I’m not predicting a full secession. I am predicting an ambiguous balkanization - one where the federal government stays in place but much reduced in both size and control, essentially becoming domestically symbolic. It would maintain the military for international adventures, but it would probably reshuffle its domestic bases based on operational conditions. There would be skirmishes between states and between states and the feds and states or even regions would establish travel checkpoints, first to stop “drugs and illegals” but quickly to enforce abortion bans, transitioning bans, etc.

I don’t think we will see the USA dissolve to secession, but rather that balkanization will be functional and partial, not formal and absolute.