Image is of destruction and damage inside Israel, sourced from this article.
Iran and Israel have struck each other many times over the last few days. There has been a general focus on military facilities and headquarters by both sides, though Israel has also struck oil facilities, civilian structures and hospitals, and in return for this, Iran has struck major scientific centers and the Haifa oil facilities.
Israel appears to have three main aims. First, to collapse the Iranian state, either through shock and breakdown by killing enough senior officials, or via some sort of internal military coup. Second, to try and destroy Iranian nuclear sites and underground missile cities, or at least to paralyze them long enough to achieve the first and third goals. And third, to bring the US into a direct conflict with Iran. This is because the US better equipped to fight them than Israel is (though victory would still not be guaranteed depending on what Iran chooses to do).
Iranian nuclear facilities are hidden deep underground (800 meters), far beyond the depth range of even the most powerful bunker busters (~70 meters or so), and built such that the visible ground entrances are horizontally far away in an unknown direction from the actual underground chambers. Only an extremely competent full-scale American bombing force all simultaneously using multiple of the most powerful conventional (perhaps even nuclear) bunker busters could even hypothetically hope to breach them (and we have seen how, in practice, American bunker busters have largely failed to impair or deter Ansarallah). There are several analysts on both sides who have concluded that it is entirely impossible to physically prevent Iran from building nukes.
I fully expect the US to join the war. I believe the current ambiguity is a deliberate invention of the US while they work to move their military assets into position, and as soon as they are ready, the US will start bombing Iran. After that, Iran’s leadership must - if they haven’t already - harden their hearts, and strike back with no fear, or risk following the path of Libya, Syria, and Iraq, either into either surrender, occupation, or annihilation. Every day where they do not possess a nuke is a day where lives are being lost and cities are being bombed.
Last week’s thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.
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The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.
Israel-Palestine Conflict
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on Israel’s destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia’s youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don’t want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it’s just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists’ side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR’s former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR’s forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster’s telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a ‘propaganda tax’, if you don’t believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
Israel just issued an evacuation notice for the heavy water nuclear reactor/facility located near Arak, Iran.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IR-40
Unclear what Israel will target at the Arak complex, but they very well could directly hit a 40 Megawatt nuclear reactor. Could also directly hit the water treatment facility there. It’s also unclear to what extent IR-40 is operational, it might not be active at all. If it’s not active, this might be a repeat of “Operation Opera”, where Israel destroyed an incomplete nuclear reactor in Iraq in the 1980s, preventing it from becoming operational. Under the previous nuclear agreement (JCPOA), Iran was supposed to fill the core with concrete. But that agreement (with the US, European countries still participate) has long been over. Also:
Ali Akbar Salehi, the head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, was interviewed on Channel 4 TV (Iran) on January 22, 2019. He said that the negotiations surrounding the JCPOA had required Iran to destroy the Arak reactor’s calandria by filling it with cement, but that Iran had secretly acquired replacement tubes ahead of time so that the reactor’s functionality would not be ultimately affected. He also said that pictures that had circulated that showed the Arak reactor’s pit filled with cement had been photoshopped. He explained that Iran has no intention to build a nuclear weapon, and that the Arak reactor is nonetheless incapable of producing weapons-grade plutonium.
Israeli sources were talking about how tonight’s strikes on Iran would be considerably different hours ago, I guess this is what they meant.
The Guardian
Republican senator and Donald Trump loyalist Linsey Graham has said the US president should “finish the job” and authorise a strike on Iran’s nuclear facility at Fordow.
In a post on X he says the deeply buried site “must be dealt with to achieve the common objective of making sure Iran’s nuclear enrichment program ends.” The capabilities possessed by the United States for such a deep underground attack are unique to us and us alone. Overwhelmingly Americans view the Iran nuclear threat as existential to both the U.S. and Israel.” Graham has been a staunch ally to the president over both terms and is known in Washington as a foreign policy “hawk.”
Do we think China is even providing Intel to Iran on the movements of American military? That would be in their interest and would cost them nothing
CNN
Israel’s Air Force is currently conducting “a series of strikes” in Tehran and other areas of Iran, the Israel Defense Forces said early Thursday. Earlier, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said air defense systems had been activated over Tehran.
This is the real face of al Jazeera and Qatar by the way.
They are reporting this as a “Israel-Iran conflict” because of course.
ETA until some lib fascist uses “TACO” in a warhawk fashion?
Very telling that the United States has evacuated all its aircraft from bases within striking distance of Iran’s missiles, but not any of its soldiers. Tells you everything you need to know about their priorities.
Trump at the moment gives me the same vibes as an inexperienced cook who just accidentally started a pan fire and doesn’t know how to put it out safely. Maybe I’m being fooled but he seems to have no real plan while things get hotter and hotter.
“Axios”: Trump wants to ensure that the attack on Iran is “necessary” and that it will not lead to the United States being drawn into a prolonged war in the region
https://xcancel.com/ME_Observer_/status/1935474379409731979
“Concepts of a plan” encore
“I have ideas as to what to do,” Mr. Trump said during an Oval Office event. He added, “I like to make a final decision one second before it’s due, you know, because things change.”
Does anybody have info with at least a few salient details on this vagueness?
The Guardian
The US military has moved some aircraft and ships from bases in the Middle East that may be vulnerable to any potential Iranian attack, two US officials have told Reuters. The officials, who were speaking on the condition of anonymity, said the move was a part of planning to protect US forces. They declined to say how many aircraft or ships had been moved and where they would be going.
One of the officials said US naval vessels had been moved from a port in Bahrain, where the military’s 5th fleet is located, while aircraft that were not in hardened shelters had been moved from Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar. “It is not an uncommon practice. Force protection is the priority,” the official said. Iran has said to Washington that it will respond firmly to the United States if it becomes directly involved in Israel’s military campaign, the Iranian ambassador to the United Nations in Geneva said on Wednesday.
Rolling Stone article
Fox News Is Demanding War With Iran. Donald Trump Is Listening
Trump’s heavy consumption of Fox News content is increasing his appetite for direct military confrontation with Iran
Iranian air defenses report that they shot down a fifth Zionist F-35:
An Israeli F-35 fighter jet has been downed near the city of Varamin, about 35 kilometers in southeast of Tehran, the Varamin governor announced on Wednesday morning.
https://en.mehrnews.com/news/233287/Iran-downs-Israeli-F-35-fighter-jet-near-Tehran
