult following? Pepperidge farm remembers

Obligatory Anthropic IPO sneer subthread. They are trying to value themselves at $2Tn despite losing $80bn in the first half of the year. Anyone wanna hold my bag?

Holy hell the dumb takes get dumber.

Edit: added the sources I grumpily handwaved about earlier

So immediately after plagiarising a human mathematician’s work, OpenAi dumped 722 unverified preprints on the maths community and assumed that they would be grateful… they’re not. Just because you brute forced something in lean doesn’t mean it actually has any meaning at all. Even the one-shotted Terry Tao had some wise words on this . Many of the preprints have already been proven wrong. OpenAI just extruded a huge pile of bullshit and told people “go dig”.

So the case for ennui is this: A computer program produces plausible sounding answers to your questions so you Eliza yourself. Then, when the computer starts producing volleys of diarrhea, instead of thinking “hmm maybe I was too quick to Eliza myself like that” it’s straight to “I’m sad and depressed because this very smart computer would never produce garbage. It must simply be smarter than me”

That potato farm retirement is looking more and more tempting every day and I’ve got at least 2 decades until I’m pensionable age FML.

Absolutely. They don’t care about anyone except themselves and getting rich. Maybe some of them enter politics with honourable intentions but by the time they get into power they are corrupted to hell

On the one hand

Zomg we need to protect the kids with a new Online Safety Act

Oh the other hand

Yeah if there is a disaster you’re on your own lads. Best start stockpiling toilet rolls!

Absolutely ridiculous. There is no agreed definition for what AI means so anyone could do profiling and data mining on your data - all the stuff GDPR was supposed to protect against - and just say “well I used AI”

So now we still have the bureaucracy and overhead of GDPR and the hostile front ends that ask you in terse language if you are happy for your data to be processed for legitimate interests with none of the actual benefits

FML

“Look the thing is, I am still planning to walk away from Omelas but it turns out they believe DRM is ethically and morally wrong here - I need to spend some time here to focus on my next book ‘Making Children Miserable Might Be Ok in some Circumstances’”