The reason I emphasized so much about Biden and not just the US, is because Biden has proved himself to be far more ruthless than any of his predecessors. He has shown that he is willing to go far beyond what other American presidents had done. And quite honestly I don’t see a chance of Trump beating Biden so long as the economy keeps growing - I should say limping along, because the workers’ livelihoods are clearly not improving despite “Bidenomics”, but it is also not going to lead to recession.

The truly wild card here, as I mentioned above, is that the rate hikes have placed the US banking system on unprecedented risks. Biden got lucky with the SVB collapse earlier this year, and it seems to have been well mitigated, but who knows what will happen. There is no way anyone can predict when a banking collapse will happen, there are simply far too many complex factors at play here. But if a huge banking crisis occurs before the election, then Biden will be in trouble.