Rationalist check-list:
- Incorrect use of analogy? Check.
- Pseudoscientific nonsense used to make your point seem more profound? Check.
- Tortured use of probability estimates? Check.
- Over-long description of a point that could just have easily been made in 1 sentence? Check.
This email by SBF is basically one big malapropism.
Unhinged is another suitable adjective.
It’s noteworthy that how the operations plan seems to boil down to “follow you guts” and “trust the vibes”, above “Communicating Well” or even “fact-based” and “discussion-based problem solving”. It’s all very don’t think about it, let’s all be friends and serve the company like obedient drones.
This reliance on instincts, or the esthetics of relying on instincts, is a disturbing aspect of Rats in general.
Well they are the most rational people on the planet. Bayesian thinking suggests that their own gut feelings are more likely to be correct than not, obviously.