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I was under the impression that “war with China” was at the top of the plans for over a decade now. I definitely remember seeing stuff like this years ago, and all that’s changed is the US is even more reliant on Chinese imports.
Is a war-time economy still good if your manufacturing sector can’t get 2/3rds of its raw materials?
Are you kidding? The West went to war with Russia and then was actually flabbergasted Russia stopped the fuel exports. You’re talking about people with an orange between their ears. I’ve scraped stuff off my shoes that was more intelligent than Western European politicians.
EDIT: All that to say, America will still expect China to export what we need.
It wasn’t even that, Russia was actually pretty happy to continue gas exports. Europeans stopped paying and were flabbergasted that after that Russian gas stopped coming in.
I love that the causus belli is literally “vibes”
There were some think tanks that stated that war in the SCS should ideally occur at the 2025 mark.
The thought process is that the US gets weaker every passing year while China gets stronger. So waiting any longer will be a detriment to US interests while increasing the odds for a smooth (and peaceful) reunification with Taiwan.
Reminiscent of WW2
it’s not just movies where we get constant remakes…
Dude, the “reunification” stuff is ALL larp. Even the phrase makes no sense. The CPC has never controlled Taiwan. Throughout Chinese dynastic history, they didn’t care at all about Taiwan. It was a dangerous place of zero importance.
Also, Taiwan isn’t going to let some foreign country take over. This has never happened in the history of humans.
The CPC SHOULD have chased the KMT off of Taiwan or PREVENTED them from going in the first place. THAN they would have been welcomed just like the KMT were first initially welcomed because they weren’t Japanese colonizers that treated Taiwanese like 2nd class citizens. (Obviously the KMT turned out to be worse - more oppressive, more violent, didn’t care at all about developing the country)
cw: self-harm
The year is 2041. I’m rummaging through the streets of what was once, long ago, known as Seattle. I’ve long since turned off my Geiger counter - damn thing wouldn’t stop beeping. But the roving bands of Nazis will kill me faster than the radiation if I set out for the countryside. My travelling companion shouts - he’s found a place to make camp, with a mostly intact roof and a good view of the street. I move to the window to take first watch. As my companion lays down to bed he says, “Well you know, at least we saved the Uighurs. You know before all this happened my brother’s friend’s uncle who worked for the CIA told me the craziest stories about them…” and he drifts off to sleep. I contemplate whether to put a bullet into his head, or my own.
Wrote this like 3 years ago in response to someone on
to be determined
Can’t wait to see the Amerikkkan navy get sent straight to hell by a barrage of DF-21Ds within hours of shit going hot.
Lol I just posted this, I need to check the news comm more before I post.
I’ll just drop my comment here: if the first BRICS transaction without the dollar occurs before the end of 2025, then China has an opportunity to significantly reduce trade with the dollar in retaliation for this war.
This is a major redline that the US is going to overstep, but China probably wouldn’t want to throw the world into a major recession for this since no one would benefit. The US is probably banking on keeping up trade with China should they send their navy into the SCS along with their “allies.”
But this hinges on whether or not China and associated BRICS trade partners can actually carry out transactions without the dollar.
My expectation is that China would just focus on BRICS and trade with developing countries outside the dollar. I don’t really see why China would care all that much whether G7 economies go into recession as result of the US attacking China. In fact, this would likely force at least some G7 members to break with the US or see their economies collapse.
I don’t really see why China would care all that much whether G7 economies go into recession as result of the US attacking China.
Everyone’s economy is connected, when the US went into recession in 2008 the world went down with it. That’s the problem with having a single reserve currency (this is eventually going to change but as for now that’s the reality). If that currency’s respective country shits the bed, then everyone else that relies on it for transaction will shit the bed too.
Obviously China doesn’t want a repeat of 2008 so it’s a toss up on whether they’ll quit trading with the US to pressure them to pull out of the SCS (and hurt the rest of the world in the process) or continue trading so that the world doesn’t enter a recession.
The big question is whether dedollarization is remotely feasible by the time the operation takes place.
Everyone’s economy is connected, however as Russia showed already, it’s entirely possible to decouple for hostile economies. It’s also worth noting that China is very much aware of the dangers here and have been massively diverting their trade away from G7 https://asiatimes.com/2024/05/2-words-explain-china-export-surge-global-south/
If China stops trade in dollars, then other countries will just start using yuan, or perhaps the BRICS currency will go online by then. Either way, this is not an insurmountable problem by any stretch of imagination.
Meanwhile, what ultimately matters is the relative damage to BRICS vs G7 economies. This is also what we’re seeing playing out with the economic war on Russia where G7 economies are coming out worse off and as a result we’re already seeing a lot political instability in Europe.
I can’t disagree with anything you’ve said, but I still feel that China might choose the route that alienates the least G7/ EU member states.
Even if some users here feel it’s foolish for China to expect US “allies” to hold their own interests above Washington’s, China might not burn trade deals that could jeopardize relationships with Europe. China is still working on expanding trade with the EU at the same time it’s working with Russia and Iran.
China’s interests don’t 100% line up with its allies’ interests. The US on the other hand expects its enemies to be the enemies of their allies as well, but China knows that doesn’t need to be the case.
It could be that China tries to turn the trade war against the US by playing both sides, while the US will undoubtedly escalate. If it turns out to be the case, then this could further alienate Washington from their EU allies.
This paves the way for more Chinese trade and more expansion of the BRI into Europe, while simultaneously reducing Washington’s influence on trade in the region.
Tldr: China taking the nuclear stop trade with us option is a possibility, but they might just play the long game so they can end up on everybody’s (except US) good side 10-20 years down the line.
I don’t expect that China would burn trade deals with countries unless they have to either. However, I do think it’s realistic for China to say that they wish further payments to happen in yuan the way Russia did with roubles after being frozen out of SWIFT. Europeans might grumble a bit about it, but when push comes to shove they have no choice but to go along with that.
The main problem for China is that if it continues to be reliant on SWIFT then it’s exposed to financial warfare by the west. Hence, why I think China will want to avoid doing trade using western financial system as much as possible going forward.
So, I agree with you that China will likely be very surgical regarding what trade it cuts with the west entirely, I do expect it to nudge the countries it trades with to start increasing trading outside the dollar going forward.
in the end China will win
exports only makes up 20% of China’s GDP
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i dunno about BRICS transaction, whatever that officially means but cross trade using each other’s currency has already overtaken USD trade for some countries
I think openly stating your war preparations against a nuclear country is a very smart thing to do.
In all seriousness, Comrade Xi, get on growing that nuclear stockpile
I mean as the USA’s main peer adversary I am surprised to read that they don’t already consider themselves to be prepared for the possibility of military action against china today. Like what else are they doing? (Besides getting humiliated by the Houthis…)
I assume it’s just simple-minded reporting
If China needs any American civilians to take to a camp, but the camp is like cozy in the mountains somewhere getting to eat home made soups, noodles, and rice dishes where I get to study kanji DM me. I’ll teach you the secrets of anglo grappling for a local Sanda school.
Yeah I volunteer to go do small scale distilling work in rural villages that are having an bumper crop of fruits or grains
Kanji are japanese, they’re hanzi in chinese. You get to go to a re-education camp where you will learn the difference, among other things.
There must be a misunderstanding. Please don’t put me in a camp with a bunch of chuds. I need an honors camp - an AP camp.
Hmm you’ll have to take the entrance exams, until then you go in the remedial camp.
there must be some mistake! I’ve been posting on lefty image boards for YEARS! I never said China is… le bad! If you don’t let me into the AP camps I’m going to stop prime subbing to Hasan Piker!!
Looking forward to bathing in nuclear hellfire with the rest of my fellow Murican hexbears.lol carrier group go glug
Holy shit generals are the dumbest people. I once had to sit and listen to a 3 star give our small fob a pep talk in Iraq. Dumb ass actually told us that the war was “just like football” and each thing we were successful at was a first down. Any general that saber rattles should be thrown in the brig for life.
according to Scott Ritter the US has a LOT of high ranking generals and their job is basically to make weapons contractors money
I saw that kind of shit in the Marines, a bunch of “good business” arrangements for retiring higher ups. Apparently the online personnel website (marine online) is owned and operated by a retired sergeant major. It’s severely outdated and has massive security vulnerabilities. Petty sure they haven’t updated it since 2003, and that fat sack just keeps collecting a paycheck with his pension. The whole MIC is just that level of boring.
