Twenty years ago, we were speculating whether open source browsers would survive or catch on.
Now there aren’t any closed source browsers left.
Vendors will find other forms of lock in, anyway, of course.
But chrome, edge, and safari aren’t open source to my knowledge and they make up almost the entire market. Sure chromium is open source, but that’s not the entire browser. Not to mention, it’s basically Internet Explorer all over again, but with Google behind the reigns.
Looking at android, we get a glimpse of what Google is willing to do to “open source” to keep control.
I think 10% is very achievable within 5 years, driven by a few converging factors:
- Steam Deck effect — it’s normalizing Linux gaming in a way nothing else has. People who game on Deck start wondering “why not on my desktop too?”
- Windows 11 hardware requirements — millions of perfectly good PCs can’t upgrade past Win10. When support ends, Linux is the obvious path for those machines
- Corporate cost pressure — companies paying per-seat Windows licensing are looking at alternatives seriously, especially with web-based workflows
The biggest remaining barrier isn’t technical — it’s the ecosystem lock-in (Adobe, MS Office dependencies). But even that’s eroding with web apps replacing native ones.
Ever is an extremely long time.
Seeing as its the year of the Linux desktop, yes
I see China going way beyond those numbers, US not so much. Lenovo and ASUS are already front loading Linux, so if more makers follow suit, who knows.
Microslop is doing everything to promote Linux. So yes, I think 10% is possible.
Yes, as long as Windows will keep getting worse.
If you look at OS on steam its about 3%, but filtered for English, its 7% in that market.
Its kinda on its way there already in some markets.
It’s currently at 8.27% on the gamingonlinux tracker: https://www.gamingonlinux.com/steam-tracker/
In thw wikimedia stats, linux usage is around 5 to 6% and seems to be growing
I personally feel pretty confident we’re gonna hit 10% in the coming years. 20% could be doable but i feel like it might take a lot longer to get there. But depending on how badly microslop keeps fucking up, who knows lol.
Yes. Not because Linux PCs become so much more common, but because Windows PCs become much less common.
More and more people (normies) don’t own a desktop and only use tablets or phones. As the percentage of normies who own a desktop decreases, it will become more of just a nerd thing to have an actual desktop PC … and those kinds of people are much more likely to run Linux.
Agreed. PCs will wind up being for power users only, both due to cost and the decline in tech literacy.
But also, Nvidia is already salivating at the idea of people streaming games from what amounts to glorified chromebooks. Whether those are actually running a Google OS or a Microsoft one doesn’t ultimately matter - the point is that they will be locked into a walled garden with minimally-powerful hardware. Can such a device even really be considered a PC anymore?
the point is that they will be locked into a walled garden with minimally-powerful hardware. Can such a device even really be considered a PC anymore?
My main laptop is an ancient chromebook that I jailbroke and put Linux on.
While they’re locked down, I wouldn’t really consider them to be a PC. But if you can unlock them…
Yes. It’s already grown from ~1% to ~6% within the last couple of years. There are several major external factors at play: Valve helping to push gaming on Linux, the continued and increasingly big enshittification of Windows, and the current deranged US regime (resulting in less trust and less users of US-company-produced proprietary operating systems). Remember that Linux or the open source BSD variants are the only (usable/practical) operating systems you can use if you want to achieve digital sovereignty. Plus, it’s also getting even better over time by itself of course (that’s the internal factor).
it’s already grown from ~1% to ~6% within the last couple of years
Source?
The primary source being cited by most of the articles is U.S. Gov Analytics, (or the less reliable Statcounter, which I wouldn’t rely on.) U.S. Gov Analytics currently places it at around 4.7% over the last 30 days, 4.4% this calendar year, and 5.6% the last calendar year. It was about 6%-ish when most articles were written about the 6% number for the first time.
Steam, so basically just gamers and not regular desktop users, has it more around 2.3%.
That US site’s data includes both mobile and desktop. With a bit of math, you get Linux’s desktop marketshare over 30 days as 7,1%.
Steam’s February data is heavily influenced by Chinese new year. If you only consider Linux Steam users who have set English as their Steam language, Linux’s marketshare is 8,28%.
Literally anywhere on Google. But it also makes sense when you think about ChromeOS & non-us aligned countries - what else are they gonna use?
My bet is that Linux will get 10% Steam market share by the end of this year, at most.
Yes I do, it seems to me Linux is beginning to grow a bit faster than it used to.
Desktop use is of course declining, so it will be a larger share of a smaller market.
But enthusiasts have seen Linux as the better options for decades now, and gamers are coming over too, and use cases that require optimal security, and even some workstation tasks are done better on Linux because Linux has a superior kernel for multi threading.But it will take some time, probably at least 10 years.
For the education sector and software developer sector these numbers are already met and well exceeded. For the consumer desktop, yes, I think so. I think some big company other than Valve and Google will sell a Linux desktop machine, be it x86 or ARM. When most of the stuff consumers use is through the browser, OEMs clinging to Windows is not going to last forever.
Dell already offers some models with Ubuntu on them.
And Lenovo, I saved $100 and the time to setup Ubuntu on my Thinkpad. But I’m picturing something that is Linux only and a major release like a Chromebook or the Steam Deck were/are.
ideally, all devices should be open to choose any OS.
and afaik steam deck is not linux-only
I mean only Linux as the product is released with only Linux offered by the company, as in not a choice between Windows and Linux. Linux first by design.
With Windows 12 rumoured to be a subscription model, yes definitely. Enterprise will buy up the subscriptions, home users will look elsewhere. Apple will take its share of course, their products are too pricey for a lot of people though. Linux is the only real option for folks who value owning their data.
The Windows 12 rumors were due to bad reporting from PC World that it seems AI news articles ran with (I believe an Ai mistranslation was the original issue, but at the very least a translation issue). They added an editor’s note to the original [article] (https://www.pcworld.com/article/3068331/windows-12-rumors-features-pricing-everything-we-know-so-far.html)
Apple’s stuff isn’t really that pricey though. My brother recently bought a base model Mac Mini M4 that I’ve been able to play with. It’s fantastic. The new MacBook Neo looks similarly great for the same price. More than capable of daily use for the vast majority of computer users.
