:yea: That’s what made me switch to bike commuting the moment I saw early news about COVID. Like 90% of bike components come from China so it’s still vulnerable to trade war shocks, but the past 6 years have proven that it’s less vulnerable than my car is. Most repairs on that require a more expensive mechanic trying to source more expensive components. If I can’t repair something myself with hand tools on my bike, at least here we have education-focused co-ops that will teach you how to do that repair for the cost of the parts. The electronic components are the only things that require dedicated shops every 3-5+ years. When supply chains are collapsing, the only thing I can do to defend myself against that is to simplify my consumption to the most basic and functional things. If I could go back to when I bought that 2010s car, I would have instead bought a pre-computerised small pickup truck for the same reason.

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It’s the thing I hate most about living in a city transitioning between being car and bike-centric. The infrastructure is there to do 90% of my commute without traffic, but that last 10% on roads with a painted line at most is too risky to ever stomach doing it in a place where I would have to remain 100% in traffic. That’s how we were until 1973 though. The 1930s-70s development was as car-centric as any Midwestern town. Petition movements in the 1970s were given a huge boost in public support after the oil crisis made driving impractical/impossible for the most insufferable generations of carbrained Americans. It took another decade before it was really reflected in the urbanism, but now people move here specifically for it so the project snowballs rapidly.

When I had a similar one, it was the worst part of my day even when I commuted to do tech support for boomers. So much mileage and potential damage for my car, such a flood of stress hormones when I haven’t yet woken up or am needing to decompress from work, only tolerable if I put on a podcast but didn’t pay attention because of the millisecond responses needed to drive at 130kmh in heavy traffic. I might be so tired that I’m forgetting things, but if I didn’t do it perfectly at best I might destroy the most expensive thing I own without killing something. It felt so poisonous once I could replace it. Now it’s just a gentle 15 minute joy ride through the greenspaces I steward, usually the best part of my day and at least something that is enriching without stress. It’d make me a communist if I wasn’t already a communist.

The big thing with '73 is that it wasn’t just fuel cost increases, but shortages too. It’s the latter that fucks me up enough to change my consumption whenever it happens, like that huge bump in bidet sales when COVID sparked toilet paper hoarding. I think you’re right in the greater drivers of bike adoption being tolls and parking. This is just a unique moment where I think people might have to ask if their current way of life is still practical individually. Normally my fuel cost savings are just a minor perk that I barely notice because I only refill my car a couple times per month at most. If I had a moment where I needed to refuel my car and couldn’t, all the security that vehicle gives me evaporates and it suddenly feels very vulnerable.

I’ve considered buying one for road trips, but one of my first ambulance calls was a motorcyclist going over the handlebars and that’s when I learned that the face is the crumple zone of the brain. While they’re a good transitional use of the existing infrastructure along with cheaper/smaller EVs, they still induce demand for car infrastructure that’s more underfunded with people transitioning to micromobility. Building and maintaining those roads is a huge municipal burden requiring fleets of heavy vehicles.

For interurban highway travel, ideally the same crisis is going to drive demand for mass transit. In Colorado we have the rudiments of a regional bus network and planned commuter rail linking to the national network. Both of those are much higher priorities for people stuck with an hour-long commute that’s suddenly much more expensive. In my Bicycle Bolshevik Garden City of the Future, the interurban multiuse trails induce demand for pleasant cafes with quick recharging/battery swap stations like a good version of truck stops. Highway speeds scare me (outside of a bus/train) and detach me from the landscape, while going 45kmh between cities without range anxiety is an enriching day trip.

That’s fine, but there are a ton of people who can use an ebike for their commute who are not currently doing so

The hate for e-mopeds and ebikes mostly seem to be boomers who don’t ride anyway.

I fucking loved my ebike and will be replacing it once I have work again (unfortunately the battery died and it would cost about half as much as a whole new bike to replace, there are no aftermarket options. I loved my Smartmotion but the next one will be a brand where aftermarket batteries exist!)

Aliexpress has some really interesting options for that middle-ground vehicle you’re describing. Enclosed etrikes and four-wheel models for $2000-6000. I want that similar progression of kei trucks to this guy’s thing: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PHU8VK3qIa4

The bathroom issue is one of the best parts of my city’s trail network. It’s focused on connecting schools, services, and stores through the parks system. If you ride ten minutes in any direction at most there’s an accessible bathroom and a bike repair station with covered picnic tables nearby. They lack showers though as the city tries to concentrate its homeless population around the shelters with dedicated services nearby.

I’m surprised the tariffs haven’t impacted the market more. There have been some $100-200 price jumps and sales are fake unless they are discontinuing a model, but that’s about it so far since the manufacturers stockpiled before the tariffs went into effect. Electric Bike Company, founded by a MAGA hog, might be the only ebike company I can think of which has went under as a result of the tariffs specifically.

Avoid Rad Power Bikes. They just declared bankruptcy and are voiding warranties. COVID caused a big spike in ebike sales and Rad is one of those companies that thought it was the big moment. They overstocked in anticipation of sales booming forever and were left with recycling those 2021 models as 2023-2025 ones to try to scrape sales together while dealing with wrongful death/battery fire lawsuits. The only worse option is a no-name ebike off Amazon.

I have an Aventon Abound LR and love it. They go for like $1500 on Upway or $2000 on the manufacturer website. It’s enough to fit a week’s worth of groceries, 1-2 kids, or a sub-60kg adult on the back. In a year and 3000km~ of usage it hasn’t given me any issues. Aventon weathered the storm in the 2022-2024 market downturn and they’re regarded as the best of the value brands. When I was buying it and comparing it to Rad’s options pre-bankruptcy, what won me over was anti-theft suite that I use every time I ride.

Now I’m considering upgrading to a Tern though. For the extra $1000-2000, I can run it into the ground for a decade with confidence in the electronics. A mid-drive motor means rear wheel repairs aren’t obnoxious and the bikes stand vertically for easy indoor storage. My first ebike was a Lectric and I learned the hard way that a cheap bike is expensive and ebike speeds are too fast for cheap components. I’m confident in my Abound, but I’m expecting 5 years of heavy use for that $2000 before it needs electronics swaps that are hard with the proprietary frame design.

edit: I will also say that a cargo bike is the right choice. I have two commuter bikes and the cargo one. There’s never a time I choose the commuter bikes over the cargo one. 20" tyres with a step-through design has saved my ass so many times when commuting on bad terrain. I feel a lot more confident on ice especially (after upgrading the stock tyres to Schwalbe Pick-Ups). Its low centre of gravity is critical for feeling safe at 32kmh with any kind of weight on the back. That particular bike is the best thing I’ve ever purchased in terms of utility.

They’re in a weird gap between the two kinds of roads. On my paved multiuse trails, I feel safe riding a Class 2 bike that maxes out at 32kmh. That’s also what I’d lock urban riding to generally if I was Ebike Stalin. I can stop quickly from the max speed if needed, or slow to a crawl for others without risking anyone behind me or causing a traffic jam. My moral standard for my commute is that I don’t want to scare a dog, baby, or bird which I’m able to meet on existing bike infrastructure.

But that’s also too narrow in the way that roads are too wide for them. Ideally the multiuse path would be the size of 1-1.5 road lanes or 4-6 sidewalks. Especially at any speed higher than 15kmh, I want to be able to maintain a 2m distance from anything else on the trail. That would be enough to safely make any adjustment at any speed, or to travel at a class 3 45kmh on an empty trail. It’d also be wide enough for emergency vehicle access with some buffer room.