If you squint, an invasion seems inevitable. But look closer at the actual state of each force being cited, and a very different picture emerges. How is it possible, for instance, that every news organization from the New York Times on down, can report three ships leaving Japan with the Tripoli group when there were only two? Secrecy. Sloppiness. Sops.
With Trump in charge, one never knows. But even if there were a ground operation against Kharg Island, it would most likely involve Army Rangers and special operations forces, Green Berets and Navy SEALs — not some conventional ground assault à la Normandy. The idea of the U.S. Marines storming the beaches while the 82nd Airborne drops on parachutes from above is a cable news fever dream.
There is no way the US could actually invade Kharg. It’s 700km up the Persian Gulf from the Straight and any invasion fleet will get peppered by missiles and drones the whole way there. The US can’t even replace any lost destroyers but think they can match the USS Tripoli down the entire Iranian coast? And then what? 2000 soldiers are stranded on a large rock without any support just getting shelled by short range missiles and drones.
https://open.substack.com/pub/kenklippenstein/p/is-a-ground-war-with-iran-imminent
There is no way the US could actually invade Kharg. It’s 700km up the Persian Gulf from the Straight and any invasion fleet will get peppered by missiles and drones the whole way there. The US can’t even replace any lost destroyers but think they can match the USS Tripoli down the entire Iranian coast? And then what? 2000 soldiers are stranded on a large rock without any support just getting shelled by short range missiles and drones.