My weekly preamble is in spoiler tags below.
preamble
As many predicted quite early on in this conflict, the US simply does not have the stockpiles nor production lines to maintain the firing rates we saw in March and April. There’s at least five strictly military problems:
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Not enough interceptors to shoot down Iranian missiles, and many missiles get through regardless. This includes a dearth of interceptors in the Zionist entity proper.
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Not enough stand-off munitions to cause a real breakdown of Iran’s military and society. There’s enough left in the submarines and in whatever stockpiles they have mustered to give one last very serious barrage before they’re just completely out (unless they start taking all their missiles out of the Pacific and Europe), but even if this is done, this shock and awe failed the first time around, and the missile cities have proven impregnable to Western military technology.
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Not enough penetration of Iranian airspace to allow a transition from stand-off bombs to their near-endless supply of glide/gravity bombs. On the edges of Iranian territory it can be possible, but doing so any further inside causes exponential risk to the bombers. Notably, Reaper drones can carry JDAMs, hence why they continue to be used so much despite how often they’re getting shot down.
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Not enough naval power to reopen Hormuz. Otherwise, the US could hypothetically wait out Iran and exert economic and covert pressure to encourage political collapse; with Hormuz in Iran’s hands, the US’s delaying tactics favor Iran instead.
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Not enough functioning and safe bases from which to launch counterattacks. Due to debasification (a word that has now spread far and wide after Amerikanet’s coining, lol), the US has been pushed back away from the Gulf. This dangerously overpopulates rear bases with planes and makes it so sortie rates are reduced due to how much distance you have to travel and how many refuelers you need per bomber.
No angry proclamations, media offensives, or tacky AI image posts can change this reality, and boy is Trump putting out a lot of that last one. This is why, after the two weeks of attacks we just saw, we see the US very reticent to try and escalate further, and Trump’s threat over last weekend to really start bombing Iran did not occur. This is being reflected in the US media, with several worried articles talking about how there just aren’t enough missiles to keep the conflict going much longer. One of the only options left is to use ground/special forces to do… something, though pretty much no matter what target he selects, it’s hard to imagine it breaking Iran, or doing much to end the conflict, or even being a successful operation past the point where you’ve landed troops somewhere. We saw the “pilot rescue” (uranium heist) operation fail and aborted before the forces could even step foot off the runway they landed on.
It is into this environment that Ansarallah has suddenly declared a blockade of Saudi Arabia - an architect of the blockade of Yemen and one of the major causes of the country’s internal divisions between Ansarallah and comprador groups - and is turning their ships around at the entrance to the Red Sea, thereby cutting off a good chunk of the Saudi’s remaining oil exports. Ansarallah has proven they were not interested in some cautious, gradual climb up the escalation ladder; when the Saudis hit a couple Yemeni port facilities, they went ahead and hit Jazan and Yanbu so hard that the fires were still raging a day or two after the initial strikes. The US is apparently asking for the MoU back, and this time with Ansarallah also placated, but it appears Iran is much less interested in the MoU now after it was thoroughly violated by the US the first time - and if it does return to it, it might have much more hardline demands.
Last week’s thread is here.
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The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on the Zionists’ destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don’t want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it’s just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists’ side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR’s former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR’s forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster’s telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a ‘propaganda tax’, if you don’t believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
Trump has once again stated that he expects the United States to gain control of Greenland before the end of his presidential term.
In an interview with Real America’s Voice, the interviewer reminded Trump of his “prediction” that by the time his term ends, Greenland would be “under our operational control.”
“Yes, you will be right to bet on that. Greenland is very important – from our point of view, not theirs [Denmark’s],” the U.S. President replied.
Previously, Trump has repeatedly stated that Washington should gain control of Greenland, citing national security concerns and U.S. strategic interests in the Arctic. Denmark and the authorities of Greenland itself reject the possibility of the island being transferred to U.S. control.
- Slava Intel
Iran’s Armed Forces enter the highest state of readiness, changing to wartime protocols. Iran struck an oil tanker 11 nautical miles off the coast of Oman, per UKMTO.
- Middle East Spectator
The president downplayed the impact of actions by US President Donald Trump and statements by Argentine President Javier Milei on the 2026 elections: “Let whoever wants to come. I’m not afraid. I don’t want outside help.”
“As long as I live, the far right will not govern this country again. And I’ll say more, I’ll say that whoever wants to help them can come. If Trump wants to come, let him come. If Milei wants to come, let him come. Whoever wants to come, come. I don’t want outside help. The only help I want is the help of the Brazilian people so that we can maintain democracy in this country,” he stated.
Article
President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) stated this Friday (31) that the extreme right will not govern Brazil again while he is alive and downplayed the actions of the President of the United States, Donald Trump , and the Argentine President, Javier Milei , to support opposition candidates in the race for the Presidency of the Republic. The president’s speech was made during the PT’s state party convention in Ceará, which confirmed Elmano de Freitas as the candidate for governor of the state .
“As long as I live, the far right will not govern this country again. And I’ll say more, I’ll say that whoever wants to help them can come. If Trump wants to come, let him come. If Milei wants to come, let him come. Whoever wants to come, come. I don’t want outside help. I’m not afraid of them. The only help I want is the help of the Brazilian people so that we can maintain democracy in this country,” he stated.
At the event, held in Fortaleza on Friday night (31), Lula also showed support for the candidacies of Cid Gomes (PSB) as senator and Gabriella Aguiar (PSD) as vice-governor. Also on Friday (31), the president visited the University Hospital of Ceará , in Fortaleza.
During his speech, the Workers’ Party member also mentioned that he will need candidates for the Senate in the 2026 elections because the House “is half rotten and we need to get the Senate to do things right.”
The diplomatic crisis between Brazil and Argentina began after Milei participated in the PL party convention, which launched Flávio Bolsonaro as a presidential candidate. During his speech, Milei called President Lula a “thief ,” Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes “bald trash,” and criticized the Brazilian government and economy.
The Brazilian government responded by summoning the Argentine ambassador in Brasília to provide clarifications . It also recalled the Brazilian ambassador in Buenos Aires for consultations, a measure adopted during times of tension between countries.
Since then, officials from both governments have exchanged further statements. Milei again criticized Lula on social media. In Brazil, government officials responded to the Argentine president’s remarks, while Lula avoided escalating the confrontation when commenting on the episode.
An explosion has been heard near Eslamabad-e-Gharb, Iran. Unexploded ordnance from the Iran-Iraq war, according to Tasnim
- Middle East Spectator
spirit wants some action tooA projectile hit a vessel 11 nautical miles northeast of Lima, Oman early today
https://xcancel.com/bonzerbarry/status/2083229124756115961
Trump: Iran is doing very poorly, just in case you read incorrect stories, they’re doing very very poorly-they’re having a hard time. Their missiles have been largely-they have some left, they have some, but they have far fewer than they had four or five months ago. Their manufacturing capacity is… almost gone. The drone capacity is almost gone, they have very few. But they have some. We’re in there 5 months, I know people like to say-because we’re doing a much bigger job, a much more important job than we originally anticipated. We’re in for 5 months and we have obliterated their military capacity. Again they’ve got some left, but soon they won’t have some left.
Reporter: You said that they do have some capabilities left, should Americans be prepared for these back and forth attacks until Iran is simply unable to strike back?
Trump: They’ll get weaker, they’ll get weaker, they’ll get stronger maybe…now, but they’ll get weaker, and then they peter out-uhhhhh yeah sure, I think so.
https://xcancel.com/Midnight_Dasher/status/2083236752655876415
Special Uhhhhhh They’ll Peter Out I Think Operation. The SUTPOITO
Operation They’ll Get Stronger Maybe
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning issued a statement in support of Cuba:
“The US needs to immediately stop threatening the use of force against Cuba, and stop any form of unilateral sanctions and blockade against Cuba,” Mao told reporters.
China will continue firmly supporting Cuba in defending its national sovereignty and opposing external interference, the Chinese diplomat added.
The Russian military recently struck a US-owned drone factory in Kiev:
A July 24 Russian attack on the Ukrainian capital hit a drone factory belonging to Terminal Autonomy – a Delaware-HQ’ed maker of low-cost UAV and AI navigation systems.
The attack deprived Ukraine’s military of a key long-range strike drone capability in the form of AQ-400 Scythe (32kg payload, 750km range) and AQ-100 Bayonet (4kg, 60km) drones.
More importantly, it sent Zelensky’s NATO “partners” an unmistakable message: if they set up shop in Ukraine, their manufacturing facilities will be targeted.
US planning massive bombardments of Iran energy targets per CBS
U.S., Israel preparing to bombard energy-related targets in Iran, sources say
[edit] Axios now says that the final order has not been given yet. This leads me to believe that the final order has been given and strikes start tonight.
[edit2] CNN also claims no final call has been made
I hope that Iran is planning to attack the airports as soon as they see a larger than usual number of aicraft taking off.
F-35B stealth fighter crashed in California, US Marine Corps says
must have put too many plates on the radar mount. Ego lifting is dangerous folks
US nears full withdrawal from Iraq as bases in Kurdistan region face attacks from Iran, proxies
Patriot air defense systems that detect and shoot down incoming missiles, drones and other airborne enemy equipment have already been removed, sources told Al-Monitor.
more
The United States military has started to draw down its last remaining forces from Iraq stationed in the vicinity of Erbil airport in the Iraqi Kurdistan region, well-placed sources with close knowledge of the process confirmed to Al-Monitor. Patriot mobile air to surface air defense systems that detect and shoot down incoming missiles, drones and other airborne enemy equipment have already been removed from the military compound, the sources said, without providing further details. The pullout started last week and is ongoing, with the bulk of the US forces and their heavy equipment out, the sources said. “All” of the Patriot anti-missile batteries had been redeployed to an undisclosed destination, the sources said, adding that other defensive weapons systems remained in place as of the time of publication of this article. Regional officials described the pullout as “routine” and in line with the US commitment to withdraw all its forces from Iraq by a Sept. 30 deadline that was agreed with Baghdad.
However, coming amid sustained attacks by Iran and its Shiite proxy militias, and on the Kurdistan Region of Iraq in particular, the withdrawal, especially of the Patriots, has left the Kurds feeling badly exposed.
Centcom spokesman Capt. Tim Hawkins declined to comment on any ongoing troop movements. Kurdistan Regional Government officials did not respond to Al-Monitor’s request for comment. While the systems were deployed to protect US forces, the Kurds have benefited immensely from the security umbrella as well. Erbil airport has come under constant attack from Iran and Iran-backed militias since the start of the Iran conflict in February, including this week. US interceptors successfully deterred at least 95% of those attacks, the sources said. The bulk of Iranian and militia attacks have targeted armed Iranian Kurdish opposition groups based in the Kurdistan region. However, the Erbil compound has also been targeted multiple times. The Patriots have an operational range of between 60 to 100 miles. Removing the Patriots is a double edged sword. One the one hand they defend ground troops, on the other they have become targets themselves, Michael Knights, head of research at Horizon Engage, a New York-based consultancy, told Al-Monitor.
The US pull out will not necessarily spell an end to US Iraqi military cooperation with US Special Forces deployed at discrete low profile locations, Knights added. US forces in Iraq are particularly vulnerable due to Iraq’s shared border with Iran and the continued aggression of the Iran-backed groups that are actively engaged in the conflict hitting “enemy” targets in Iraq and in the Gulf. Iraq’s new prime minister, Ali Al Zaidi, despite robust pledges to rein in the Iran-backed militias and disarm and demobilize them by Sept. 30 has so far failed to do so, as witnessed by their recent attacks against Saudi oil fields, prompting Saudi Arabia to overtly team up with US forces to carry out retaliatory strikes across Iraq this week.
The removal of the Patriots in advance of a near full withdrawal of US troops on the ground has raised further questions about US stockpiles of interceptors and how the US military is now prioritizing their deployment to protect troops elsewhere in the region. “The Kurdistan region is not a priority, the Gulf and Jordan clearly are,” one of the sources, speaking on strict condition of anonymity, said.
overstretched empire hours
A study published by the Center for International and Strategic Studies based in Washington shed light on the diminishing resources amid the breakdown of the US Iranian ceasefire and of the ensuing memorandum of understanding that was struck between the sides in May. Building on an earlier study that was issued in April when the ceasefire was reached showing that 55% of the Patriot stockpile had been lost, this week’s report noted that their numbers had gone down by a further 10%. The United States produces 183 of the interceptors per year.
Likely final statement on Pengshui landslide:
- 51 Fatalities, 10 missing. A total of 11 people were removed from the rubble after the collapse.
- 10,000 tons of rock have been removed, down to the previous ground levels before the landslide.
- The post-2000s civil servant that people were thirsting over has been confirmed to have died.
- Recovery efforts have also been happening in the water below the landslide site as well as downstream, there have been a significant number of underwater dives already and in the past week.
- Further survivors are unlikely.
In terms of public sentiment, I haven’t seen a ton of positivity towards rescue workers on XHS- mostly just neutral hope for the survival of people affected. The civil servant (people on XHS refer to him as a “grid worker” but I’m not clear on the distinction) has been the main source of pride, as he (and his female counterpart who survived) were both evacuating people up until they were hit by the landslide.
I don’t know what the correct way to express gratitude for the rescue workers is as someone half a world away, but I would like to thank everyone involved in the rescue efforts.
Trump complains that Iran lies about discussing nuclear. He says he’s angry. President First Grader.
CBS News - Trump says he’s “losing faith” in ability to make deal with Iran. President Trump indicated during a Cabinet meeting Friday he’s not certain he’ll be able to make a deal with Iran due to their dishonesty.
“I’m losing faith in them, because they do lie and they do misrepresent. [The] other day, the five missiles [Iran] shot, we knocked them down, we were in the midst of a negotiation. I’m waiting for Steve [Witkoff] to call me, ‘How was the negotiation going?’ and instead I got a call from Pete [Hegseth] that they just shot five missiles at one of our bases in Jordan.”
Mr. Trump praised Witkoff, son-in-law Jared Kushner and Vice President JD Vance for their efforts in negotiating but said of Iran, “They break their word so often.”
“As an example, we will talk about nuclear and we will be in there talking about nuclear for seven hours. Then they will go out and I will say, ‘They discussed nuclear,’ and they will say, 'We never discussed nuclear,” the president said of Iran. “And I will say, ‘Why did they say that?’ All they do is make me angry, you know? They just make me angry.”
