As for “what will happen next”, the USA seems to want a cease fire and Iran is tired of getting bombed randomly, so Iran is going to close the Strait of Hormuz until it can get a better deal that means something. Israel and the USA don’t seem to want to make that kind of deal.
So Iran is going to start a recession by restricting oil supply for the rest of the world to get the rest of the world to intervene or to get that agreement from the USA and Israel.
This will likely last until November, when the midterm election is supposed to happen. Trump wasn’t popular already. A recession caused by military action is going to get a lot of people pissed. That recession will likely pop the AI bubble, both due to a loss of market liquidity and increased energy prices fueling AI.
My sense is that Trump is going for the “we’re at war and therefore it would be imprudent to have elections” argument. I agree that this will drag on, but I think it depends on if Trump is able to successfully pull off the first ever skipped election in US history.
I don’t think his supreme court would go that low to allow it, but…the chance that he succeeds is not 0%, which fucking sucks.
That’s my fear too. He wants as much power as possible. He started jan 6th to stay in power he’s easily capable of starting a war to stop an election. My fear is he’ll use war to stay on past his 2 terms
While it’s definitely still possible, I’m optimistic that the US doesn’t have a history of being forcibly silenced. While we may not be great at mass‑movement or general‑strike action on a national scale, or at least we are out of practice, we’re not used to being afraid of speaking our political beliefs and I don’t see that switching overnight.
In a nation like Russia, that kind of political submission to the state was seemingly drilled into people during the Soviet Union (really, through much of recent Russian history). No one runs into the street to take cell‑phone video of Russian thug troops rounding up political foes. They know that if they speak up, they’ll be alone, isolated, and face a bad fate. But in the US, we get outside and document. We know the names of Alex Pretti and Renee Good.
And consider hypothetical war support: there’s no way the political ruling class would survive if the US got into a meat‑grinder war like Russia’s in Ukraine, with millions of casualties. Vietnam almost broke the country, and there were only 58k deaths (not to belittle the number, but Russia has suffered around 1.2m in military losses in just four years).
I think Jan 6 was a wake‑up call that it’s not a joke and not crazy to think they would attempt (and could succeed with) a coup here. I 100% think Trump and co. will try again to stage a coup or fix themselves in power, but I don’t yet believe they’ll succeed.
As for “what will happen next”, the USA seems to want a cease fire and Iran is tired of getting bombed randomly, so Iran is going to close the Strait of Hormuz until it can get a better deal that means something. Israel and the USA don’t seem to want to make that kind of deal.
So Iran is going to start a recession by restricting oil supply for the rest of the world to get the rest of the world to intervene or to get that agreement from the USA and Israel.
This will likely last until November, when the midterm election is supposed to happen. Trump wasn’t popular already. A recession caused by military action is going to get a lot of people pissed. That recession will likely pop the AI bubble, both due to a loss of market liquidity and increased energy prices fueling AI.
Don’t get my hopes up
My sense is that Trump is going for the “we’re at war and therefore it would be imprudent to have elections” argument. I agree that this will drag on, but I think it depends on if Trump is able to successfully pull off the first ever skipped election in US history.
I don’t think his supreme court would go that low to allow it, but…the chance that he succeeds is not 0%, which fucking sucks.
That’s my fear too. He wants as much power as possible. He started jan 6th to stay in power he’s easily capable of starting a war to stop an election. My fear is he’ll use war to stay on past his 2 terms
While it’s definitely still possible, I’m optimistic that the US doesn’t have a history of being forcibly silenced. While we may not be great at mass‑movement or general‑strike action on a national scale, or at least we are out of practice, we’re not used to being afraid of speaking our political beliefs and I don’t see that switching overnight.
In a nation like Russia, that kind of political submission to the state was seemingly drilled into people during the Soviet Union (really, through much of recent Russian history). No one runs into the street to take cell‑phone video of Russian thug troops rounding up political foes. They know that if they speak up, they’ll be alone, isolated, and face a bad fate. But in the US, we get outside and document. We know the names of Alex Pretti and Renee Good.
And consider hypothetical war support: there’s no way the political ruling class would survive if the US got into a meat‑grinder war like Russia’s in Ukraine, with millions of casualties. Vietnam almost broke the country, and there were only 58k deaths (not to belittle the number, but Russia has suffered around 1.2m in military losses in just four years).
I think Jan 6 was a wake‑up call that it’s not a joke and not crazy to think they would attempt (and could succeed with) a coup here. I 100% think Trump and co. will try again to stage a coup or fix themselves in power, but I don’t yet believe they’ll succeed.
Good points I agree