The statistician remarked that we are back on track for a tossup election.
  • Zerlyna@lemmy.worldEnglish
    211·
    5 hours ago

    I keep trying to reframe it to people that I am happy to spend an extra $2 on a tank of gas if it means not having a convicted rapist who sows division and hate as a role model for my 12 year old niece.

    And then add in that I’m an international buyer and can confirm EVERYONE globally is paying more since COVID. And tariffs ARE passed on to the consumer.

    I’ve slowed down my own postings and now responding to my conservative friends political posts, hoping it gets to more of those people.

    • cheeseandrice@lemm.ee
      121·
      5 hours ago

      Sorry to focus on this point but gas is subject to a fairly fluid global market. I’ve been driving a car since Clinton and have never noticed Republicans being better for gas prices or the price of anything, if anything it’s the opposite.

        • mkwt@lemmy.world
          21·
          3 hours ago

          The President can do a lot of macro things that affect oil supply, like exercising some control over leases in public land, choosing to regulate or deregulate fracking, or invading a foreign country to obtain more oil.

          In a more micro scale the President has fairly direct control over the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, and can decide when to release and when to replenish.

    • Ranvier@sopuli.xyz
      291·
      5 hours ago

      So the model image you posted above there says it’s more likely that Trump wins the election than it is flipping two heads in a row while flipping a coin. This is saying it’s less likely for Trump to win than Hillary to win, but something that could fairly easily happen still. These aren’t poll numbers, where 70-30 would be a massive blow out. This is a 30% chance of winning for Trump, closer to a coin flip than a sure thing.

      A lot of other models were saying something ridiculous like Clinton had 95% chance to win or something. Nate Silver’s model seems better than others based on this, if anything.

      • commandar@lemmy.world
        27·
        4 hours ago

        A lot of other models were saying something ridiculous like Clinton had 95% chance to win or something. Nate Silver’s model seems better than others based on this, if anything.

        The constant attacks on how 538’s model performed in 2016 says more about statistics literacy than it does about the model.

        There is plenty to criticize Nate Silver for. Take your pick. Personally, the political nihilism that’s increasingly flirted with “anti-woke” sentiment is good enough for me. Some people might prefer taking issue with the degenerate gambling. The guy has pumped out plenty of really dumb hot takes over the years, so you have your options.

        But his models, historically, have performed relatively well if you understand that they’re models and not absolute predictors.

        • shalafi@lemmy.worldEnglish
          101·
          4 hours ago

          People forget that Clinton lost because of Comey’s October revelation that the FBI was reopening the investigation into her emails.

          • Ensign_Crab@lemmy.worldEnglish
            5·
            4 hours ago

            I was assured for a solid 7 years that it was solely the fault of everyone who was even the slightest bit disappointed about the primaries.

        • takeda@lemmy.world
          2·
          4 hours ago

          Looking at the historical election wins where president with lower popular vote won, trump clearly is outlier and either had outrageous luck (I doubt it) or help to push things just enough to get enough EC votes.

          Of course this help, that he got in 2016 he still is getting right now so we should still assume odds will be in his favor and make won’t get suspended and vote (the more people vote, the harder is to artificially affect the results).

      • mkwt@lemmy.world
        3·
        3 hours ago

        I think Silver. Nate left FiveThirtyEight and now the site doesn’t even publish any kind of predictive model.

          • realcaseyrollinsOPEnglish
            2·
            3 hours ago

            I think it’s more than ABC News fired Nate and most people involved with FiveThirtyEight. Happened awhile ago, at least a year or two ago.

            • ccunning@lemmy.world
              1·
              2 hours ago

              I looked it up. Looks like he were with 538 from 2008-2023.

              So to answer your original question, “It’s from 538 while Nate was still there” but I couldn’t say how directly involved he was with the models that backed this image from 2016. My assumption is that he would have been fairly deeply involved in the models though.

  • BrianTheeBiscuiteer@lemmy.world
    4·
    4 hours ago

    I have full confidence she’ll win the votes necessary. I have less confidence in GOP and MAGA operatives not pulling out all the stops to ensure Trump wins on a technicality. They WILL attempt a steal!

    • realcaseyrollinsOPEnglish
      23·
      4 hours ago

      If Trump wins, would you accept the results of the presidential election?

      • Awesomo85@sh.itjust.works
        17·
        3 hours ago

        No. Per their post, they already have it in their mind that he will “steal” it, so even if it was an absolute landslide and there was no funny business to be heard of, he cheated.

        Now That’s What I Call Democracy™!!! Vol. 47

        You see, there is only ever fraud if your candidate loses.

        P.S. I will not be voting for Trump in the coming election. I just know you will dismiss me as a “MAGAt Ultra Trumpetearista” or whatever other name is popular now for it.

        • BrianTheeBiscuiteer@lemmy.world
          31·
          3 hours ago

          I said they’ll attempt a steal. Doesn’t mean they’ll be successful or they wouldn’t win without it. And I will accept the result in that I’m not going to storm Congress over it.

    • RoidingOldMan@lemmy.world
      11·
      5 hours ago

      This bot shouldn’t be able to call itself a “fact checker” when it doesn’t check any facts from the articles it replies to. It just spams its own bias opinion about what bias the website has in general.

      You are a spam bot. Lemmy would be better off without you.

      • Nawor3565@lemmy.blahaj.zoneEnglish
        3·
        5 hours ago

        Just so you know, Lemmy has an option in every person’s account to hide posts and comments from bot accounts (“bot” in this context meaning accounts that have voluntarily tagged themselves as bots, which is the case for the one you replied to.)