Transferring funds out of stocks when they lose value is a guaranteed way to lose money. This is when people should buy stocks, and transfer to bonds when stocks are at their all time high values (which they very likely will be again in the medium to long term future)
Index funds are down around 5-10%. Currently things are quite uncertain. Some policies could be reversed and you’d see a rally. Demand might skyrocket for a month and then crash, making it a 20-30% loss. Is this the dip to buy? In generally individuals cannot reliably make that judgment. Uncertainty means you should ideally move away from volatility, at least just a little. If you’re 80% index funds and 20% bonds or CDs or similar, consider 70-30 as a hedge. This could go either way, the point is that it is more conservative, it protects against large losses at the expense of average potential for gaining because the market seems particularly risky/volatile.
If you have cash to throw at a retirement fund and want to gamble (buy low sell high etc etc), I would personally wait a month or so. It is now more likely than ever that shortages and accompanying price hikes will hit. Commerce has small warehouses now. “Just in time” logic. That would cause an actual profitability crisis.
All very good points. I can only wonder how long the money brigade will let trump run rampant before it starts to affect their portfolios and outlook to the point where they step in. I can’t imagine the capital that benefits from Trump will actually let him significantly damage their assets in a proper crash.
I guess you could say I’m in the “nothing ever happens” camp on this, but only time will tell
The big players benefit from the business cycle. They build up big war chests when they think there will be a downturn abd then buy up all the smaller companies that fail. Overall everything gets worse but they don’t really care about that.
I do think they are flirting with a massive crash that hasn’t been seen in ages. Quantitative easing remains at full blast. There aren’t many tools they would actually want to use to stabilize “the economy” when there is a crash. So it could just be a Great Depression 2.0. Tariffs destroy demand and the country is propped up by imperialist consumption + IP so I think this disaster has legs.
Of course Trump could reverse course on the tariffs and call them a negotiating tactic instead of a failure at any moment. Who knows.
Transferring funds out of stocks when they lose value is a guaranteed way to lose money. This is when people should buy stocks, and transfer to bonds when stocks are at their all time high values (which they very likely will be again in the medium to long term future)
Index funds are down around 5-10%. Currently things are quite uncertain. Some policies could be reversed and you’d see a rally. Demand might skyrocket for a month and then crash, making it a 20-30% loss. Is this the dip to buy? In generally individuals cannot reliably make that judgment. Uncertainty means you should ideally move away from volatility, at least just a little. If you’re 80% index funds and 20% bonds or CDs or similar, consider 70-30 as a hedge. This could go either way, the point is that it is more conservative, it protects against large losses at the expense of average potential for gaining because the market seems particularly risky/volatile.
If you have cash to throw at a retirement fund and want to gamble (buy low sell high etc etc), I would personally wait a month or so. It is now more likely than ever that shortages and accompanying price hikes will hit. Commerce has small warehouses now. “Just in time” logic. That would cause an actual profitability crisis.
All very good points. I can only wonder how long the money brigade will let trump run rampant before it starts to affect their portfolios and outlook to the point where they step in. I can’t imagine the capital that benefits from Trump will actually let him significantly damage their assets in a proper crash.
I guess you could say I’m in the “nothing ever happens” camp on this, but only time will tell
The big players benefit from the business cycle. They build up big war chests when they think there will be a downturn abd then buy up all the smaller companies that fail. Overall everything gets worse but they don’t really care about that.
I do think they are flirting with a massive crash that hasn’t been seen in ages. Quantitative easing remains at full blast. There aren’t many tools they would actually want to use to stabilize “the economy” when there is a crash. So it could just be a Great Depression 2.0. Tariffs destroy demand and the country is propped up by imperialist consumption + IP so I think this disaster has legs.
Of course Trump could reverse course on the tariffs and call them a negotiating tactic instead of a failure at any moment. Who knows.
Appreciate your insight