Image is of destruction and damage inside Israel, sourced from this article.
Iran and Israel have struck each other many times over the last few days. There has been a general focus on military facilities and headquarters by both sides, though Israel has also struck oil facilities, civilian structures and hospitals, and in return for this, Iran has struck major scientific centers and the Haifa oil facilities.
Israel appears to have three main aims. First, to collapse the Iranian state, either through shock and breakdown by killing enough senior officials, or via some sort of internal military coup. Second, to try and destroy Iranian nuclear sites and underground missile cities, or at least to paralyze them long enough to achieve the first and third goals. And third, to bring the US into a direct conflict with Iran. This is because the US better equipped to fight them than Israel is (though victory would still not be guaranteed depending on what Iran chooses to do).
Iranian nuclear facilities are hidden deep underground (800 meters), far beyond the depth range of even the most powerful bunker busters (~70 meters or so), and built such that the visible ground entrances are horizontally far away in an unknown direction from the actual underground chambers. Only an extremely competent full-scale American bombing force all simultaneously using multiple of the most powerful conventional (perhaps even nuclear) bunker busters could even hypothetically hope to breach them (and we have seen how, in practice, American bunker busters have largely failed to impair or deter Ansarallah). There are several analysts on both sides who have concluded that it is entirely impossible to physically prevent Iran from building nukes.
I fully expect the US to join the war. I believe the current ambiguity is a deliberate invention of the US while they work to move their military assets into position, and as soon as they are ready, the US will start bombing Iran. After that, Iran’s leadership must - if they haven’t already - harden their hearts, and strike back with no fear, or risk following the path of Libya, Syria, and Iraq, either into either surrender, occupation, or annihilation. Every day where they do not possess a nuke is a day where lives are being lost and cities are being bombed.
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The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.
Israel-Palestine Conflict
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on Israel’s destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia’s youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don’t want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it’s just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists’ side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR’s former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR’s forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster’s telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a ‘propaganda tax’, if you don’t believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
Radlibs: OMG this is just 1984 Stasi Kgb
New Simplicius report - Iranian Abyss: Will US Take the Plunge?
It’s premium so I can’t read it all but here’s the key parts of what I can access:
- Simplicius is now only more sure than ever that Israel expected the decapitation strikes to cause an immediate collapse, and when that did not happen, Israel was forced to go to Trump and get the US involved because Israel cannot handle a war of attrition with Iran (running out of interceptors to protect critical infrastructure)
- Simplicius believes the current Iranian strategy is to deliberately slow down the conflict and fight to their strengths (a long war of attrition) rather than their weaknesses (a shock and awe campaign). This is a campaign inspired by Russia’s actions in Ukraine. To conserve stockpiles, they send small volleys every day rather than dramatic overwhelming attacks that they can only do a few times before running out of missiles.
- These small volleys are overall more effective as the social and economic pressure of constant sirens and forcing Israelis into the bunkers will deal more damage in the long run. Israel apparently went into this conflict expecting only 5000 settler deaths before Iran is defeated because they expected a giant wave from Iran that killed many people at once and provided a clear American casus belli.
- There is no evidence to support Israeli claims of air domination over Iran. Israel is not flying planes over Iran for the most part; they are using drone strikes and cruise and ballistic missiles instead. This is supported by the fact that the footage we predominantly get out Israel shows drone video footage, and the numerous Israeli booster stages of missiles found in Iraq and Syria.
- The only piece of footage that Simplicius has seen of Israel hitting Iran with aircraft is a video of JDAMs striking Kermanshah, just 100km into the border of Iran, which would have meant Israel penetrated a couple dozen kilometers into Iran to drop them.
- Iranian long-range air defense has not been degraded at all. Israeli strikes are only evidenced on very old Mim-23 Hawks, short-range Karmin-2s, and the short/medium-range Khordad systems. The Bavar-373, an S-300 equivalent, shows no physical/video evidence of being degraded beyond mere Israeli claims, which are always very suspect.
- To be fair, this is because Iran has very probably withdrawn their long-range systems east towards Isfahan to protect against potential US bombing, and Iranian heavy missile launchers are following them east for the protection.
- Israel can’t safely fly directly over Iranian territory; they couldn’t even safely fly directly over Syrian territory until Jolani let them destroy Syria’s air defense, which was substantially weaker than Iran’s, and had to bomb Syria from behind Mount Lebanon before then. The US also could not safely fly over Yemeni territory, with F-35s launching stand-off strikes before they reached the border.
- That all this began shortly after Iran finished its major rail link with China is not a coincidence; deepening connections with the East represents an existential threat to the Western program to isolate and weaken Iran that they’ve been enacting over the decades.
- The West not only hopes to destroy Iranian nuclear sites, and not only wishes to enact regime change, but seeks to permanently divide Iran into a series of statelets from which it would be kept under pressure by dividing ethnic groups, preventing a future reconsolidation of the country.
There’s then a section on what the US can and cannot do but my free access ends there.
Simplicius also seems pretty sure about Iran’s abilities and about Israel’s weakness where he’s posted on Substack and Twitter.
@[email protected] apparently China just (not just , like 3 days ago) deployed 2x 815A electronic surveillance ships to the Persian Gulf which are some of their most modern platforms. They claimed its for antipiracy patrols but come on lol. So ,any thoughts on implications. Would it be just to pick up and collect data from f-35s and B2 deployments ? What intelligence/data sharing they could provide to iran, in real time or not, that can make a differenece defensively and offensively given whatever the capabilities iran still has. help with shot downs, ship targeting , early warning idk. Any change in movements and deployments they may force the US to do just by being there and the threat of the above?
A cope sci-fi scenario would be that China could position some j20 in bvr range or some AD battery hidden and actualy shot down a f35 or more so likely the bomber especially since the latter would have a predictable path to the nuclear site. Would the US missions even have awacs support themselves and would they be going in blind like Israel since Iran is a non threat for these platforms? Retrieving that would be very valuable for China tbh. Like if they shot smth down over iran how could the US even prove it? Iran would claim shotdown and the US would look like moron losers if they claimed china helped. Wont happen but its fun to imagine
https://nitter.privacyredirect.com/ME_Observer_/status/1935620132836950250#m
???
edit: this is the guy that is so much of a frothing at the mouth rabid fascist that even canada and the uk sanctioned him personally
useless, evidence free/vibe-based musings: look, obviously it’s no joke and anything could happen, but: I think Taco Trump is a real thing. we saw this in Trump 1, we’ve seen this with the tariff regimes – dude does not have the bandwidth or perseverance to commit to any big project. he wants to chill and hold court and rack up easy wins – he does not want a huge mess on his plate, he does not want to go to briefings everyday, he does not want to affectively cede power to the brass (which he will have to do if this blows up)*. he likes exploding Soleimani, he likes funding Ukraine pre-war (these are easy sops to the hardliners, where any blowback doesn’t immediately redound back to him). i think it’s clear that he is or feels obligated to appease the hardliners as he dismisses their grander plans.
and so i think the state of things is something like this: Trump really hopes that he can figure out a way to just drop a MOAB and claim a W an get out of there (i’m sure he doesn’t really care if it actually succeeds or not); the hardliners are putting their feet in the bargaining door by braying for immediate declaration of war, and Trump is appeasing them by at least gathering USA forces at the gates; and that’s good enough for the hardliners because it increases dramatically Iran intentionally or accidentally killing Americans and forcing Trump’s hand.
the upshot of this, i think, is for Iran to be cool. you don’t have to trust the americans; you can trust, assuming that you can establish a credible, durable threat of bombing imperial oil wells** and closing the straight, that Trump doesn’t want to light the commercial world on fire – that he doesn’t want to saddle himself with more work and meetings and his rich business colleagues yelling at him. he does not want the smoke.
*i really think that the threat of a loss of practical power to the institutional military is/has been a serious factor in producing Trump the dove. however, it may be now, in Trump 2, that this factor is diminished, if it’s the case that Trump was able to effectively remove the institutionalist neocons and replace them with loyalist MAGA deus volt freaks; then maybe he doesn’t care if they’re calling the shots.
**could be wrong here as well. i assume spiking the cost of oil would be bad for everyone, but the geopolitics/macro nerds in the thread might better explain that oil going up is bad for everyone but comparatively better for the US, and is a win actually.
Iran had the Honor to Ring the Closing Bell.
Hell yeah - what a news to wake up to… a freaking stockexchange bombed ! Never thought i see the day -
I hearby fully dissawov my privious doomerism.
Those that god wishes to destory - he first makes mad.
Can we talk about the liberal reaction here to the statements put out by the ICP, Tudeh, and Maki?
The Defeat of One’s Own Government in the Imperialist War read fully
Al Jazeera - emphasis mine.
‘Cowardly Iranian dictator’ fires at Israel from his ‘protected bunker’: Katz
Iran’s supreme leader “fires targeted shots at hospitals and residential buildings in Israel”, Israel Defence Minister Israel Katz was quoted as saying by the country’s Channel 12 broadcaster. These are war crimes of the most serious kind – and Khamenei will be held accountable for his crimes, the minister also said, according to the outlet.
Iran has stated via state media that the target of this morning’s strike was a military and intelligence facility adjacent to Soroka hospital, and our reporting has confirmed that the strike did not actually hit the medical centre. Katz added that he has instructed the Israeli military to increase “the intensity of attacks” against “strategic targets” in Iran.
Chinese workers in Iraq filming Iranian missiles:
https://xcancel.com/TripInChina/status/1935527988810141785https://nitter.poast.org/VoteRandyFine/status/1839686465820766542#m
the most normal us politician
🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
A most beautiful sight
Al Aqsa Flood war will see the defeat of flagships of the most advanced navy in the history of the human race.
God protect the resistance axis as they continue to humiliate and defeat the oppressors
New Zealand halts $16.9m (AUD) in funding to former colony Cook Islands after it signs an minearals, investment and trade deal with China worth $4m over five years.
Kia ore-a bruv
update on the iran internet situation: it’s basically already disconnected from the rest of the world. in the morning it’s better and im able to (with some really specific configuration) connect, but otherwise after 6 pm it’s dead.
on one hand in a statement they said that the disruptions are not because of cutting off the rest of the world but are due to israeli cyber attacks (which are not unfounded) but on the other hand many data centers became “iran access” (they can only access iranian ip ranges), as well as the normal restrictions they imposed right after the start of the war.
so if you guys aren’t getting any footage to doompost over it’s because the internet is broken. you can check it with netblocks to see when the internet is cut off.
