Betting markets were even further off back then. I think the best takeaway here is that no one knows wtf is gonna happen but either way the working class will get screwed
I think there are trends we can observe to make an educated guess as to which way things will go. First thing to note is that the public is highly polarized at this point. The dems and repubs effectively have a different narrative of what the US should be. These are fundamentally incompatible with each other, and people subscribe to one or the other. That means there aren’t really any swing voters who will vote based on the specific issues or promises parties make this election. And in fact, we saw this to be the case in the past two elections already, the vote is split fairly evenly, but it’s pretty stable.
Really what it comes down to is which party will be able to mobilize its base more effectively to actually go out and vote for them. The dems managed to alienate a lot of people with doing genocide in Gaza, and a lot of the momentum they had in the last election has now fizzled. Most people are seeing their standard of living collapsing, and dems keep gaslighting them that the economy is doing great. I suspect there’s little support outside rich liberal circles at this point.
At the end of the day, I completely agree that the working class will get screwed since both parties ultimately represent the oligarchs.
Are they afraid of the polls? Apparently kamala is falling behind trump
yeah she’s way behind now https://polymarket.com/elections
Those are betting markets tho, how much more reliable are they than traditional polls that show it’s still neck at neck?
I think the betting markets are far more reliable than the traditional polls. I mean traditional polls predicted this back in 2016 https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
Betting markets were even further off back then. I think the best takeaway here is that no one knows wtf is gonna happen but either way the working class will get screwed
I think there are trends we can observe to make an educated guess as to which way things will go. First thing to note is that the public is highly polarized at this point. The dems and repubs effectively have a different narrative of what the US should be. These are fundamentally incompatible with each other, and people subscribe to one or the other. That means there aren’t really any swing voters who will vote based on the specific issues or promises parties make this election. And in fact, we saw this to be the case in the past two elections already, the vote is split fairly evenly, but it’s pretty stable.
Really what it comes down to is which party will be able to mobilize its base more effectively to actually go out and vote for them. The dems managed to alienate a lot of people with doing genocide in Gaza, and a lot of the momentum they had in the last election has now fizzled. Most people are seeing their standard of living collapsing, and dems keep gaslighting them that the economy is doing great. I suspect there’s little support outside rich liberal circles at this point.
At the end of the day, I completely agree that the working class will get screwed since both parties ultimately represent the oligarchs.
538 has it at 52 to 48 in favor of Trump.
The betting odds are 60-40 now.