After months of fierce conflict in Myanmar’s northeast, the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA)—one of the country’s major ethnic armed groups—has agreed to a ceasefire with the military government. The deal, brokered by China during talks in Kunming on October 27 and 28, 2025, marks a pivotal moment in the ongoing civil war, which has raged since the military’s 2021 coup.
According to AP and The Irrawaddy, the ceasefire comes after intense pressure from Beijing, which has long held deep economic and strategic interests in Myanmar. China’s mediation reflects growing concerns over instability along its border with Myanmar, especially as fighting spilled into areas critical to cross-border trade. The talks were held in Kunming, a provincial capital about 400 kilometers from the Myanmar border, underscoring the proximity of the conflict to Chinese territory.
The ceasefire comes at a crucial juncture for Myanmar’s military government, which is preparing to hold elections in two phases on December 28, 2025, and January 11, 2026. Critics, as reported by AP, argue that the polls are designed to legitimize and entrench military rule, particularly as the main opposition parties remain excluded from the process. The deal with the TNLA allows the military to stabilize large swaths of Shan State ahead of voting, reducing the threat of disruption from ethnic armed groups.
I wonder if China will actually be able to wrap up this civil war. Their involvement here is so fucking weird and complicated. They support the junta, but they also support the strongest and most influential of all the rebel factions, the United Wa State, which really does function as its own well-developed state yet does not seek independence. What does China want out of elections? Do they simply not care as long as the war and its attendant chaos ends?
edit: reading more it seems like the UWSA is not very antagonistic with the junta, so wtf do I know
It feels like China is just supporting whichever side comes out on top. It’s not exactly helping the Sinophobic sentiments I’ve heard here in the country.
I do think Russia’s support of the junta might have something to do with it. China probably doesn’t want to antagonize them or something, but hell if I know what the actual reasons are.
