• quarrk [he/him]@hexbear.net
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      22 hours ago

      There are many intermediate steps that would need to happen before balkanization. I think large moneyed interests would step in long before it got to that point. Right now the political machine is still behind him; that could change.

      • freagle@lemmygrad.ml
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        21 hours ago

        Nah. Balkanization can easily be part of moneyed interests. Imagine the Florida and Texas state militias marching across the South deporting people and enforcing arbitrary shit and a bunch of other states banding together to stop it. The federal government would still work, but balkanization would still begin in earnest

        • quarrk [he/him]@hexbear.net
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          20 hours ago

          Texas and Florida are deeply wed to the nation, both economically and militarily and vice versa. Things would have to be far, far worse for that to ever materialize. It’s not in the material interest of the elites in those states, so it will continue to be a fantasy just like Texan secession has always been.

          • freagle@lemmygrad.ml
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            18 hours ago

            There was literally a stand of between the federal national guard and the Texas state militia during Biden. It’s not as far fetched as you think.

            • quarrk [he/him]@hexbear.net
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              4 hours ago

              There has been a secessionist minority in Texas basically since it joined the union. Conservative lawmakers have long played into the idea of Texan independence because it’s popular among constituents, but again, there is no real substance to it. It doesn’t have any more teeth than other deluded chauvinist movements that believe America can win any war. “We’ll show them why we don’t have healthcare” etc. There is no actual ability for the right wing nuts in Texas to actually divorce from the federal government. At most they will continue to perform stunts like the barbed wire fiasco under Biden that you alluded to.

              Texas is critical to the US national defense and military strategy, so it will never be allowed to happen. Texan elites also recognize correctly that they depend on the power of the US economically and military. While not exactly unviable on its own (I think Texas is well positioned geographically) the calculation just doesn’t work out in favor of secession.

              However I will concede that it would be funny if Texas seceded, so I’m not gonna argue against the idea too much harder

              • freagle@lemmygrad.ml
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                49 minutes ago

                I’m not predicting a full secession. I am predicting an ambiguous balkanization - one where the federal government stays in place but much reduced in both size and control, essentially becoming domestically symbolic. It would maintain the military for international adventures, but it would probably reshuffle its domestic bases based on operational conditions. There would be skirmishes between states and between states and the feds and states or even regions would establish travel checkpoints, first to stop “drugs and illegals” but quickly to enforce abortion bans, transitioning bans, etc.

                I don’t think we will see the USA dissolve to secession, but rather that balkanization will be functional and partial, not formal and absolute.

    • invalidusernamelol [he/him]@hexbear.net
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      18 hours ago

      Even the more protected US companies have ~30% of their intermediate product imported from China. Corning manufactured ~50% of all fiber optic telecommunications equipment for the whole US and they get 50% of their input products domestically, but that 30% from China will wreck the whole industry

  • jagged_circle@feddit.nl
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    12 hours ago

    Fuck both of these fascist assholes, but it’s fun to watch Xi twist his boot on Trump’s nose