“It all comes down to who controls the Strait of Hormuz,” Dalio wrote in a lengthy post on X. If Iran retains the ability to control or even negotiate over who passes through the strait—through which roughly a fifth of the world’s oil supply flows daily—Dalio argues the U.S. will be seen as having lost the war, regardless of how the conflict is resolved. Dalio compared a potential U.S. failure at Hormuz to Britain’s humiliation during the 1956 Suez Crisis, a moment widely regarded by historians as the end of the British Empire’s global imperialism.
How are you even supposed to succeed in Hormuz? They need to not be able to make a missile in their entire country and no one else can give them missles and they have to be stopped from mining the strait if it looks like defeat is inevitable. It seems basically impossible.
Regime change, except they completely bungled that too
Blowing up all the compradors-in-waiting is definitely a greatest bit of all time contender.
Admitting it was even funnier, and the way Trump admitted to it too
They aren’t mining the strait nor have they threatened to, ever. It was always CIA/state department propaganda to push down the oil markets.
Please please please please please please please please ple
it’s ok they can just rename it to strait of america
iran should change the official english name of the straits to “presinald trunt’s greatest failure” as a joke
let’s fuckin go
The comparison to the suez crisis is very compelling, but also like… that was the UK and France, who were being pressured by the US and USSR to pull out. This invasion is being lead by the US, which has no larger superpower looming behind it to pressure it to leave, so ALL of the onus is on Iran to actually win.
I think, in this case, the pressure will be economic. As US allies in Europe and Asia start crashing, that’s going necessarily drag the US down as well. The war is incredibly unpopular domestically, and if it leads to a big recession then there’s going to be a pressure from domestic capitalists to wind the war down.
