So we all agree that Russia is beating Ukraine and is much stronger than the west realizes. But I want to look to the far future. After the west is gone, what then? Russia is capitalist, but it cannot occupy the vacant hegemonic position, China’s already there. But if Russia really is powerful and has access to advanced tech and weaponry, do you think socialist revolution there would be possible? It’s late where I am, I’m just thinking about what will happen when there’s no one left for Russia to be necessarily anti-imperialist against and the main contradiction is resolved.
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US is a hegemon because it occupied the power vacuum that arose out of the devestation of WWII. Unless there is a similar occurance of even greater magnitude there isn’t going to be a new hegemon of the sort the US is today.
Of course, that’s not what I meant. And I know Russia lacks the means to go around building bases all over the world like the US did or something
There are a couple of things that go against it, the fact that the counter revolutionary ideology caught on deeply in Russia, so the revolutionary forces there are not in good shape, there is the fact that the war staying as a success will bolster the status quo as successful, and further more the way the advanced weaponry affects the chance of revolution today is a lot more complicated, because the bourgeois state control a lot of surveillance and unmanned fire power makes staging a revolution a lot trickier. So I would not think a revolution is looking likely there, but it’s not impossible basically anywhere given the correct steps, is just a matter of how many are already done at any given time, and in Russia I see the need of many steps and I see few taken
And on a side note, I’m not fully convinced the west didn’t realize how powerful Russia was militarily, they act surprised, but I would wager they had an idea about it and that war us both a way to stress a bit their firepower, prevent them from helping others such as Iran or Venezuela with supplies, and probe for more information about that firepower
Class contradiction will move up the primacy ladder.
The Russian bourgeoisie learned from the past and hell will they do to allow anything revolutionary. The west won’t be gone should the war end in Russia’s favour. What Russia wants is the status quo back before the NATO expansion; meaning their influence sphere after the dissolution of the Soviet Union. Russia does also a great thing to spread lies about the October Revolution. If Russia has advanced tech and weaponry, then you have bourgeois State with advanced tech and weaponry - a revolution did happened once despite being such a underdeveloped country compared to Britain and Germany.
The main focus is the class struggle in Russia, at which level it is and how organised is the proletariat. And most importantly how much the Russian working class is united with the working class in Ukraine. Russia’s win would be a huge blow against NATO and yankee imperialism. If the west is “gone”, then you should rather question about the situation of the proletariat in the west. However being “gone” is more complex, because imperialism means, that the world is being divided again and again. As long capitalism is there, imperialism will be there too. Some would have take place. Each national bourgeoisie, which has to be fought, has its own ambitions. They also contradict with each other in the west. The west at it is being gone is a premise which rather produces way more questions. And who says that the western countries don’t realise how to situation in Ukraine is? Of course their media will mostly report about bad things happened on the Russian side, but that’s all. The bourgeois is not naive.
