Nah, you can’t time the market. If you can afford to ride it out, try it. It might be a rough several years.
If you pull out now, and Trump reverses everything and the market rallies, you’ll miss the train.
If the stock market completely collapses, the value of the dollar will too.
That said, you could pull all your investments and buy guns and ammo instead.
Note: pay zero attention to me I have never made a successful stock gamble, despite attempts.
Something that I feel isn’t broadcast enough, is that every market transaction inevitably has a winner and loser. Small investors are inherently more likely to lose since we can’t shape the market or control the media. The stock market functionally acts as a siphon to move money from the workers to the capitalist class–the more you play, the more opportunities to lose you’re providing yourself.
Exactly. For middle class folks who still have to rely on the stock market for retirement, the best option is to just buy dumb index funds and hold them til retirement. You aren’t going to be able to outsmart and out time the actual Wall Street traders who have PhDs in mathematics, access to microsecond trading, and a trading bankroll of billions. If you need to rely on the market, buy and hold is the only sane strategy. At least then you minimize the number of trades you make and the chances for the snakes to screw you over.
Time in the market beats timing the market
If you want real investment advice: no. If you’re investing for retirement, and you’re not near retirement age, you have decades ahead of you before you need these funds. You know those people who “lost everything” in the 2008 recession? Sure, some people lost their jobs and were forced to burn their retirement savings just to keep the lights on. But far more lost money because they sold when the market was in the toilet. The market did eventually recover, but the timing of the recovery couldn’t be predicted in advance, so they lost out on much of the recovery. The market went back up, but they still had their 401k sitting in cash. They lost money on the dip, and then they lost money again on the upswing.
Also, keep in mind that Trump’s policies mean that cash savings will be far more vulnerable in this crash than in the 2008 crash. At least in 2008, the inflation rate was basically zero. Cash didn’t lose much value just sitting in your savings account. But Trump is trying to weaken the dollar to make imports more expensive and US exports more appealing to foreign consumers. And Trump’s policies are expected to be rather inflationary. Cash is no safe haven right now. You could try to move your assets to foreign currencies and companies, but this crash is global. The US set itself up as the linchpin of the global economy after WW2. If the US stumbles, everyone stumbles. The only country that won’t be hurt much by this crash will be North Korea. But there really aren’t that many investment opportunities for foreigners in the hermit kingdom.
It sucks, but at this point you should just ride it out. If you still have decades till retirement, just ignore your retirement balance for the next few years. Just ride it out and remember that you’re investing not for today, but for decades in the future. Or consider the parable of Bob, the world’s most unlucky investor.
Stock market always goes up unless capitalism is ending. Just don’t die
i feel like its too late to pull out at this point you shouldve pulled out as soon as trump started threatening tariffs back in jan-feb
I’m throwing as much as I can in mutuals right now while the market’s still cheap. The market will probably go up again in the next decade. The next few years are going to be volatile though.
The few patches of green be like:
TAKE EVERYTHING AND INVEST IN FOOT
I’ve been investing all my money in that for years already!
I guess if your money goes to shit then the market is in much deeper doodoo than a few paper dollars will save
Be like the Chinese and think in centuries
So invest in gold, guns, internationally and in food stocks (that is actual bulk food because it’s gonna get a lot more expensive)
food prices have been dropping over the last couple years internationally due to higher production in global south as it mechanizes agriculture with Chinese heavy equipment. not in the USA though
Wish I’d done it in January
I try to never ever ever ever think like that. I believe there are only two feelings that a stock market is capable of producing. You can either go “omg why was I so bearish? Obviously this was going to blow up. All the signs were there. I should have bet the house!” or “How could I have been so bullish? I shouldn’t have put one bloody damn cent into that ponzi scheme. I’m such a fool.” I don’t believe there is such a thing as being satisfied with your choice of investment. The people who are often making life changing money are people with 100x that much money to begin with - I think a societally agreed upon mortal who invests and makes life changing money has succeeded the same way they might have succeeded in a casino.
Yeah, or had insider information. It’s difficult to maintain that perspective.
Just blame your parents for birthing you into a poor family, like I do.
Then it’s not your fault.
Can I ask why you’re in mutual funds?
I’m not too knowledgeable about all the passive long term investment options out there but afaik, there are only a few options that make sense depending on what you want:
SPY ETFs (or maybe some other broad American market ETF like QQQ) with low expense ratios and high volume since you can trade them intraday vs mutual funds where you can only trade them interday. I also believe you get taxed on dividends on mutual funds even if you don’t sell? Whack
High interest/yield savings accounts for guaranteed low risk returns
Money market funds (can be better than savings account for potential tax savings due to certain states tax rules and government obligations)
i dunno why, my aunt put me into it instead of just leting my money sit in the bank
Buy the redchips listed on the hong kong exchange. Or buy ADRs of the red chips. Fuck America, it is toast.
