El señor

The budding 2026-27 El Nino, lower right of Fig.2, is compared with the other strong El Ninos (1982-83, 1997-98, 2015-16) in the period with good upper ocean data. We need several more months of data to assess how strong the current El Nino is relative to the other strong El Ninos, but it will be difficult for it to match the strength of the 1997-98 El Nino. The current El Nino seems to be emerging from a warmer western Pacific Ocean. The tropical ocean mixed layer is much thinner than 300 m, yet is it possible that accelerated global warming in the past decade and tropical storms have warmed the upper 300 m in the Western Pacific? Is the rapid return of El Nino, just 3 years after the 2023-24 El Nino, related to increased warmth in the Western Pacific?