Mere hours before Trump’s 8pm Tuesday deadline yesterday, Pakistan’s government contacted Iran with a US-written proposal for a two-week ceasefire, explicitly stated to also include Lebanon, during which they would negotiate a permanent end to the war on the basis of Iran’s 10 Points. Among other things, these points include 1) maintaining strict control (joint with Oman) over Hormuz, complete with a toll; 2) the end of sanctions on Iran; 3) keeping their enriched uranium; 4) a withdrawal of US forces from the Middle East [stated by the Supreme Leadership Council but not in the 10 Points, so who knows], and 5) some plausible guarantee that Iran would never be attacked again. I’ve heard rumors that China may have prodded Iran to accept these terms.
In theory, these are relatively confident and maximalist demands. In practice, Iran has already achieved military and economic control over Hormuz and the withdrawal of many US troops and bases from the region, so at least a few of Iran’s demands are, to a greater or lesser extent, already achieved, and with little hope for an increasingly exhausted US to undo these achievements short of nukes.
A couple hours after the ceasefire, the Zionist entity began a wave of airstrikes in Lebanon, killing hundreds of civilians, as well as flying drones into Iranian airspace. This was a strange move to make even if you assume - very sensibly - that the US is completely agreement non-capable: why not agree to the ceasefire and simply pretend to negotiate for two weeks while regrouping/repairing what assets you can and then start hitting Iran again?
One theory is that the Zionists are testing to what degree Iran is actually willing to have solidarity with Lebanon and Hezbollah. While the Resistance has been relatively united since October 7th, the formation of separate peaces instead of negotiating terms as a united front has been a major exploitable weakness. Alternatively, it’s been proposed that the US didn’t even consider using the ceasefire to regroup and deceive Iran, and that Trump merely wanted a way to chicken out of his threat on Iran’s electrical grid - the fact that US officials have since stated that Iran’s 10 Points were not the same ones they agreed to is a point supporting this, I suppose. If the conflict resumes and Trump does not deliver another 48 hour deadline (and/or makes it something silly like a month from now) then this could be the explanation.
From Iran, I am getting the sense that a lot is happening behind the scenes. Statements from top officials like Araghchi have stated quite plainly that there will be no ceasefire and no negotiations unless the Zionists stop attacking Lebanon, but as of ~24 hours after the ceasefire began, there has been no significant military response from Iran yet. There have apparently been phone calls between Araghchi and numerous regional officials, but it is unknown to what end. All the while, the global economic situation continues to deteriorate. Over the next week or two, the last tankers that left Hormuz before it closed will arrive at their destinations. If the missile exchanges begin once more, then the West, much like most of the rest of the world, will be experiencing all sorts of fuel, energy, food, and product shortages while trying to justify why they broke the ceasefire to kill more Lebanese civilians.
Last week’s thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.
Please check out the RedAtlas!
The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.
The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on the Zionists’ destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia’s youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don’t want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it’s just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists’ side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR’s former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR’s forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster’s telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a ‘propaganda tax’, if you don’t believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
WSJ: Trump Promises Mass Pardons to Staff Before Leaving Office
“I’ll pardon everyone who has come within 200 feet of the Oval,” Trump said in a recent meeting to laughs, according to people with knowledge of the comments. That radius appears to be expanding as the president repeats the line. Another person who met with Trump earlier this year said the president quipped about pardoning anyone who had come within 10 feet.
Crazy that he just came up with this gangster strategy, no other US president would ever d–
Trump’s liberal use of the pardon power follows former President Joe Biden’s sweeping and pre-emptive end-of-term grants to multiple top officials and family members who he said could face scrutiny from the Justice Department under Trump. Those included his son Hunter Biden and Dr. Anthony Fauci, the longtime leader of the National Institutes of Health.
Former Biden aides said** they understood why Biden granted them**, but that they served as a norm-breaking precedent for Trump to exploit.
“By testing the boundaries of the pardon power, Biden cracked the door open and we can’t now complain about Donald Trump walking through it, even if he blows it wide open,” said Michael LaRosa, a former communications aide to Biden.
China to ban sulfuric acid exports as Iran war hits supply - mining.com
Bluesky comment mashup
Sulfuric acid is the industrial “workhorse” used in fertilizers, batteries and household & industrial cleaning products. It’s pretty much used in everything from paper to plastics to chemicals to medicine.
Leader of the KMT speaking on China/Taiwan
Iran’s ‘Minab 168’ Delegation has arrived in Pakistan
Trump says US will have strait of Hormuz ‘open fairly soon’ - Guardian update
Donald Trump has wish his vice-president JD Vance luck ahead of talks with Iran in Islamabad this weekend. Asked what a good deal would look like, the US president replied:
“No nuclear weapon, that’s 99% of it. We’ll see how it turns out, we’ll see how it all works out.”
He also told reporters the US will have the strait of Hormuz “open fairly soon”.
“That’ll open up automatically… we don’t use the strait, other countries use the strait. We will have that open fairly soon.”
And asked about whether the US has a backup plan, Trump said:
“We don’t need a backup plan … we’ve hit them hard, our military is amazing.”
S&P 500 and oil prices - NYT update
The S&P 500 finished 0.1 percent lower on Friday, but it ended the week 3.6 percent higher, its strongest showing since last November. The gain came despite concerns about the durability of a temporary cease-fire in the Iran war. Oil prices remained mostly level since Thursday, with the price of Brent crude, the international benchmark, settling at $95.20 a barrel. That was still up more than 30 percent since its price before the war.
https://xcancel.com/seld_on/status/2042619181057581232
First train crosses rebuilt Yahyaabad railway bridge in Kashan, central Iran, after it was damaged in a US-Israeli attack on April 7.
I wasn’t expecting to be proven right this quickly. This was only three days ago
https://xcancel.com/bonzerbarry/status/2042693593312165952
Apparently Iran provided the Hadid 110 (their fastest stealth drone) to an Iraqi resistance faction and they fired some at Kuwait. These must be what the Kuwaiti army has been dealing with the last 24+ hours.
An insane sequence of events, featuring the Israeli emergency mobile cum extraction field response unit. Apparently, Israelis loosened the rules around sperm retrieval as well!
https://x.com/Seamus_Malek/status/2042609122474926318
Sperm retrieval from corpses has had regulations loosened since October 7th and now civilians can have their sperm retrieved from their corpses with parental authorization without courts being involved.
https://xcancel.com/ripplebrain/status/2042697347432362242
The Al Jazeera documentary show Ma Khafiya A’atham (“What is Hidden is Greater”) aired an episode earlier today showing extensive footage of the destruction at Al Udeid air base and the wreckage of two Iranian Sukhois that were shot down by Qatari air defenses. If anyone’s seen the full episode posted anywhere please share. Here’s a short, low res clip.
Found it, the footage is interspersed with interviews so you’ll have to skip around. I’ll upload here shortly as a mirror: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=blzPXDAtbTc
“It Seems Like Blind American Ignorance”: The New U.S. War on Iraq
In the shadow of its wars in Iran and Lebanon, the U.S. has conducted devastating attacks on the security forces of its Iraqi ally.
Story by Nir Rosen and Hajar al Obeidi
ANBAR, Iraq—Colonel Dr. Talal Hussein Talal Dhiab, commander of the military hospital at Habaniya military base in Iraq’s Anbar province, feared the worst when he heard the sound of a low flying plane overhead at 5 a.m. on March 25. The U.S. A10 attack plane, which likely flew out of an American base in neighboring Jordan, ascended and descended repeatedly, Talal told Drop Site News.
Talal hurriedly woke up other medical officers, alerting them to go to the emergency room and prepare to receive new wounded.
Only the day before, the U.S. military had attacked a building at the base housing the province’s command for the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), an Iraqi state security force reporting to the prime minister. He said 1st Lt. Abdallah al Zobai, also a doctor, was exhausted from treating the previous day’s wounded, so he let him sleep in the officer’s housing.
After circling the base, at about 9 a.m. the A10 attacked the same PMF building. Shrapnel from the explosion wounded Iraqi army soldiers nearby. Talal and his men rushed over to help the wounded, and the plane returned and struck the army officer’s housing, gravely wounding Zobai.
Medical staff climbed over debris searching for wounded, Talal said. As the first responders arrived, the A10 attacked them, firing its 30-mm Gatling-style rotary canon—typically armed with a mix of armor-piercing and high explosive incendiary rounds, fired at a rate of 4,000 rounds per minute—tearing bodies apart, cutting off heads and limbs. Talal himself was wounded and lost consciousness, bleeding heavily. Two other officers with him were badly wounded. The U.S. attacked the Habaniya base five times that day, killing seven Iraqi soldiers and officers and wounding 23. Most of the casualties were among the responders.
At one point, as the A10 descended to attack again, a soldier desperately opened fire at it with his rifle, according to other soldiers on the base. The base did not have air defenses; its men had never expected to be attacked from the sky.
Habaniya was established in 2005, during the U.S. military occupation of Iraq, and provided support for Iraqi security forces throughout Anbar province during the years of the al Qaeda-led insurgency and then the war on ISIS. It is well known to the U.S. military.
“At this clinic we perform our humanitarian and professional duty only,” Talal told Drop Site while recovering at home in Anbar’s Khaldiya. “We receive the wounded without asking about their affiliations or groups, whether they are from the army, the PMF, or any other group, and we treat and provide them with first aid.”
The March 25 assault was the sixth American attack on the Iraqi army since the launch of the war on Iran. As of April 7, there had been a total of 138 U.S. attacks on Iraq—including two additional strikes on the Iraqi army—resulting in the deaths of more than 73 PMF fighters, 10 Iraqi army soldiers, three dead from the Interior Ministry, and six dead civilians, according to Iraqi officials. For many in the country, it was starting to feel as if the U.S. has declared war on Iraq as well.
The U.S. attacks continued until the two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran was announced on April 8. On April 8, as Israel struck Lebanon at least 100 times and killed hundreds, Iran refused to implement the ceasefire agreement until Israel halted its aggression against Lebanon. Likewise Sheikh Akram al Kaabi who leads Nujaba, a key group in the Islamic Resistance of Iraq, rejected any ceasefire that did not include Lebanon in it. Even if the ceasefire holds, the U.S. strikes of the last six weeks are likely to have long-term consequences on both internal Iraqi dynamics and the relationship between Baghdad and Washington.
“There was a political, economic, and social effect to this last war,” said an official with the Islamic Resistance of Iraq, who spoke on condition of anonymity. “Who is striking Iraq today? America, right? What is America striking in Iraq? Bases of security forces, the PMF, the army. America is destroying the Iraq it built.”
Joe Kent, former director of the Trump administration’s National Counterterrorism Center, worked closely with the Iraqi government before resigning in March in protest over the U.S. war on Iran. He said he was at a loss to explain why the U.S. military was going after such a wide variety of targets in Iraq.
“For the life of me I don’t know,” Kent told Drop Site on March 28, “a lot of targeting inside Iran comes from Israelis. I’m assuming they have done some targeting in Iraq. They didn’t invest much. It seems like blind American ignorance. Someone convinced us that everything that is PMF is an Iranian proxy. It’s people who didn’t understand the history of Iraq in the last 20 years.”
“There’s definitely no strategy there. The charge d’affaires [at the U.S. embassy in Baghdad] and his team are not this fucking dumb, there’s no way they’re advocating this, they would know the difference between the militias,” he added. “You have guys who didn’t spend that long in Iraq, or senior leaders who spent time in Iraq during the ‘surge’ and think this is their chance to settle scores.”
The “surge” refers to a period beginning in 2007 when President George W. Bush increased the American military presence in an attempt to quash Sunni and Shia insurgents, as well as suppress the raging Iraqi civil war. It was during this period that the Americans increasingly clashed with Shia militias such as the Mahdi Army, as well as the so-called special groups who would become today’s resistance factions. Many Americans who served in this period became anti-Shia, as opposed to those who had been in Iraq in the preceding years, when Sunni extremists were the main threat to their project and to Iraqi civilians.
According to a former State Department official, who until recently worked on Iraq and spoke to Drop Site on condition of anonymity, the American attitude was, “There are no friendly forces in Iraq. Everything is the same, army, PMF, militias, resistance. Same people, same commanders, same supply chain. That’s why fighting militias is impossible. I just don’t think anyone knows what anyone is doing in any part of this.”
“The Israelis want the chaos and some at CENTCOM want a do-over of the Iraq war,” Kent said. “There are guys who think we can use this as a chance to wipe out Shia and Iranian influence, it’s absurd.”
“U.S. forces have recently taken action in response to attacks from Iran-backed militia groups against American forces and personnel. We will not hesitate to protect our people,” said U.S. Navy Capt. Tim Hawkins, a spokesperson for U.S. Central Command, in response to questions from Drop Site on the targeting of PMF and the Iraqi army.
https://xcancel.com/ripplebrain/status/2042678749221511281
Absolute bombshell on FOX News. A top correspondent exposes massive chaos in the Trump administration. Jared Kushner secretly offered Iran unlimited uranium for peaceful use, but now JD Vance is demanding zero enrichment. Washington has absolutely no coherent strategy!
The enrichment issue is ridiculous to even talk about now. Iran already possesses the Global Economic Extinction Bomb, and there’s no way to take it away from them. They effectively control two of the most important economic chokepoints on earth. The idea that they’re going to go rogue and nuke someone is genuinely less frightening.
https://xcancel.com/ripplebrain/status/2042672563973669239
Refusing to ship Saudi and Emirati oil through the strait while it is under Iranian control—in a way, an informal oil embargo—would transfer the costs of this problem onto other nations, and force them to intervene, some Gulf officials calculate - WSJ
This war is devolving into so many different layers of states threatening to destroy the global economy it’s becoming impossible to follow. This is effectively the same idea as the people on here saying Trump should do his own blockade of the strait. The best case scenario for international stability at this point might be Persian Empire 2: Islamic Edition. Just think for a moment about how multiple states that are currently at war with each other are each proposing taking the same action: blockading the strait. They’re also destroying each other’s oil infrastructure. There’s plenty of evidence that the Gulf states have occasionally attacked each other over the course of this conflict to keep it going. Everyone’s converging on sending oil to a gorillion dollars a barrel and crashing the global economy with no survivors. The coolest thing about this idea is that the Iranians wouldn’t participate and would make a gorillion dollars from oil being $200 a barrel
https://xcancel.com/antesignanvs/status/2042674009448251496
Joint Iranian-American regime change operation in the Gulf states to get the oil flowing again.
US Navy ends USS Boise submarine overhaul after price tag soars
The U.S. Navy announced today that it would begin retiring the Los Angeles-class attack submarine USS Boise after repairs for the boat became too costly. The submarine, which had been sidelined since 2015, began a $1.2 billion overhaul at Huntington Ingalls Industries’ Newport News Shipbuilding, Virginia, in 2024. “After a rigorous, data-driven analysis, we’ve made the tough but necessary decision to inactivate the USS Boise,” said Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Daryl Caudle. “This strategic move allows us to reallocate America’s highly-skilled workforce to our highest priorities: delivering new Virginia and Columbia-class submarines and improving the readiness of the current fleet.” The U.S. Navy is currently working to deliver the Columbia-class submarine by 2028, according to a 2025 report from Congress. The Navy recently commissioned its newest Virginia-class nuclear attack submarine, the USS Massachusetts, on March 28, making it the 12th Virginia-class submarine in service. Navy Secretary John Phelan said in an interview with Fox News Friday that the submarine had already cost the service $800 million and would require another $1.9 billion to finish repairs. It was time for the Navy to cut its losses, Phelan told the outlet. President Donald Trump recently released his fiscal 2027 defense budget, asking Congress for $65 billion for shipbuilding that would include the production of two new Virginia-class submarines and one new Columbia-class submarine. The Trump administration is requesting 34 ships, including the manufacturing of 18 battle force ships and 16 non-battle force ships, which doubles the amount requested in fiscal 2026.
