In a show of deepening ties, Taiwan opens its first Middle East working holiday program, inviting up to 200 Israelis annually to live, work and build lasting cultural connections in the East Asian nation
It’s hard to know how many missiles they actually have, but I would be shocked if China didn’t carefully track their launchers along with the ammo depots. The mainland can obviously send far more missiles back and destroy their strike capacity. Russia does this in Ukraine all the time.
Meanwhile, if the island is under blockade then the US trying to fly things in will be an act of war. Recall that Taiwan is officially part of China as recognized by the UN and the US itself. If China closes the airspace then the US would be violating Chinese sovereign space. I’m not saying the US wouldn’t do that, but at that point it’s a direct war with China for them. Also, the whole US strategy is predicated on China doing a ground invasion. Every naval battle the US simulated against China, they lost horribly.
Beyond military impotence, the US is in incredibly weak position economically vis-a-vis China. Just look at how the trade war is destroying the US economy right now. Imagine what happens if China explicitly cuts off exports to the US.
A coup is not that unlikely either, some retired military people in Taiwan have openly talked about it already.
The mainland can obviously send far more missiles back and destroy their strike capacity. Russia does this in Ukraine all the time.
These are not rational actors. Neither is Ukraine. Both are and would be in this scenario run by liberal fanatics/fascist fanatics willing to burn their nation to a cinder for the US. Ukraine is illustrative of this point not really mattering per se.
Meanwhile, if the island is under blockade then the US trying to fly things in will be an act of war.
And targeting Russia’s nuclear triad and hitting their bombers with obvious help from NATO intelligence isn’t? The point is the west thinks rules don’t apply to them and given Russia hasn’t hit MI:6 with an oreshnik yet they seem to be right. In that they can do whatever they want and if you hit them back directly as long as they have a cover THEY themselves believe in no matter how flimsy for their actions they will fly off the handle into a genocidal self-righteous indignant rage. Russia seems to know this, China probably does as well.
I’m not saying the US wouldn’t do that, but at that point it’s a direct war with China for them.
Only if China chooses to and given Russia keeps blinking they may think China will as well and that they can unilaterally escalate while their foes will avoid it, giving them the advantage.
Also, the whole US strategy is predicated on China doing a ground invasion. Every naval battle the US simulated against China, they lost horribly.
Is it? I saw a story of the head of JSOC talking of naval drones and basically mining the whole straits, turning into a zone China cannot cross and using that time to do whatever they want including landing forces. I don’t think the US plans to send in their carrier battlegroups and fight on China’s front door. They are not that stupid and even if they were good strategy would call for assuming they’re smarter than that as one should never underestimate one’s enemy. They have island chains and have been building naval drones in secret for some time now so they can do over the horizon type fighting. Their point like with Ukraine is to bleed China, not to triumphantly plant the US flag but to bleed them, to hurt them, to study them and learn their secrets, to demoralize them, to force it to take longer and be costlier and to make it a big spectacle they can use to rally the western world against China around as this big travesty and atrocity.
I maintain given the US advantage, given island chains not just around China but those policing west Asia, Africa, etc and NATO’s combined naval sizes plus all the land bases and air assets they have that most likely they want to bleed China in the SCS, use it to justify decoupling, sanctions and an embargo and blockade and carry out that blockade off the coast of Africa, Diego Garcia, in the various straits using the zionist entity in west Asia, etc, etc. To draw China out, to spread them out, to hit them with combined naval and air assets and use the superior logistics and amounts of bases NATO has. By doing this they cross out the major advantage China has in the SCS with land-based missiles and rocketry and fight from the high-ground.
Just look at how the trade war is destroying the US economy right now. Imagine what happens if China explicitly cuts off exports to the US.
Which is why they’re so desperate to decouple. The bribes didn’t work and were pocketed, Trump is very clumsily trying tariffs. But when it comes down to it they might think they can force decoupling with a conflict when all else has failed. Sure the consumer economy would implode but I’m not sure capitalists and empire planners wouldn’t consider that and forcing the proles to a much lower quality of life as they work to re-shore an acceptable if painful cost of survival and maintaining hegemony.
A coup is not that unlikely either, some retired military people in Taiwan have openly talked about it already.
I really hope that happens but I wouldn’t count on it. I’m sure the island is filled with US spies and trained dogs and any coup would face a counter-coup of ferocious proportions with support from US assets in Japan and possibly those US special forces already on the ground.
I just worry most about the nukes flying. I hope this conflict doesn’t start until China has a chance to massively expand their arsenal and proof it against Aegis and ground and orbital interceptors.
These are not rational actors. Neither is Ukraine. Both are and would be in this scenario run by liberal fanatics/fascist fanatics willing to burn their nation to a cinder for the US. Ukraine is illustrative of this point not really mattering per se.
The situation in Taiwan is clearly quite different from Ukraine, for example we just found out that DPP has been infiltrated at the highest levels. https://focustaiwan.tw/society/202506100009
The US backed puppets in Taiwan are hanging by a thread right now. There’s no fascist nationalist movement in Taiwan to exploit the way there was in Ukraine. Most people still see themselves as being Chinese, and every poll shows that vast majority of people want to maintain the status quo. The support for independence is practically nil. The military also appears to realize that a war with the mainland would be a disaster, and there’s a pretty high chance of a military coup if the government actually tried to move in that direction. The war in Ukraine is also obviously a psychological factor for Taiwan. It’s a clear illustration of what will happen to them, and that the US cannot save them.
My expectation is that KMT will likely get in power sooner than later, and they will make a deal with the mainland to repatriate. These are the last gasps of the US backed regime in Taiwan.
And targeting Russia’s nuclear triad and hitting their bombers with obvious help from NATO intelligence isn’t?
We have yet to see how Russia will respond to that. I know the west thinks they can do whatever they like, but eventually they will cross another red line like they did with Ukraine and it will result in major blowback. The war in Ukraine has been an unmitigated disaster for the west. It destroyed Europe economically, it effectively demilitarized NATO, it exposed lack of industrial capacity in the west, and it broke dollar hegemony on the world. The empire is far weaker today than it was three years ago.
Only if China chooses to and given Russia keeps blinking they may think China will as well and that they can unilaterally escalate while their foes will avoid it, giving them the advantage.
Russia is taking the rational approach in my opinion. They’re defeating NATO in Ukraine, but avoiding a wider escalation that would not be in Russia’s interest. The ultimate defeat for the west will be economic in nature. We’re already seeing the panic in Europe over having to vastly increase military spending, and at the same time we see growing political instability due to a collapse in the standard of living. This is not a sustainable situation. Meanwhile, the US isn’t doing much better, especially now that they’ve started an economic war with the whole world.
There’s no need for Russia to make a big attack on the west that might actually rally public opinion for an open war with Russia. It’s much better to just let the west implode economically and tear itself apart.
Is it? I saw a story of the head of JSOC talking of naval drones and basically mining the whole straits, turning into a zone China cannot cross and using that time to do whatever they want including landing forces.
As far as I know this is nothing more than a drug fueled fantasy.
They have island chains and have been building naval drones in secret for some time now so they can do over the horizon type fighting.
Given that the US can’t build much of anything, I have serious doubts they’ve built any significant amount of these naval drones, if any at all. The current rare earth export restrictions will certainly make sure they’re not building any more going forward.
Their point like with Ukraine is to bleed China, not to triumphantly plant the US flag but to bleed them, to hurt them, to study them and learn their secrets, to demoralize them, to force it to take longer and be costlier and to make it a big spectacle they can use to rally the western world against China around as this big travesty and atrocity.
I just don’t see how this works in practice. Anything the US can build, China can build more of. If naval drones become the major weapon, then China will simply be building hundreds to thousands more of these things for each one that the US can produce.
I really don’t see what this advantage you’re talking about is. It seems quite obvious to me that the opposite is the case. The supply chain situation is an operational nightmare for the US. They have to ship weapons half way across the world, while China produces them locally. In a war of attrition, which is what this would be, China has the exact same advantage as Russia.
Which is why they’re so desperate to decouple.
They understand their vulnerability, but they’re just manifesting. The reality is that there is no way for the US to reshore the industry at scale. The only way to do that would be by making a massive government run program the way they did during WW2, and there’s no political will to do something like that. Even if that was possible, it would still take decades to establish local supply chain, train workers, build factories, and so on. It’s a colossal project that can’t be willed into existence no matter how much they want to.
I just worry most about the nukes flying. I hope this conflict doesn’t start until China has a chance to massively expand their arsenal and proof it against Aegis and ground and orbital interceptors.
I imagine the current arsenal is already sufficient to devastate the US. The interceptors simply don’t work in practice. Even the whole golden dome idea is pure nonsense. https://youtu.be/D9Wzlqh7bIs
The US would not survive a nuclear war. However, the scary part is that US leadership might think that they will, and if they do start a nuclear war based on that assumption then we are all doomed. This is the only genuine worry I have about this whole thing.
It’s hard to know how many missiles they actually have, but I would be shocked if China didn’t carefully track their launchers along with the ammo depots. The mainland can obviously send far more missiles back and destroy their strike capacity. Russia does this in Ukraine all the time.
Meanwhile, if the island is under blockade then the US trying to fly things in will be an act of war. Recall that Taiwan is officially part of China as recognized by the UN and the US itself. If China closes the airspace then the US would be violating Chinese sovereign space. I’m not saying the US wouldn’t do that, but at that point it’s a direct war with China for them. Also, the whole US strategy is predicated on China doing a ground invasion. Every naval battle the US simulated against China, they lost horribly.
Beyond military impotence, the US is in incredibly weak position economically vis-a-vis China. Just look at how the trade war is destroying the US economy right now. Imagine what happens if China explicitly cuts off exports to the US.
A coup is not that unlikely either, some retired military people in Taiwan have openly talked about it already.
These are not rational actors. Neither is Ukraine. Both are and would be in this scenario run by liberal fanatics/fascist fanatics willing to burn their nation to a cinder for the US. Ukraine is illustrative of this point not really mattering per se.
And targeting Russia’s nuclear triad and hitting their bombers with obvious help from NATO intelligence isn’t? The point is the west thinks rules don’t apply to them and given Russia hasn’t hit MI:6 with an oreshnik yet they seem to be right. In that they can do whatever they want and if you hit them back directly as long as they have a cover THEY themselves believe in no matter how flimsy for their actions they will fly off the handle into a genocidal self-righteous indignant rage. Russia seems to know this, China probably does as well.
Only if China chooses to and given Russia keeps blinking they may think China will as well and that they can unilaterally escalate while their foes will avoid it, giving them the advantage.
Is it? I saw a story of the head of JSOC talking of naval drones and basically mining the whole straits, turning into a zone China cannot cross and using that time to do whatever they want including landing forces. I don’t think the US plans to send in their carrier battlegroups and fight on China’s front door. They are not that stupid and even if they were good strategy would call for assuming they’re smarter than that as one should never underestimate one’s enemy. They have island chains and have been building naval drones in secret for some time now so they can do over the horizon type fighting. Their point like with Ukraine is to bleed China, not to triumphantly plant the US flag but to bleed them, to hurt them, to study them and learn their secrets, to demoralize them, to force it to take longer and be costlier and to make it a big spectacle they can use to rally the western world against China around as this big travesty and atrocity.
I maintain given the US advantage, given island chains not just around China but those policing west Asia, Africa, etc and NATO’s combined naval sizes plus all the land bases and air assets they have that most likely they want to bleed China in the SCS, use it to justify decoupling, sanctions and an embargo and blockade and carry out that blockade off the coast of Africa, Diego Garcia, in the various straits using the zionist entity in west Asia, etc, etc. To draw China out, to spread them out, to hit them with combined naval and air assets and use the superior logistics and amounts of bases NATO has. By doing this they cross out the major advantage China has in the SCS with land-based missiles and rocketry and fight from the high-ground.
Which is why they’re so desperate to decouple. The bribes didn’t work and were pocketed, Trump is very clumsily trying tariffs. But when it comes down to it they might think they can force decoupling with a conflict when all else has failed. Sure the consumer economy would implode but I’m not sure capitalists and empire planners wouldn’t consider that and forcing the proles to a much lower quality of life as they work to re-shore an acceptable if painful cost of survival and maintaining hegemony.
I really hope that happens but I wouldn’t count on it. I’m sure the island is filled with US spies and trained dogs and any coup would face a counter-coup of ferocious proportions with support from US assets in Japan and possibly those US special forces already on the ground.
I just worry most about the nukes flying. I hope this conflict doesn’t start until China has a chance to massively expand their arsenal and proof it against Aegis and ground and orbital interceptors.
The situation in Taiwan is clearly quite different from Ukraine, for example we just found out that DPP has been infiltrated at the highest levels. https://focustaiwan.tw/society/202506100009
The US backed puppets in Taiwan are hanging by a thread right now. There’s no fascist nationalist movement in Taiwan to exploit the way there was in Ukraine. Most people still see themselves as being Chinese, and every poll shows that vast majority of people want to maintain the status quo. The support for independence is practically nil. The military also appears to realize that a war with the mainland would be a disaster, and there’s a pretty high chance of a military coup if the government actually tried to move in that direction. The war in Ukraine is also obviously a psychological factor for Taiwan. It’s a clear illustration of what will happen to them, and that the US cannot save them.
My expectation is that KMT will likely get in power sooner than later, and they will make a deal with the mainland to repatriate. These are the last gasps of the US backed regime in Taiwan.
We have yet to see how Russia will respond to that. I know the west thinks they can do whatever they like, but eventually they will cross another red line like they did with Ukraine and it will result in major blowback. The war in Ukraine has been an unmitigated disaster for the west. It destroyed Europe economically, it effectively demilitarized NATO, it exposed lack of industrial capacity in the west, and it broke dollar hegemony on the world. The empire is far weaker today than it was three years ago.
Russia is taking the rational approach in my opinion. They’re defeating NATO in Ukraine, but avoiding a wider escalation that would not be in Russia’s interest. The ultimate defeat for the west will be economic in nature. We’re already seeing the panic in Europe over having to vastly increase military spending, and at the same time we see growing political instability due to a collapse in the standard of living. This is not a sustainable situation. Meanwhile, the US isn’t doing much better, especially now that they’ve started an economic war with the whole world.
There’s no need for Russia to make a big attack on the west that might actually rally public opinion for an open war with Russia. It’s much better to just let the west implode economically and tear itself apart.
As far as I know this is nothing more than a drug fueled fantasy.
Given that the US can’t build much of anything, I have serious doubts they’ve built any significant amount of these naval drones, if any at all. The current rare earth export restrictions will certainly make sure they’re not building any more going forward.
I just don’t see how this works in practice. Anything the US can build, China can build more of. If naval drones become the major weapon, then China will simply be building hundreds to thousands more of these things for each one that the US can produce.
I really don’t see what this advantage you’re talking about is. It seems quite obvious to me that the opposite is the case. The supply chain situation is an operational nightmare for the US. They have to ship weapons half way across the world, while China produces them locally. In a war of attrition, which is what this would be, China has the exact same advantage as Russia.
They understand their vulnerability, but they’re just manifesting. The reality is that there is no way for the US to reshore the industry at scale. The only way to do that would be by making a massive government run program the way they did during WW2, and there’s no political will to do something like that. Even if that was possible, it would still take decades to establish local supply chain, train workers, build factories, and so on. It’s a colossal project that can’t be willed into existence no matter how much they want to.
I imagine the current arsenal is already sufficient to devastate the US. The interceptors simply don’t work in practice. Even the whole golden dome idea is pure nonsense. https://youtu.be/D9Wzlqh7bIs
The US would not survive a nuclear war. However, the scary part is that US leadership might think that they will, and if they do start a nuclear war based on that assumption then we are all doomed. This is the only genuine worry I have about this whole thing.
I found a YouTube link in your comment. Here are links to the same video on alternative frontends that protect your privacy: