My weekly preamble is in spoiler tags below.
preamble
It’s once again been a relatively slow week, with “only” quite a few oil tankers being struck in the US’s attempt at an oil corridor in Hormuz. I’ve seen several analysts speculate on just how leaky Hormuz might be despite Iran’s attacks, and if it is leaky, then why and to what extent. Now that we’re firmly in August, we have noticeably passed the predicted July ETAs on the physical oil cliff (the paper oil price manipulations notwithstanding), and so analysts are trying to find explanations for the current situation, in which various factors are being considered, of which I’ll list a few I’ve seen personally.
First is, as I said, a potentially leaky Hormuz, because it’s been revealed that in lieu of official corporate insurance, the US is directly paying captains massive sums of money if they’re brave enough to try and run the strait under US air cover - hence why Iran keeps hitting tankers practically daily without them ever seeming to get the message. Obviously, this covert operation by itself would not be enough to even approach pre-war transit levels, and so there must be other factors going on. Second is Red Sea oil redirections predominantly by Saudi Arabia; if this was a big factor, it’s something Ansarallah is now actively combatting with their blockade of the Bab el-Mandab and semi-regular strikes on their pipeline infrastructure. Third is that perhaps world oil reserves are somewhat larger than first considered, especially given China deciding to go on a bit of an oil diet over the last six months, and especially especially if countries really start pumping from one-shot emergency supplies; e.g. there’s been much discussion by Naked Capitalism about just how much the US could extract from the rapidly dwindling SPR if it no longer cared about the irreversible damage to the storage caverns caused by pumping out as much as physically possible. Fourth and finally, perhaps the data on stockpiles was just bad in such as way that they were being consistently underestimated by e.g. 10% or so. Ultimately, regardless of the many complicated factors involved here, the antsy and indecisive behaviour of the US, as well as some anxiety about the midterms, betrays any attempts at American confidence (e.g. by Bessent) about this becoming a stable situation for even the medium term.
We’ve also seen some of the fruits of the serious discussions between Iran and Oman over how exactly Hormuz is going to be governed, with one major and intriguing proposal being that Iran could have total control over what vessels enter (i.e. tolling when entering), and Oman has partial control over what vessels leave, with Iran having a veto there too (i.e. no tolling when exiting, but de jure Iranian military control). Iran has come out and said that regardless of what they agree to with Oman, the US will have to make major concessions - at least on the order of the MoU concessions and perhaps even beyond them - for Hormuz shipping to restart. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkiye have signed some kind of military alliance or agreement of some kind; I’m waiting for some big expert analyses on the many implications before I give any takes here, but it’s already been dealt a rather large embarrassment by Ansarallah seeming to not really a give a shit, continuing strikes on both Saudi pipeline infrastructure and also Saudi-backed mercenaries.
And finally, over in Latin America, the Southern Spear Joint Task Force has given way to a new version which looks likely to increase inland strikes, which is a major escalation from the strikes targeting mainly fishing boats, which were presumably done to a) cause socioeconomic fractures in certain countries (largely Venezuela), and b) further the kayfabe that the US is trying to stop drugs entering the US while obviously covertly further amplifying it through friendly comprador countries. While Latin America struggles to find its way forward out of American regional hegemony due to the rather mixed results of both electoralism and warfare (guerrilla and otherwise), what greatly interests me will be how the region’s domestic capitalists respond to the attempts by the US to wean them off from China’s growing economic sphere. I’ve wondered previously about whether a potential way out of imperium, in lieu of the ability of the region’s working class to take (and, more critically, hold on to) power, will be China, intentionally or not, causing major fractures between the US capitalists seeking a monopoly to loot the continent as much as possible with the absolute minimum domestic development possible to maintain profits, and domestic capitalists who want to trade with an ever-growing China and internally develop their countries for their own self-benefit.
Last week’s thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.
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The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.
The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on the Zionists’ destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don’t want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it’s just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists’ side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR’s former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR’s forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster’s telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a ‘propaganda tax’, if you don’t believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
Navy Carrier’s Problems Are Tied to Attacks on U.S. Base Early in War
Diego Garcia, a tiny island 2,200 miles from the Gulf of Oman, took over as the Navy’s logistics hub after Iran damaged a base in Bahrain.
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The aircraft carrier U.S.S. Abraham Lincoln’s supply problems began soon after the first day of the war, as Iranian missiles and attack drones fell on a Navy base in Bahrain. The Iranian attack, retaliation for the U.S.-Israeli assault on Tehran, destroyed much of the base. And as it went up in smoke, so did a major logistics hub that the Navy has relied on for decades. The Navy needed a Plan B to continue feeding the sailors working around the clock to keep warplanes flying strike missions, and later to maintain a blockade of Iran’s ports. With the threat of Iranian attacks at other ports in the region, the Pentagon looked to a base under British command on the island of Diego Garcia as its supply hub, which is south of the Maldives and roughly 2,200 miles from where two aircraft carrier strike groups have been operating in the Gulf of Oman. The loss of the hub in Bahrain has contributed to a host of reported problems on carriers supporting operations against Iran, as Democratic senators raise concerns about the Lincoln’s 5,000 sailors and their nearly nine-month deployment.
Senator Richard Blumenthal, Democrat of Connecticut, said in a letter to Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth that the reported problems included shortages of basic supplies and the deteriorating mental health of its crew members. On Friday at a military air base in Maryland, Mr. Trump dismissed those concerns. “That ship is moving right now, or very shortly, and it’s being replaced with another, very similar, ship,” he said. The Lincoln’s replacement is the Japan-based carrier U.S.S. George Washington, which earlier this week was heading west through the Strait of Malacca in Indonesian waters en route to the Middle East. Another carrier, the U.S.S. George H.W. Bush, has been operating in the Middle East for months since deploying from Norfolk on March 31. When asked if the carrier deployments were too long, the president said, “No, no, no, not nearly long enough.”
Mr. Hegseth had a similar response on Thursday when a reporter asked how long the United States could maintain its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. “We can hold it as long as we need to, indefinitely,” he replied.
guy who runs out of steam in 10 seconds of fighting: “no dude I could totally keep bobbing and weaving around here all day”
At the war’s outset, Keir Starmer, then the British prime minister, denied the Pentagon access to Diego Garcia for use in the operation against Iran. That decision drew Mr. Trump’s ire, and Mr. Starmer ultimately relented on March 1, granting the U.S. military access to the island for what he described as a “specific and limited defensive purpose.”
imagine how quickly the US empire would basically disintegrate if any of these vassal fucks grew a spineA U.S. military official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive logistics, said the Navy began using Diego Garcia as the main shipment point shortly after the Navy’s base in Bahrain was heavily damaged. The use of Diego Garcia as the Navy’s new logistics hub may explain why Iran fired two medium-range ballistic missiles at the island on March 20. One of the missiles fell into the Indian Ocean short of its target. A Navy warship shot down the other.
The San Diego-based Lincoln has been at sea for nearly nine months without what the Navy calls a “liberty port” — where sailors can get off the ship for a few days. Bahrain is one of the two ports where U.S. aircraft carriers in the region have typically moored so their crews can get some downtime. The other, the Emirati port of Fujairah on the Gulf of Oman, is also well within the range of Iranian missiles.
whoopsie!

The Trump administration relied on yet another carrier, the U.S.S. Gerald R. Ford, in the Caribbean for its pressure campaign against Venezuela and later extended its deployment to the Middle East to launch airstrikes against Iran. So far the war has seen the commitment of a significant portion of the Navy’s fleet of aircraft carriers, which will go down to 10 with the expected retirement of U.S.S. Nimitz next year. While six months is the typical length of a Navy deployment at sea in peacetime, some carriers have done far longer stretches following the Sept. 11 attacks.
The Ford’s 326-day deployment, however, broke the record for the longest by a carrier since the Vietnam War. But in that war, carriers assigned to Yankee Station, a section of the Pacific off the coast of Vietnam, would often head to the Navy base at Subic Bay, Philippines — a short two-day transit away — where sailors could take a break from running nonstop flight operations and the ship could load up on ordnance, food, fuel and other necessary supplies. By tradition and Navy regulation, the commanding officer of a warship can request a “beer day” for their crews when they have been at sea for 45 straight days or longer. Given the Lincoln’s time at sea, the crew would have been eligible for five beer days already. A spokesman for the U.S. Fifth Fleet, which covers naval operations in region and would authorize beer days, did not immediately respond to a request for comment on Friday about whether any of the ships participating in the Iran war had requested them. In an interview, Representative Mike Levin, Democrat of California, said that his constituents included sailors aboard the Lincoln, and that their family members had reached out to express their concerns about the deployment. “It gets back to that big picture, which is: What is the mission here?” Mr. Levin said. “That’s what the families want to know.”
say it with me
DE-BA-SI-FI-CA-TI-ON 
Today the Canadian government announced new sanctions against 5 senior Iranian officials for “their role in preventing the free flow of goods through the strait of Hormuz” - https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-new-sanctions-iranians-strait-of-hormuz-9.7307555
Canadians want no concessions to Trump - https://www.thestar.com/opinion/star-columnists/a-clear-message-for-carney-canadians-will-not-tolerate-any-more-concessions-to-trump/article_c1465d39-bb90-4cae-a06e-cb414e83b147.html
Earlier cbc reporting said the feds were telling the provinces to get ready to stock American liquor again.
Carney is doing what all conservatives in Canada and bankers do best - licking the boots of America 🔥🇨🇦🔥Just trying to be the “pick me” of the evil empire.
As if Canada has nothing better to do than sanction members of the IRGC.
I love how Trump doesn’t even pretend to give enough of a shit to call the ships by name.
CBS News - Trump says USS Abraham Lincoln’s deployment “not nearly long enough.” President Trump dismissed concerns Friday about the USS Abraham Lincoln, which has been deployed for almost nine months, most recently in the Middle East. Asked by a reporter if the aircraft carrier’s deployment has lasted too long, Mr. Trump said it hasn’t.
“Not nearly long enough,” the president said at Joint Base Andrews before heading to New York. When the reporter told Mr. Trump that family members of U.S. service members are concerned about conditions on the ship, the president said, “No, they’re not.” The president also noted that the ship was in the process of being relieved. “That ship is moving right now, or very shortly, and it’s being replaced with another very similar ship,” he said.
Russian Defense Minister Andrey Belousov congratulated the Korean people on the 81st anniversary of Korea’s liberation from Japanese occupation:
“I congratulate you on the 81st anniversary of the liberation of Korea from Japanese occupation. The Korean working people, having shown fortitude, courage and indomitable will, under the leadership of Comrade Kim Il Sung, drove the Japanese invaders from their native land. The victory in the struggle for Korean independence made a significant contribution to the end of World War II. Our common successes on the battlefields laid a solid foundation for a strategic partnership,” he said at the reception on the occasion of liberation of Korea from Japanese occupation.
171 downed aircraft, 10 maned. This is just air defence hits, it does not include those blown up in hangars. https://t.me/RezistanceTrench1/69829
This week OpenAI did another round of allowing employees to sell shares to outside investors, about ~$7 billion in total. Usually these shares would be bought by SoftBank or someone else who wants to increase their share in OpenAI. But it turns out this time aren’t selling to outside investors, instead OpenAI is spending its own money!! Coincidentally, 9 of their top leaders left the company a few days later. Looks like a golden parachute to keep quiet before the IPO (IPO is expected early next year). They are on average losing about $2 billion per month.
🇪🇸 ISIS has intensified its Spanish-language propaganda and issued new threats against Spain.
The terror group is circulating videos, audio recordings and messages aimed at radicalising Spanish-speaking audiences in Spain and Latin America.
https://theobjective.com/espana/2026-08-12/daesh-propaganda-yihadista-castellano-amenazas-espana/
very interesting how ISIS inmediatly starting speaking spanish and goes against spain the moment they start speaking against israel

13m Youtube vid
Diesel Prices Through The Roof While Oil Sits At 80. Here’s Why. | Mr Global
Refined fuel products are the crisis now, not oil prices.
I loved-hated the vid. The refined products stuff is all new to me and it was great plus the vid is informative in general but he clearly riffed the entire thing. If he storyboarded with some very helfpful infographics - the vid might be great and it could be ~5m or less. But that can’t be monetized. Oh, well!
Edit. “Nobody escapes the price of diesel” - because it’s a fundamental part of the supply chain.
Luigi Mangione admits killing healthcare boss as victim’s family condemn ‘heinous act’
Luigi pleads guilty on federal charges
The man charged with gunning down UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson on a New York City street two years ago pleaded guilty to federal stalking charges in Manhattan on Friday as Thompson’s family looked on.
Luigi Mangione, 28, revealed for the first time through his allocution to the court that he posed as a potential investor and emailed the insurance giant to confirm the location of the investors conference so he could track Thompson’s location.
“I emailed UnitedHealthcare with the intent to shoot Brian Thompson,” Mangione said in his statement. “On the morning of Dec. 4, 2024 I shot Mr. Thompson in Manhattan in his back.”
The admitted gunman said he “understood my actions would place [Thompson] in fear of death and bodily injury” and that he “knew what I was doing was illegal.”
Mangione also told the judge that he was driven to kill Thompson because of his experience with the healthcare system as a patient with a back injury.
restish of the article written by a company who gets paid by the industrial health complex
Thompson’s family issued a rare public statement
I’m not writing / pasting their boo hoo drivel…Mangione faces a maximum sentence of life in prison and prosecutors suggested that his sentencing range under federal guidelines would be 24 to 30 years in prison. Prosecutors later clarified that they would be recommending life in prison, the steepest sentence available.
He will be sentenced at a separate hearing Dec. 18 and the final sentence will be determined by the judge who has full discretion.
His federal court guilty plea is expected to kick off a double jeopardy fight in state court where he still faces murder charges and the possibility of life in prison. Mangione’s defense is expected to argue that the cases cover the same alleged conduct and that proceeding with a state court trial would amount to a legal violation.
Following the guilty plea, Mangione’s lawyer Karen Friedman Agnifilo said, “We just filed our motion in state court explaining why the state charges must be dismissed under New York’s double jeopardy protections.”
She also discussed Mangione’s rationale.
“As Luigi explained in court today, he endured years of severe debilitating pain following a broken back while struggling to navigate our healthcare and health insurance systems,” Friedman Agnifilo said.
“He believed that the system had failed him and destroyed his life,” the attorney added.
The upcoming double jeopardy fight could stall proceedings in New York Supreme Court where he’s set to stand trial Sept. 8. It could also lead to litigation in appeals court.
In court, Mangione directly answered a standard set of questions from U.S. District Court Judge Margaret Garnett. He said “yes” to whether he understood his right to a jury trial. He also confirmed that he knew he would lose the right to vote, own a firearm and would no longer be eligible to serve on a jury.
He also said he had never been treated for mental illness and that he was clear-headed but that he had taken a sleep drug in recent days.
Thompson’s family arrived blah blah …and executives from UnitedHealthcare.
blah blah blah.Fervent followers of Mangione are believed blah blah blah …
While the defendant pled guilty, our office does not have a plea agreement with him,” McDonald said outside the courthouse after Mangione’s plea. “Instead, he pled open, which means he pled guilty to all pending counts in the indictment. There are no accommodations or concessions, and we are free to seek the maximum penalty under the law.”
“The result achieved today now allows our office to seek the maximum penalty allowed, life imprisonment, which, as I’ve conveyed to Mr. Thompson’s family, is what we intend to seek,” McDonald added.
Mangione was charged with two federal counts — interstate stalking resulting in death and stalking through use of interstate facilities resulting in death. The charges carry a maximum penalty of life in prison and are separate from the state allegations, which include second-degree murder and firearms crimes.
The brazen bull that is Thompson — blah blah blah - led the nation’s largest healthcare insurer — put a spotlight on the country’s health insurance industry and widespread frustration over denied claims.
I am not going to include the patronizing
poor family who got rich of systemic and deliberate mass murder and tourture of Americans via Thompon’s porky policies as they mourn on mountains of blood money.
https://xcancel.com/AaronParnas/status/2088244953616920816
NEW: Family members confirm to me that the problems service members are facing on air craft carriers are not limited to the USS Lincoln. Those on the USS Bush told family members that they had “virtually no food, water or soap.”


american chauvinists have truly amazing minds https://x.com/ripplebrain/status/2088009774851912096 (privated account)
NEW - U.S. military loses at least 45 MQ-9 Reaper drones, equal to $1.3B, during war with Iran, or roughly 25 percent of its entire fleet — WaPo
oh no! not the obsolete assets!
<some chud with a slur in his name>: “hahaha who cares we weren’t going to use those anyway shoot down as many as you want”
DoD: “we are very worried about this and are have top men digging through the couch cushions in the desperate hope that we might find some Reapers in there”
article from a couple months ago, https://archive.ph/VNgzD
USAF Scrambling To Buy What Few MQ-9 Reapers It Can Find After Epic Fury Losses
The USAF needs to scrounge-up any now out of production Reapers to replace the dozens lost in fights against Iran and the Houthis.
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After reportedly losing dozens of MQ-9 Reaper drones while battling Iran, the Air Force on Friday confirmed to TWZ that it is planning to purchase an undisclosed number of unused ones from General Atomics, who made the aircraft. The company, however, said it has less than 10 of these drones to offer, and it remains unclear where else the Air Force can find more. All of this continues to raise serious questions about the Air Force’s near-term ability to plug gaps left by the losses fighting against Iran and in other recent operations in and around the Middle East. The downed Reapers have a reported combined value of about $1 billion. Furthermore, despite the top Air Force officer recently praising Reaper as “perhaps the most valuable player” in the air war against Iran, the aircraft have been in the crosshairs of service officials. They have openly questioned the drone’s survivability and, by extension, general value in future operations. The Air Force has made several half-hearted efforts, without success, to find a successor. It is now in the early stages of a new attempt at acquiring an “MQ-9 Next.” You can read more about that effort in our story here.
It will be years, if ever, before “MQ-9 Next” comes online. Meanwhile, the search is on for existing replacements. “The USAF intends to purchase several unused MQ-9A Block 5 from GA-ASI [General Atomics Aeronautical Systems, Inc.],” a spokesperson for the service told TWZ today. “A number of MQ-9A Block 5 aircraft were manufactured based on forecasted purchases for other customers but are no longer needed. The available aircraft are currently GA-ASI owned aircraft.” “The USAF has received funds to begin the acquisition process,” they added. The Air Force was responding to our questions about congressional testimony from a top officer highlighting the service’s plans to backfill the combat losses. “We’re looking at options to buy back as many of the MQ-9As as we possibly can right now,” Air Force Lt. Gen. David Tabor, Deputy Chief of Staff for Plans and Programs, had told members of Congress at a hearing back on May 13. “So there’s a bit of a short-term effort to buy back things immediately, in this fiscal year.” Tabor also said at that time that the Air Force’s total MQ-9A fleet had shrunk to 135 aircraft. Official budget documents say the Air Force had 165 Reapers in inventory as of the start of Fiscal Year 2026, which began on October 1 of last year. This had already marked a significant year-over-year decrease, down from 231 MQ-9As at the beginning of Fiscal Year 2025.
Despite Air Force needs, General Atomics told us the number of available Reapers is in short supply. “Between parts in stock for new builds, and company-owned Reapers with some number of flight hours on them, there are less than 10 total ‘new’ MQ-9As available to any customers anywhere in the world,” General Atomics spokesperson C. Mark Brinkley told TWZ earlier this week. “There are some number of decommissioned Reapers out there, and some number of those could potentially be brought back into service.” One place the Air Force won’t be able to find any Reapers is in storage. “The 309th Aerospace Maintenance and Regeneration Group (The Boneyard) has zero MQ-9s in storage nor have they ever regenerated a MQ-9 back into service,” the spokesperson told us. The MQ-9A is out of production. General Atomics has moved on to the MQ-9B, and currently offers those drones in multiple configurations. Though an evolution of the original Reaper, the core B model design differs in significant ways from its predecessor. Any new Air Force purchases of drones in this broader family would have to be of the B model and worked into the existing production schedule.
How many MQ-9As the Air Force has lost in operations in and around the Middle East since January 2025 is unclear, but is understood to be substantial. As of May, “nearly 30 MQ-9 Reapers have been lost in the course” of Operation Epic Fury against Iran, Air & Space Forces Magazine reported, citing “people familiar with the matter.” This is on top of dozens of Reapers reportedly downed while conducting operations targeting Iranian-backed Houthi militants in Yemen in the past year or so. At the hearing last month, Tabor did not provide any official accounting of Reaper losses, but did acknowledge that “we are concerned about how they’ve attrited.” In another effort to bolster the supply of operational Reapers, the Air Force told us that while it never regenerated MQ-1 Predator drones back into service, it was repurposing parts from these aircraft that the service stopped using in 2020. There were dozens on hand after they were retired. More than 50 were sent to the 309th Aerospace Maintenance and Regeneration Group (AMARG) “and heavily cannibalized for spare parts for the MQ-9 aircraft,” the spokesperson told us. Questions about the status of the MQ-1 fleet arose last week after U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) acknowledged the loss of an “MQ-1” drone to Iranian fire. This has led many to question whether American forces are flying the venerable Predator again as a result of the Reaper losses. At the time, the Air Force declined to say if it lost any of theirs and referred us to CENTCOM, which declined comment. However, on Friday, the Air Force told us that in addition to the Predators being used for parts, 20 had been transferred to the Navy. We reached out to them for comment.
As we previously noted, it is also very possible, if not likely, that the uncrewed aircraft in question was an MQ-1C Gray Eagle, a related but different design still in active U.S. Army service. You can read more about this event in our original story here. At the time of the incident, CENTCOM declined to tell us which variant of the MQ-1 was lost. Regardless, the Air Force’s mad scramble to find additional Reapers highlights the value of having a high-flying, long-loitering drone that can gather intelligence and fire off munitions, no matter how slow it flies.
Circa 2019 the DoD was sitting on a fleet of ~250 MQ-9s. At that point they’d taken like 2 losses to enemy fire, with millions of hours flown by the platform. There was no reason to think they’d be used in contested airspace in a protracted war. In that scenario you say sure, go ahead, shut down the production line, this is enough to get us to 2035 or whenever the MQ Next is available. They didn’t realize the wars they’d choose would require them to pull the Reaper Genocide Lever.

[<the chud>]'s MO these days seems to be to ignore the DoD, military journalists, the families of service members, and service members themselves. He personally is the sole arbiter of what’s really going on with the US military.
https://xcancel.com/noducksnofucks/status/2088018929369174267
“Naval suicides, meager rations and no resupply or docking for the better part of a year is no big deal, just commie, military times propaganda” -PlaneGenius
on the impact of debasification on the US Air Force’s combat performance https://x.com/ripplebrain/status/2088085052223549918 (privated account)
No it fucking doesn’t because we literally have hundreds of tankers. There’s no bottleneck when you have enough tankers to service every sortie and then some. We have 75% or more of all aerial fuel tankers in existance around the globe, dude.
Here [<the chud with a slur in his name>] asserts that aerial refueling negates the fundamental physics problem that it takes longer to fly somewhere that’s farther away. Here’s what RAND said when the USAF asked them about it:

This is an analysis of the doctrine the USAF developed in response to recognizing that they’ll be unable to stop ballistic missiles from hitting their airbases: https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RRA900/RRA999-3/RAND_RRA999-3.pdf
Surprise! You can’t do as many sorties if your sorties take longer. You wouldn’t think you’d need to prove this with a complicated computer model but there are people like [<the chud>] out there so it has to be done.

Thank you RAND! Good use of my tax dollars

Clashes between Ansarallah, i.e. the Yemeni Armed Forces, and Saudi-backed mercenaries in Al-Mokha direction. Ansarallah (Houthi) forces have captured the towns of Al-‘Uraysh and Mafraq Al-Mukha, on the 423 Road to the port city of Mokha On the northern front, they have cut off the Taiz-Al Hodeidah Road south of Hays, in the Al-Khawkha sector. Ansarallah advances on the Mokha front, western Yemen. Saudi-backed forces are running away from some of their defensive positions around Hays
- Middle East Spectator
The latest NC article about the Iran conflict contains two interesting testimonies related to the sailors throwing themselves overboard on the USS Lincoln story; one from a recently-retired officer from the US military, another from the mother of a deployed sailor (not on the Lincoln though, on the amphibious assault ship Tripoli).
Here is the first one, from the ex-mil guy, emphasis mine:
And finally the truth. This is making the rounds. If the Lincoln has 5,000 people on it and it hasn’t seen land in 38 weeks… they are starving, no packages, rationing coffee, waiting to die from a fucking Iranian hypersonic. They say the number is 6 attempts. Nearly a year at sea no land, etc. the real number of attempts is likely 5-fold or 10-fold.
You have more attempts at suicide on a NORMAL carrier operation…
As an officer, like them, I have had to do a number of Army Regulation 15-6 Command Investigations on Soldiers committing suicide. All officers have, it’s a normal function. Suicide is a very real and stable number, too. And that’s while you are still in. They have no clue what’s waiting for them the first night they return home (or wherever)… Suicide is a part of daily life in the military.
Here’s another example: in the big units, such as 82nd Airborne, 101st Airborne…if the unit makes it 82 or 101 days without a DUI everyone gets a 4 day weekend. Well, they never got over 3 weeks without one, regularly. So they had to increase the denominator to…suicides. Everyone gets a long weekend if we make it to 82 days without a suicide in OUR OWN UNIT…
Only 6 suicide attempts of 5,000 on an aircraft carrier that is a tinderbox of rage, frustration, and waiting on death? Multiple by 5, minimum. Eventually they end up just telling direct line supervisors if your sailor or soldier kills themself, it’s on YOU.
And less interesting but still relevant, from the sailor’s mom:
I believe I told you I’ve been worried about the mental health of these sailors & marines aboard the navy ships at war. Why? Because they removed all chaplains off my sons ship, the USS TRIPOLI. They kicked them off in Diego Garcia, right before their last leg of trip to entering CENTCOM. This pisses me off. I called so many politicians and raised those alarm bells about their removals. I asked how many other chaplains were removed on other ships??? Again nobody would call me back or email me these answers. And here we are, sailors trying to commit suicide at war. Good GOD, Hegseth NEEDS TO BE FIRED! I guarantee you many military families aren’t aware that their loved ones chaplains were removed before going to war. This is a critical asset to have a chaplain while at war!!! … Politicians need to demand his firing and immediately place chaplains back on every navy ship, especially at war…









