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NATO membership is a liability, and a risk. Consider Canada, just like the US, no country threatens it. But since they are part of NATO, in a hot war, they’re getting nuked as well. How smart is that? Not very smart at all. Canada does not need a military. Not a full one, at least. In the end, the USSR, and NATO were born out of security competition between two superpowers. However, the issue with NATO is that the USSR and the Warsaw Pact are no more. The US pretends Russia to still be the USSR.
On the US end, every NATO member that joins, the US must now procure defense for it, and assume the risk of conflict. Similar to the US-Israeli alliance, if Israel escalates a war with Iran, the US will be pressured to join in, because of the Israel lobby. We see how the US is entangled with alliances with Turkey and Israel, being non-friendly toward each other. In the fact, the US is allies with Turkey’s enemies, such as the Kurdish resistance in the Levant.
The US thinks by building up alliances and bearing the cost for those alliances is strength. What it does is overstretch the capabilities of the US, since now they have military bases all over the world that are vulnerable to a concentrated attack. For example, like the ones in the Middle East. Iran can wipe off the US military bases off the map if it wants. It has that capability. Not only does the US have to fund, and support Israel, now they have to launch B-52s against the Houthis. They are the principal enabler of Israeli policy. Now the US is fighting a war in Ukraine, a potential escalation in the Middle East, and this does not even consider China who is the most powerful rival the US has on this planet at the moment.
These different alliances the US has is essentially putting its enemies in a position where they need to be closer to each other to survive their common enemy: China+Iran+North Korea+Russia+Houthis. Where is Turkey going? Being shunned by the EU for years, it has no choice, but to look else where. I would question Turkey’s loyalty to a unified NATO.
I would say though that Turkey is unlikely to voluntarily exit NATO. Its military is currently too reliant on Western armaments, and its military industry exports to the West.
Also, historically Turkey has always aimed on playing a balancing act between bigger world powers. It has asked for BRICS membership, but if it can help it, it’ll keep itself a NATO member at the same time. Perhaps distantly so, but still officially a member.
This also secures it in playing provocation games with Greece, and insult games with Israel, which it partly does to appease its nationalist and conservative population.
The only way I see Turkey exiting NATO is if NATO ousts it (which will end up creating huge problems for the alliance, as Turkey is the second biggest military force in NATO, and the US bases in Turkey are considered of great strategic importance in relation to Russia and the Middle East), or if Turkey is pressured by its new partners to leave NATO (which BRICS is unlikely to do, as it would damage their credibility as a solution to US global hegemony). There’s also a third way, where the West commits some sort of unimaginably grave insult to Turkey, that inflames emotions in the country and forces Turkey to leave NATO voluntarily.
NATO membership is a liability, and a risk. Consider Canada, just like the US, no country threatens it. But since they are part of NATO, in a hot war, they’re getting nuked as well. How smart is that? Not very smart at all. Canada does not need a military. Not a full one, at least. In the end, the USSR, and NATO were born out of security competition between two superpowers. However, the issue with NATO is that the USSR and the Warsaw Pact are no more. The US pretends Russia to still be the USSR.
On the US end, every NATO member that joins, the US must now procure defense for it, and assume the risk of conflict. Similar to the US-Israeli alliance, if Israel escalates a war with Iran, the US will be pressured to join in, because of the Israel lobby. We see how the US is entangled with alliances with Turkey and Israel, being non-friendly toward each other. In the fact, the US is allies with Turkey’s enemies, such as the Kurdish resistance in the Levant.
The US thinks by building up alliances and bearing the cost for those alliances is strength. What it does is overstretch the capabilities of the US, since now they have military bases all over the world that are vulnerable to a concentrated attack. For example, like the ones in the Middle East. Iran can wipe off the US military bases off the map if it wants. It has that capability. Not only does the US have to fund, and support Israel, now they have to launch B-52s against the Houthis. They are the principal enabler of Israeli policy. Now the US is fighting a war in Ukraine, a potential escalation in the Middle East, and this does not even consider China who is the most powerful rival the US has on this planet at the moment.
These different alliances the US has is essentially putting its enemies in a position where they need to be closer to each other to survive their common enemy: China+Iran+North Korea+Russia+Houthis. Where is Turkey going? Being shunned by the EU for years, it has no choice, but to look else where. I would question Turkey’s loyalty to a unified NATO.
I would say though that Turkey is unlikely to voluntarily exit NATO. Its military is currently too reliant on Western armaments, and its military industry exports to the West.
Also, historically Turkey has always aimed on playing a balancing act between bigger world powers. It has asked for BRICS membership, but if it can help it, it’ll keep itself a NATO member at the same time. Perhaps distantly so, but still officially a member.
This also secures it in playing provocation games with Greece, and insult games with Israel, which it partly does to appease its nationalist and conservative population.
The only way I see Turkey exiting NATO is if NATO ousts it (which will end up creating huge problems for the alliance, as Turkey is the second biggest military force in NATO, and the US bases in Turkey are considered of great strategic importance in relation to Russia and the Middle East), or if Turkey is pressured by its new partners to leave NATO (which BRICS is unlikely to do, as it would damage their credibility as a solution to US global hegemony). There’s also a third way, where the West commits some sort of unimaginably grave insult to Turkey, that inflames emotions in the country and forces Turkey to leave NATO voluntarily.